Biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes simulated by
... much longer time scale than is achievable with AGCMs. Earth system models of intermediate complexity are computationally efficient and are able to carry out sensitivity simulations on centennial to millennial time scales, while at the same time maintaining realistic geography, and incorporating necess ...
... much longer time scale than is achievable with AGCMs. Earth system models of intermediate complexity are computationally efficient and are able to carry out sensitivity simulations on centennial to millennial time scales, while at the same time maintaining realistic geography, and incorporating necess ...
Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications
... atmospheric CO2. The uncertainties around future projections may increase by up to 20%, but this is because of our greater understanding of the processes and our ability to quantify that knowledge. Rowlands et al. (2012) recently explored the amount of uncertainty inherent in complex models by runni ...
... atmospheric CO2. The uncertainties around future projections may increase by up to 20%, but this is because of our greater understanding of the processes and our ability to quantify that knowledge. Rowlands et al. (2012) recently explored the amount of uncertainty inherent in complex models by runni ...
Atmospheric fronts in current and future climates
... Here data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis data set, ERA-Interim [Dee et al., 2011], are extracted every 6 hours at 1.5◦ resolution. The temperature and specific humidity at 850 hPa are used to calculate the wet-bulb potential temperature, and the zonal and mer ...
... Here data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis data set, ERA-Interim [Dee et al., 2011], are extracted every 6 hours at 1.5◦ resolution. The temperature and specific humidity at 850 hPa are used to calculate the wet-bulb potential temperature, and the zonal and mer ...
Lesson Plan The Tuskegee Weathermen
... Meteorologists rely on LOTS of data from the past in order to accurately predict future weather. In order to measure weather conditions, they need to build instruments that can measure different aspects of the weather such as temperature, wind, air pressure, and other factors. In this activity, stud ...
... Meteorologists rely on LOTS of data from the past in order to accurately predict future weather. In order to measure weather conditions, they need to build instruments that can measure different aspects of the weather such as temperature, wind, air pressure, and other factors. In this activity, stud ...
Rapid Climate Change Science Plan
... processes: In addition to observing change in the THC overturning rate the programme will support studies to learn more about which northern high latitude processes and regions are responsible for the observed changes. Observations show significant changes over the past few decades in the temperatur ...
... processes: In addition to observing change in the THC overturning rate the programme will support studies to learn more about which northern high latitude processes and regions are responsible for the observed changes. Observations show significant changes over the past few decades in the temperatur ...
Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large
... et al. 2014), but developing useful models at this scale has been limited by the availability of time series data at large spatial extents and statistical methods for fitting high-dimensional spatial models. Fortunately, new advances in remote sensing and statistics now allow us to overcome both of ...
... et al. 2014), but developing useful models at this scale has been limited by the availability of time series data at large spatial extents and statistical methods for fitting high-dimensional spatial models. Fortunately, new advances in remote sensing and statistics now allow us to overcome both of ...
Using a maximum simplicity paleoclimate model to simulate
... the fluctuations we observe and measure in paleoclimatic data. On the other hand, the construction and application of models without data, against which their results are critically compared and evaluated, exposed and critically evaluated, remains an undertaking that is remote from useful scientific l ...
... the fluctuations we observe and measure in paleoclimatic data. On the other hand, the construction and application of models without data, against which their results are critically compared and evaluated, exposed and critically evaluated, remains an undertaking that is remote from useful scientific l ...
Coupled General Circulation Modeling
... forcings. (Example: What climate state is in equilibrium with twice the preindustrial level of atmospheric CO2?) • Transient: The goal is to investigate the timedependent response of the climate to a given (often time-dependent) change. (Example: How will the climate change in response to projected ...
... forcings. (Example: What climate state is in equilibrium with twice the preindustrial level of atmospheric CO2?) • Transient: The goal is to investigate the timedependent response of the climate to a given (often time-dependent) change. (Example: How will the climate change in response to projected ...
Print Version
... perfect in their discretized, parameterized representation of the climate system. Long-term commitment of resources to model and assimilation system development will pay off with improved climate information on all time scales. In order to address longstanding systematic model errors, the community ...
... perfect in their discretized, parameterized representation of the climate system. Long-term commitment of resources to model and assimilation system development will pay off with improved climate information on all time scales. In order to address longstanding systematic model errors, the community ...
An hybrid multiscale model for immersed granular flows
... flows with respect to the scale at which the flow is modeled [2]. At large scale, the grains are introduced in the fluid in an implicit way. On one hand, some models consider the medium as a mixture described as a non newtonian fluid [3]. On the other hand, the grains can be introduced via a dissipative ...
... flows with respect to the scale at which the flow is modeled [2]. At large scale, the grains are introduced in the fluid in an implicit way. On one hand, some models consider the medium as a mixture described as a non newtonian fluid [3]. On the other hand, the grains can be introduced via a dissipative ...
the journal Nature Climate Change
... sum of albedo, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud feedbacks. Cloud feedback is the dominant source of model spread5. Such feedbacks are strongly related to regional phenomena, so that the global mean is determined by integrated regional-scale effects (for example, ice albedo feedback). At continenta ...
... sum of albedo, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud feedbacks. Cloud feedback is the dominant source of model spread5. Such feedbacks are strongly related to regional phenomena, so that the global mean is determined by integrated regional-scale effects (for example, ice albedo feedback). At continenta ...
Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events
... 2. Methodologies and their validation The projection of future climate change at the scale of the century relies on the use of climate model simulations that represent the only way to account for the complex interactions and feedback between and within the different components of the climate system. ...
... 2. Methodologies and their validation The projection of future climate change at the scale of the century relies on the use of climate model simulations that represent the only way to account for the complex interactions and feedback between and within the different components of the climate system. ...
4B.4 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WEATHER ON
... percent of the time nationwide. This indicates that fatal accidents on wet pavement occur 3.9 to 4.5 times more often than might be expected, and that the wetpavement accident problem should be of concern to all States (NTSB 1980). Other studies have noted the persistent problem of wet pavement expo ...
... percent of the time nationwide. This indicates that fatal accidents on wet pavement occur 3.9 to 4.5 times more often than might be expected, and that the wetpavement accident problem should be of concern to all States (NTSB 1980). Other studies have noted the persistent problem of wet pavement expo ...
Csc_ADS_2011 - University of Minnesota
... General Circulation Models: Mathematical models with physical equations based on fluid dynamics Cell ...
... General Circulation Models: Mathematical models with physical equations based on fluid dynamics Cell ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.