Based on CFS - Dr. R. Krishnan - Indian Institute of Tropical
... •Wide variations and uncertainties among the IPCC AR4 models in capturing the mean monsoon rainfall over South Asia (eg., Kripalani et al. 2007, Annamalai et al. 2007). •Systematic biases in simulating the spatial pattern of present-day mean monsoon rainfall (eg., Gadgil and Sajani, 1998; Kripalani ...
... •Wide variations and uncertainties among the IPCC AR4 models in capturing the mean monsoon rainfall over South Asia (eg., Kripalani et al. 2007, Annamalai et al. 2007). •Systematic biases in simulating the spatial pattern of present-day mean monsoon rainfall (eg., Gadgil and Sajani, 1998; Kripalani ...
Using Biogeochemical Process Models to Quantify Greenhouse Gas
... sequestration at the national level, but these methods become less accurate as spatial scale decreases from the regional level to local and site levels and they do not account for many of the management practices that are expected to reduce emissions (e.g., changing fertilizer type). Thus, these met ...
... sequestration at the national level, but these methods become less accurate as spatial scale decreases from the regional level to local and site levels and they do not account for many of the management practices that are expected to reduce emissions (e.g., changing fertilizer type). Thus, these met ...
Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to
... structure in¯uence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO2 concentration and clim ...
... structure in¯uence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO2 concentration and clim ...
The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts
... the climate models, fall far short of capturing the scale and nature of what might happen to lives and livelihoods. Scientists are keenly aware of these issues and are actively working on them. This paper is primarily addressed to economists. The economic models, which build on the science models, a ...
... the climate models, fall far short of capturing the scale and nature of what might happen to lives and livelihoods. Scientists are keenly aware of these issues and are actively working on them. This paper is primarily addressed to economists. The economic models, which build on the science models, a ...
Do not let the dead bite! Different scenarios of the zombie epidemic
... Inference in a Zombie Outbreak Model, “Department of Mathematics and Statistics Research Report” 2010, No. 6, p. 1; P. Munz, I. Hudea, J. Imad, R. J. Smith, When Zombies Attack!: Mathematical Modelling of An Outbreak of Zombie Infection, [in:] Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress, eds. J. ...
... Inference in a Zombie Outbreak Model, “Department of Mathematics and Statistics Research Report” 2010, No. 6, p. 1; P. Munz, I. Hudea, J. Imad, R. J. Smith, When Zombies Attack!: Mathematical Modelling of An Outbreak of Zombie Infection, [in:] Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress, eds. J. ...
Durham Research Online
... rising greenhouse gas concentrations. So scientists attempt to represent these processes and interactions mathematically and then estimate solutions to these equations (taking small time steps) with the help of computers; the goal is to simulate how Earth’s climate would change if greenhouse gas emi ...
... rising greenhouse gas concentrations. So scientists attempt to represent these processes and interactions mathematically and then estimate solutions to these equations (taking small time steps) with the help of computers; the goal is to simulate how Earth’s climate would change if greenhouse gas emi ...
3. STRAW MAN 1: A PRELIMINARY VIEW OF THE TROPICAL
... bution as input. Thus, attempts to answer the question of what maintains the temperature and heat flux distributions become entangled in circular reasoning. In these models (summarized in DeConto et al., 2000), the surface freshwater balance is also not given a self-consistent treatment because real ...
... bution as input. Thus, attempts to answer the question of what maintains the temperature and heat flux distributions become entangled in circular reasoning. In these models (summarized in DeConto et al., 2000), the surface freshwater balance is also not given a self-consistent treatment because real ...
Probabilistic projections of climate change over China - HAL-Insu
... scenario. Data from 28 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are used. The methodology consists of ranking the 28 models, based on their ability to simulate climate over China in terms of two model evaluation metrics. Different weights were then given to the models according t ...
... scenario. Data from 28 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are used. The methodology consists of ranking the 28 models, based on their ability to simulate climate over China in terms of two model evaluation metrics. Different weights were then given to the models according t ...
effective cross-border monitoring systems for waterborne microbial
... (2) A data communications network and management subsystem that provides rapid access to diverse data from many sources; (3) A data-assimilation and analysis (conceptual, statistical and numerical models; geographic information systems) subsystem for the provision of data and information in formats ...
... (2) A data communications network and management subsystem that provides rapid access to diverse data from many sources; (3) A data-assimilation and analysis (conceptual, statistical and numerical models; geographic information systems) subsystem for the provision of data and information in formats ...
Analysis of Existing Weather and Climate Information for Malawi
... performing model validation, and producing forecasts given updated data. Its design has been tailored for producing seasonal climate forecasts using model output statistic (MOS) corrections to climate predictions from general circulation models (GCMs), or for producing forecasts using fields of sea- ...
... performing model validation, and producing forecasts given updated data. Its design has been tailored for producing seasonal climate forecasts using model output statistic (MOS) corrections to climate predictions from general circulation models (GCMs), or for producing forecasts using fields of sea- ...
4 Modelling impacts of drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem
... can induce range expansion; Lavergne et al. 2010). Thus responses to environmental changes derived directly or indirectly from human activities may be either related to changes in the environment itself, to the biological processes acting within ecosystems or, more frequently, to the combination of ...
... can induce range expansion; Lavergne et al. 2010). Thus responses to environmental changes derived directly or indirectly from human activities may be either related to changes in the environment itself, to the biological processes acting within ecosystems or, more frequently, to the combination of ...
Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a
... globally-averaged precipitation rate decreased. A comparison of further quantities among the published studies is difficult because not all of them published the same parameters. Some differences among simulations were however mentioned. Irvine et al. (2010) report that they needed a solar constant ...
... globally-averaged precipitation rate decreased. A comparison of further quantities among the published studies is difficult because not all of them published the same parameters. Some differences among simulations were however mentioned. Irvine et al. (2010) report that they needed a solar constant ...
Soil drying in Europe and its impact on atmospheric
... soil wetness is to affect the surface Bowen ratio (sensible heat flux H divided by latent heat flux LE), thereby determining the surface heating and moisture supply to the atmosphere. Higher order effects can be the subsequent change of the stratification of the atmosphere, its ability to trigger or ...
... soil wetness is to affect the surface Bowen ratio (sensible heat flux H divided by latent heat flux LE), thereby determining the surface heating and moisture supply to the atmosphere. Higher order effects can be the subsequent change of the stratification of the atmosphere, its ability to trigger or ...
Annex C: Simulated Changes in Vegetation Distribution under
... largely based on the relationship between leaf area and site water balance and the simulated changes in leaf area and site water balance should be generally reliable (especially with respect to the sign of the change). The aggregated vegetation classes used for this analysis are as follows. 1. Tundr ...
... largely based on the relationship between leaf area and site water balance and the simulated changes in leaf area and site water balance should be generally reliable (especially with respect to the sign of the change). The aggregated vegetation classes used for this analysis are as follows. 1. Tundr ...
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
... great uncertainties that affect the simulated trend (e.g., climate sensitivity, rate of heat uptake by the deep-ocean, and aerosol forcing strength) make this a highly dubious statement. For example, a model with a relatively high climate sensitivity can simulate the 20th century climate changes rea ...
... great uncertainties that affect the simulated trend (e.g., climate sensitivity, rate of heat uptake by the deep-ocean, and aerosol forcing strength) make this a highly dubious statement. For example, a model with a relatively high climate sensitivity can simulate the 20th century climate changes rea ...
Scheduling Ambulance Crews for Maximum Coverage
... availability of the service resources. In other words, once an ambulance is introduced into the system, it is assumed to be active at any given time. However, this is usually not the case in real world applications because of the human element involved. As prescribed by laws and legislations governi ...
... availability of the service resources. In other words, once an ambulance is introduced into the system, it is assumed to be active at any given time. However, this is usually not the case in real world applications because of the human element involved. As prescribed by laws and legislations governi ...
Climate policy implications of the hiatus in global warming
... changes to the global average temperature, which is called “climate sensitivity,” has proven very difficult to pin down. Since the late 1970s, climate models have reported estimates of long term sensitivity from doubling atmospheric CO2 levels ranging from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C, thus covering a span from ...
... changes to the global average temperature, which is called “climate sensitivity,” has proven very difficult to pin down. Since the late 1970s, climate models have reported estimates of long term sensitivity from doubling atmospheric CO2 levels ranging from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C, thus covering a span from ...
Uncertainty Modeling to Relate Component Assembly Uncertainties to Physics-Based Model Parameters
... modeled accurately. This capability allows the response metric to be modeled using the observable or measured variables and not a derived quantity. The derived variable, for example, is an initial penetration in a finite element model and the observable variables are the friction coefficients and to ...
... modeled accurately. This capability allows the response metric to be modeled using the observable or measured variables and not a derived quantity. The derived variable, for example, is an initial penetration in a finite element model and the observable variables are the friction coefficients and to ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.