![weather and climate: engaging youth](http://s1.studyres.com/store/data/015507884_1-89e8b56e449b52d2f893d773ea7d0f69-300x300.png)
Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change
... [Polvani and Kushner, 2002; Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The IPCC/AR4 models show this as well, as can be seen in Figure 1c [see also Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The westerly jet, whose location is identified by the location of the maximum zonal wind at 850 hPa, shifts poleward even in the absence of ...
... [Polvani and Kushner, 2002; Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The IPCC/AR4 models show this as well, as can be seen in Figure 1c [see also Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The westerly jet, whose location is identified by the location of the maximum zonal wind at 850 hPa, shifts poleward even in the absence of ...
Detectability of Anthropogenic Changes in Annual Temperature and
... 2002). To address this issue, we study changes in extreme rainfall and minimum and maximum temperature from two coupled climate models. The models, which are introduced below, are unrelated (they have different ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice components). By using two models we can extend the perfect ...
... 2002). To address this issue, we study changes in extreme rainfall and minimum and maximum temperature from two coupled climate models. The models, which are introduced below, are unrelated (they have different ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice components). By using two models we can extend the perfect ...
Species-specific ecological niche modelling predicts different range
... throughout the South American continent since 1901, and will continue to do so over the coming century [1]. These changes are anticipated to alter the distribution and risk of contracting vector-borne diseases, due to the impact of bioclimatic conditions on the development, behaviour and lifespan of ...
... throughout the South American continent since 1901, and will continue to do so over the coming century [1]. These changes are anticipated to alter the distribution and risk of contracting vector-borne diseases, due to the impact of bioclimatic conditions on the development, behaviour and lifespan of ...
On multiple solutions of the atmosphere–vegetation system in
... a grid cell covered by vegetation and forest, respectively), and leaf area index (area of leaves covering 1 m2 surface area), are taken as constant with respect to time depending only on the biome type (see section on Coupling of the atmospheric and biome components). ECHAM is able to simulate the p ...
... a grid cell covered by vegetation and forest, respectively), and leaf area index (area of leaves covering 1 m2 surface area), are taken as constant with respect to time depending only on the biome type (see section on Coupling of the atmospheric and biome components). ECHAM is able to simulate the p ...
Future change of the Indian Ocean basin
... the important fluxes of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs and may in some cases include interactive prognostic aerosol, chemistry, and dynamical vegetation components (Taylor et al. 2012). Thus, CMIP5 models may have larger ...
... the important fluxes of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs and may in some cases include interactive prognostic aerosol, chemistry, and dynamical vegetation components (Taylor et al. 2012). Thus, CMIP5 models may have larger ...
Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes
... southeast Asia. It usually breeds in transient water bodies in tree holes, and shows the ability to colonize human-made containers in urban and peri-urban areas [1]. This species lays drought-resistant eggs, which, in an urban setting, are deposited in a number of containers, including discarded use ...
... southeast Asia. It usually breeds in transient water bodies in tree holes, and shows the ability to colonize human-made containers in urban and peri-urban areas [1]. This species lays drought-resistant eggs, which, in an urban setting, are deposited in a number of containers, including discarded use ...
The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models
... ENSO intensity is found to increase gradually from the preindustrial simulation to the historical simulation and to the RCP4.5 projection, while the EP ENSO intensity is found to increase and then decrease during these three climate conditions. However, it should be cautioned that the changes of ENS ...
... ENSO intensity is found to increase gradually from the preindustrial simulation to the historical simulation and to the RCP4.5 projection, while the EP ENSO intensity is found to increase and then decrease during these three climate conditions. However, it should be cautioned that the changes of ENS ...
Global trends in extreme precipitation
... 19 subsampled data sets of CMIP5 on global as well as continental scales, showing observations (HadEX2) as blue circles. The boxplots show the minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile and maximum values obtained from the climate models. As seen in Fig. 2a., the global average of extreme pre ...
... 19 subsampled data sets of CMIP5 on global as well as continental scales, showing observations (HadEX2) as blue circles. The boxplots show the minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile and maximum values obtained from the climate models. As seen in Fig. 2a., the global average of extreme pre ...
Dust Storm Modeling
... Transcontinental transport of microorganisms Kellogg, Griffin, 2005: Fungal diseases, affecting crops like sugarcane and bananas, have appeared in the Caribbean within a few days after an outbreak in Africa. Bacterial pathogens of rice and beans in the Caribbean air samples, as well as those that c ...
... Transcontinental transport of microorganisms Kellogg, Griffin, 2005: Fungal diseases, affecting crops like sugarcane and bananas, have appeared in the Caribbean within a few days after an outbreak in Africa. Bacterial pathogens of rice and beans in the Caribbean air samples, as well as those that c ...
- Wiley Online Library
... this method using an ensemble of 10 simulations with a single model, producing an ensemble standard deviation in ToE for each of the three regions considered later in Section 4 of less than 3 years (not shown). [9] To estimate the noise in SAT we utilise each GCM’s pre-industrial control simulations ...
... this method using an ensemble of 10 simulations with a single model, producing an ensemble standard deviation in ToE for each of the three regions considered later in Section 4 of less than 3 years (not shown). [9] To estimate the noise in SAT we utilise each GCM’s pre-industrial control simulations ...
european weather derivatives - Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
... Some countries do not have long enough historical records of the quality of data needed. The data from each country may be provided in a different format. ...
... Some countries do not have long enough historical records of the quality of data needed. The data from each country may be provided in a different format. ...
Numerical weather prediction
![](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:FilePath/AtmosphericModelSchematic.png?width=300)
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.