Natural and forced air temperature variability in the Labrador region
... surface climatology to the anomaly series. A regional areaweighted mean was calculated using the fraction of total land cover in each cell to compensate for coastal biases in the meteorological network. For comparison with the BEST regional series, we provide the regional anomalies from the Cowtan a ...
... surface climatology to the anomaly series. A regional areaweighted mean was calculated using the fraction of total land cover in each cell to compensate for coastal biases in the meteorological network. For comparison with the BEST regional series, we provide the regional anomalies from the Cowtan a ...
svcrproc
... ergy demand and supply. It was mainly used for GHG emission forecast over next one century. AIM/CGE (Energy) is a general equilibrium model focused on energy sectors to analyze the relationship between emissions and international trade. It was frequently used for the assessment of Kyoto Mechanism su ...
... ergy demand and supply. It was mainly used for GHG emission forecast over next one century. AIM/CGE (Energy) is a general equilibrium model focused on energy sectors to analyze the relationship between emissions and international trade. It was frequently used for the assessment of Kyoto Mechanism su ...
Climate change, phenological shifts, eco
... Schneider 1995; Root et al. 2003). The correlative approach is embedded in the mechanistic approach and there is continuous exchange between the two. It is not realistic to aim for an understanding of all causal relationships underlying eco-evolutionary processes and to translate them into a set of ...
... Schneider 1995; Root et al. 2003). The correlative approach is embedded in the mechanistic approach and there is continuous exchange between the two. It is not realistic to aim for an understanding of all causal relationships underlying eco-evolutionary processes and to translate them into a set of ...
Doney_2002_JGOFS_Syn..
... Early three-dimensional basin and global scale calculations (e.g., Sarmiento et al., 1993; Six and Maier-Reimer, 1996) also were conducted with single, uniform PZND ecosystem models applied across the entire domain. These experiments demonstrated that large-scale features, such as the contrast betwe ...
... Early three-dimensional basin and global scale calculations (e.g., Sarmiento et al., 1993; Six and Maier-Reimer, 1996) also were conducted with single, uniform PZND ecosystem models applied across the entire domain. These experiments demonstrated that large-scale features, such as the contrast betwe ...
Will the Present-day Scientific Approaches Enable to Forecast
... That is so, the more factors are observed, the better the revelation will be. That is theoretically true. However, in practice, when the link between these factors is expressed in mathematical terms, then the correlation coefficient of this link becomes smaller, which means decrease of the degree o ...
... That is so, the more factors are observed, the better the revelation will be. That is theoretically true. However, in practice, when the link between these factors is expressed in mathematical terms, then the correlation coefficient of this link becomes smaller, which means decrease of the degree o ...
Northern Hemispheric cryosphere response to volcanic eruptions in
... and Feulner, 2013] have suggested that it is possible to induce long-term cooling given closely spaced multiple volcanic eruptions. Zhong et al. [2010] used the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM3 model) at T42 resolution to test whether or not a long-term ...
... and Feulner, 2013] have suggested that it is possible to induce long-term cooling given closely spaced multiple volcanic eruptions. Zhong et al. [2010] used the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM3 model) at T42 resolution to test whether or not a long-term ...
7. Agriculture
... variable from year to year, and recurrent drought and flood problems often affect entire countries over multi-year periods. These often result in serious social problems. For example, the persistent drying trend in parts of Africa over the past decades has affected food production, including freshwa ...
... variable from year to year, and recurrent drought and flood problems often affect entire countries over multi-year periods. These often result in serious social problems. For example, the persistent drying trend in parts of Africa over the past decades has affected food production, including freshwa ...
Future Climate Projections around Turkey by Global Climate Models
... As a large-scale feature, future precipitation in this region will decrease throughout the year. It is noted that future precipitation will significantly decrease over the Mediterranean and the surrounding region including Middle East in winter. A positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation-like pa ...
... As a large-scale feature, future precipitation in this region will decrease throughout the year. It is noted that future precipitation will significantly decrease over the Mediterranean and the surrounding region including Middle East in winter. A positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation-like pa ...
Volume 3: Climate and Global Change and Risks
... The central problem of the modern theory of climate is the prediction of its changes caused by anthropogenic activities. In view of specific peculiarities of the climate system this problem cannot be solved with the use of the conventional methods repeatedly tested in natural sciences. It can be sta ...
... The central problem of the modern theory of climate is the prediction of its changes caused by anthropogenic activities. In view of specific peculiarities of the climate system this problem cannot be solved with the use of the conventional methods repeatedly tested in natural sciences. It can be sta ...
Will Amazonia Dry Out? Magnitude and Causes of Change from
... ecosystem dynamics, and an increase in evaporative demand due to the general warming. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. Although the IPCC models have substantial intermodel variation in precipitatio ...
... ecosystem dynamics, and an increase in evaporative demand due to the general warming. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. Although the IPCC models have substantial intermodel variation in precipitatio ...
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation
... 3. Do the Answers Provide Actionable Information?. Its popularity notwithstanding, this method has questionable credentials as a provider of actionable local information. This conclusion can be reached from at least three different directions. We comment only briefly on the first two: detailed analysi ...
... 3. Do the Answers Provide Actionable Information?. Its popularity notwithstanding, this method has questionable credentials as a provider of actionable local information. This conclusion can be reached from at least three different directions. We comment only briefly on the first two: detailed analysi ...
Computational data sciences may offer a path
... 1.3.1 Overview of Research Areas: 1. Extremes Characterization Extremes may be characterized based on their relevance to impacts (e.g., heat waves based on nighttime minima, which relates to human discomfort and possible loss of lives: Meehl and Tebaldi 2004) or through statistical distributions (e. ...
... 1.3.1 Overview of Research Areas: 1. Extremes Characterization Extremes may be characterized based on their relevance to impacts (e.g., heat waves based on nighttime minima, which relates to human discomfort and possible loss of lives: Meehl and Tebaldi 2004) or through statistical distributions (e. ...
Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change
... carbon cycle, climate response, and damages, and cascade to the costs and benefits of different policy objectives. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of uncertainty of major outcomes for climate change using multiple integrated assessment models (IAMs). The six models used in the ...
... carbon cycle, climate response, and damages, and cascade to the costs and benefits of different policy objectives. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of uncertainty of major outcomes for climate change using multiple integrated assessment models (IAMs). The six models used in the ...
PHYS575 Syllabus - Atmospheric Physics 1
... Runaway ice age and sensitivity to solar output. Snowball Earth and the effects on the Atmosphere How fast can ocean and atmosphere freeze? Will thawing overshoot and create a hot and violent atmosphere? ...
... Runaway ice age and sensitivity to solar output. Snowball Earth and the effects on the Atmosphere How fast can ocean and atmosphere freeze? Will thawing overshoot and create a hot and violent atmosphere? ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.