Severe weather and UK food chain resilience
... return time may be realised as two consecutive “bad years” in a decade, rather than an event every five years. Furthermore, recent research indicates that changes in the Atlantic circulation may be responsible for the consecutive wet summers we have experienced in the last decade 12, and that this c ...
... return time may be realised as two consecutive “bad years” in a decade, rather than an event every five years. Furthermore, recent research indicates that changes in the Atlantic circulation may be responsible for the consecutive wet summers we have experienced in the last decade 12, and that this c ...
Appendix D: Economic modelling and adaptation to climate change
... processes. These equations are used to simulate how various sectors and activities might respond to changes to the environment, economy or policy settings. Partial equilibrium models Partial equilibrium models focus on how changes affect a particular firm or sector. These models are used to estimate ...
... processes. These equations are used to simulate how various sectors and activities might respond to changes to the environment, economy or policy settings. Partial equilibrium models Partial equilibrium models focus on how changes affect a particular firm or sector. These models are used to estimate ...
Hydrological cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basins as
... their quality due to huge inter-model structural differences; (ii) climate models’ output do not form a sample from any well-defined probability distribution. Moreover, GCMs feature systematic spatio-temporal biases. Therefore, taking the ensemble mean as the representative output from the multimode ...
... their quality due to huge inter-model structural differences; (ii) climate models’ output do not form a sample from any well-defined probability distribution. Moreover, GCMs feature systematic spatio-temporal biases. Therefore, taking the ensemble mean as the representative output from the multimode ...
Printer-friendly Version
... (WMME) of different statistical downscaling models to quantify the uncertainty in downscaling of monthly precipitation. Three statistical downscaling models are used to test the multi-model ensemble on the Clutha catchment in New Zealand. The first selected downscaling model is a weather generator m ...
... (WMME) of different statistical downscaling models to quantify the uncertainty in downscaling of monthly precipitation. Three statistical downscaling models are used to test the multi-model ensemble on the Clutha catchment in New Zealand. The first selected downscaling model is a weather generator m ...
An ensemble analysis to predict future habitats of striped marlin
... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were obtained from the website of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI; http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/) for three warming scenarios: lower (SRES B1), medium (SRES A1B), and higher (SRES A2) greenhouse gas emissions. The scena ...
... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were obtained from the website of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI; http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/) for three warming scenarios: lower (SRES B1), medium (SRES A1B), and higher (SRES A2) greenhouse gas emissions. The scena ...
15A.3 THE IMPACT OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ON
... In this study, the thermodynamic impact of anthropogenic climate change on maximum TC intensity was investigated. The methodology used here utilizing analyzed data to represent the average environment in which current TCs st form, GCM output to assess 21 century changes in SST, air temperature, and ...
... In this study, the thermodynamic impact of anthropogenic climate change on maximum TC intensity was investigated. The methodology used here utilizing analyzed data to represent the average environment in which current TCs st form, GCM output to assess 21 century changes in SST, air temperature, and ...
The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present
... The term “Earth System processes”, as used in climate modelling, generally refers to the set of equations describing physical, chemical and biological processes within and between the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. There is no strict definition of which proc ...
... The term “Earth System processes”, as used in climate modelling, generally refers to the set of equations describing physical, chemical and biological processes within and between the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. There is no strict definition of which proc ...
Multi-Model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes
... Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July–August temperature extremes over China. The pattern cor ...
... Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July–August temperature extremes over China. The pattern cor ...
Improving predictions and management of hydrological extremes
... Second, also in today’s practice of digesting hydrometeorological information into a decision support system, many improvements can still be realised. These improvements, for instance, concern a better climatology of current risk, a better observational record of extreme events and their impacts, a ...
... Second, also in today’s practice of digesting hydrometeorological information into a decision support system, many improvements can still be realised. These improvements, for instance, concern a better climatology of current risk, a better observational record of extreme events and their impacts, a ...
a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation
... and minimum correlations are determined. Their ranking according to RMS value is shown in Fig. 2 (lower panel). This shows that the analogues with high, median or low correlations roughly yield low, medium and high RMS values, although correlations and RMS values are generally not correlated in time ...
... and minimum correlations are determined. Their ranking according to RMS value is shown in Fig. 2 (lower panel). This shows that the analogues with high, median or low correlations roughly yield low, medium and high RMS values, although correlations and RMS values are generally not correlated in time ...
“It Was Raining All the Time!”: Ex Post Tourist Weather Perceptions
... respondents recalled several negative experiences, these were not treated hierarchically, as it is unclear how memories interrelate, or whether the experience recalled first is the most influential one in terms of, for example, future travel planning behavior. Negative holiday experiences were categ ...
... respondents recalled several negative experiences, these were not treated hierarchically, as it is unclear how memories interrelate, or whether the experience recalled first is the most influential one in terms of, for example, future travel planning behavior. Negative holiday experiences were categ ...
Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: Scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments
... In this study, the breadth of the scenario set is constrained by the condition that modeling and approaches are grounded in scientific theory and published in the peer-reviewed literature. Our constraint is supported by Lempert et al. (2003), which suggests that an ensemble of scenarios should aim to ...
... In this study, the breadth of the scenario set is constrained by the condition that modeling and approaches are grounded in scientific theory and published in the peer-reviewed literature. Our constraint is supported by Lempert et al. (2003), which suggests that an ensemble of scenarios should aim to ...
Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high
... the model-data comparisons. The climate change in mid- to late Holocene, as recorded in the proxy data, is defined as the difference between the 500-year averages for two periods, that is, 6 ka minus 0 ka. More specifically, for the proxy data, this means the difference between the 500-year periods ...
... the model-data comparisons. The climate change in mid- to late Holocene, as recorded in the proxy data, is defined as the difference between the 500-year averages for two periods, that is, 6 ka minus 0 ka. More specifically, for the proxy data, this means the difference between the 500-year periods ...
The World Meteorological Organization at a glance
... Meteorological Centres. These are bolstered by 16 operational meteorological and 50 environmental research satellites. The WMO Integrated Global Observing System acts as an umbrella for these observational networks, using the WMO Information System to connect together all regions for data exchange, ...
... Meteorological Centres. These are bolstered by 16 operational meteorological and 50 environmental research satellites. The WMO Integrated Global Observing System acts as an umbrella for these observational networks, using the WMO Information System to connect together all regions for data exchange, ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.