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Here - Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Here - Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

... The need for downscaling is particularly urgent for mountainous regions. Mountain regions provide important environmental services, such as water supply for adjacent, drier lowlands (Viviroli et al., 2010), but they are also particularly fragile to environmental change. Many of the meteorological, h ...
Impact of Climate Change on Annual Cooling and
Impact of Climate Change on Annual Cooling and

... Similar previous studies have been conducted on future weather data and assessing the effect of climate change on building energy consumption. For example, Belcher and Hacker (2005) developed a method for producing future weather data, known as the morphing method, and Crawley (2008) used the morphi ...
Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to
Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to

... ate increases in extreme temperature. There are small areas of decrease in the Labrador Sea and Southern Ocean that are associated with changes in ocean circulation. The changes in the return values of daily minimum temperature (Fig. 1b) are larger than those of daily maximum temperature over land ...
VMS-300 Datasheet - AC-DC POWER SUPPLY | CUI Inc
VMS-300 Datasheet - AC-DC POWER SUPPLY | CUI Inc

... CUI offers a two (2) year limited warranty. Complete warranty information is listed on our website. CUI reserves the right to make changes to the product at any time without notice. Information provided by CUI is believed to be accurate and reliable. However, no responsibility is assumed by CUI for ...
climate change and the hydrological cycle
climate change and the hydrological cycle

(SPARC) (Thomas Peter, ETH Zurich)
(SPARC) (Thomas Peter, ETH Zurich)

Bopp et al, 2013
Bopp et al, 2013

Modeling the Monsoons in a Changing Climate
Modeling the Monsoons in a Changing Climate

Future deforestation in the Amazon and consequences
Future deforestation in the Amazon and consequences

An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

... These models include literally thousands of dynamical variables (the state of each grid point is described by a number of variables such as temperature and pressure). Collectively these variables form the model’s state space X . The time evolution of these variables is hoped to mirror the evolution ...
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Document

... Increasing Temp=Increasing water Vapor (more greenhouse) Effect is expected to ‘amplify’ warming through a ‘feedback’ ...
Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change from
Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change from

Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic
Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic

... and parasite biology are strongly affected by patterns of daily temperature fluctuation in addition to mean conditions (Paaijmans et al. 2009, 2010). Climate model (coupled Atmosphere–ocean General Circulation Model) simulation data are available and can be used for projecting potential climate chan ...
A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and
A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and

Multi-model climate change projections for India under
Multi-model climate change projections for India under

Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes

Weather, Climate, and Worldviews: The Sources
Weather, Climate, and Worldviews: The Sources

... to pose particularly high risks. Fatalists are the least ‘‘active’’ cultural type. They consider themselves subject to binding external constraints, yet they feel excluded from membership in important social groups. Believing that they have little control over their lives, they view their fate to be ...
The Community Climate System Model
The Community Climate System Model

... that was grafted onto the atmosphere model, a sea-ice model, and a “flux coupler” that facilitates information exchanges among the component models with their differing grids. This version of the model produced a successful 300-yr simulation of the current climate without artificial flux adjustments ...
LLoyd's Science of Risk Conference Booklet 2012
LLoyd's Science of Risk Conference Booklet 2012

First International Workshop on the “Responses of Marine Hazards
First International Workshop on the “Responses of Marine Hazards

... are  still  common  problems  both  in  ocean  and  climate  numerical  models.  Over  the  recent  years,  significant  progress  has  been  made  by  Dr.  Fangli  Qiao  and  his  group  on  the  establishment  of  a  new  wave‐circulation coupled theory through which the  wave‐induced  vertical  m ...
Challenges and opportunities in research on climate, weather, water
Challenges and opportunities in research on climate, weather, water

... Organization (IMO) have provided leadership in the international coordination of scientific assessments, research and development, in particular concerning societal issues related to weather, climate, water and the environment. In 2007, the Fifteenth World Meteorological Congress called for a new ap ...
UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections
UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections

Precipitation and Temperature
Precipitation and Temperature

... Traditional K-NN approaches have been found to underestimate the occurrence of wet and dry spells (Apipattanavis et al., 2007). Another drawback is that the reshuffling procedure results in a loss of the temporal correlation structure of daily climate variables. The extreme values in the output data ...
Talk 1
Talk 1

... there is a vertical dimension because atmospheric processes change as you move vertical above the Earth’s surface. ...
Impacts of global warming on hydrological Introduction of multi-model ensembles and
Impacts of global warming on hydrological Introduction of multi-model ensembles and

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Numerical weather prediction



Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.
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