Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate
... indices considered here. Next, we compared the observed linear trends in the indices over the first and second halves of the 20th century, as well as the whole century, with anthropogenically forced (GS) model simulations (Fig. 2). The uncertainty in the forced model response was reduced by using th ...
... indices considered here. Next, we compared the observed linear trends in the indices over the first and second halves of the 20th century, as well as the whole century, with anthropogenically forced (GS) model simulations (Fig. 2). The uncertainty in the forced model response was reduced by using th ...
What is the Difference between Weather and Climate
... instead the integrated efforts of several agencies. Some Federal Agencies Studying Climate In the 1980s the National Weather Service established the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), known at the time as the Climate Analysis Center (CAC). The CPC is best known for its United States climate forecasts ...
... instead the integrated efforts of several agencies. Some Federal Agencies Studying Climate In the 1980s the National Weather Service established the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), known at the time as the Climate Analysis Center (CAC). The CPC is best known for its United States climate forecasts ...
cс Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society
... gives more plausible results for use in impact assessments. This gives rise to an additional source of uncertainty due to calibration indeterminacy. Previous impact assessments have identified various sources of uncertainties in impact projections: uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, unc ...
... gives more plausible results for use in impact assessments. This gives rise to an additional source of uncertainty due to calibration indeterminacy. Previous impact assessments have identified various sources of uncertainties in impact projections: uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, unc ...
Clouds Have Made Fools of Climate Modelers
... Clouds have made fools of climate modelers. A detailed analysis of cloud behavior from satellite data by Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville shows that clouds actually provide a strong negative feedback, the opposite of that assumed by the climate modelers. The modelers confus ...
... Clouds have made fools of climate modelers. A detailed analysis of cloud behavior from satellite data by Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville shows that clouds actually provide a strong negative feedback, the opposite of that assumed by the climate modelers. The modelers confus ...
Challenges of a Changing Earth: Past Perspectives, Future Concerns
... from over. In particular, a comprehensive understanding of variability on societally-relevant timescales (years to several decades) will require an enormous expansion in paleo-research. Prediction of ENSO activity, for example, will not be fully achieved as long as the full spectrum of ENSO variabil ...
... from over. In particular, a comprehensive understanding of variability on societally-relevant timescales (years to several decades) will require an enormous expansion in paleo-research. Prediction of ENSO activity, for example, will not be fully achieved as long as the full spectrum of ENSO variabil ...
white paper - UCAR President`s Office
... global-‐scale conditions that impact severe storm development. In addition, the university community strongly supports the need for the sophisticated integration of the social sciences in the design and exec ...
... global-‐scale conditions that impact severe storm development. In addition, the university community strongly supports the need for the sophisticated integration of the social sciences in the design and exec ...
Global Change Impact Studies Centre and its Activities
... initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, then Special Advisor to the Chief Executive of Pakistan and now Special Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Seed money for this activity was provided by the Ministry of Science & Technology. Since July 2003 the Centre is being supported by the Finance Division ...
... initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, then Special Advisor to the Chief Executive of Pakistan and now Special Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Seed money for this activity was provided by the Ministry of Science & Technology. Since July 2003 the Centre is being supported by the Finance Division ...
The Projected Death of the Fertile Crescent
... clearly illustrates that the annual stream flow is projected to decrease in the future in all rivers over the Middle East. Kitoh et al. (2008a) show that the annual discharge for the Euphrates River will decrease by 29 % in a moderate climate change and by 73 % in the higher climate change (FM & FH ...
... clearly illustrates that the annual stream flow is projected to decrease in the future in all rivers over the Middle East. Kitoh et al. (2008a) show that the annual discharge for the Euphrates River will decrease by 29 % in a moderate climate change and by 73 % in the higher climate change (FM & FH ...
Multi-model trends in the Sahara induced by increasing CO2
... keeps stable at about +0.15° latitude during the first 20 years then moves northward and reaches about 0.55° latitude further north by year 70. Such a northward shift trend is similar to the PCM ensemble runs as shown in Figure 4f of Liu 2001. The CO2 doubling experiments have shown an intensificati ...
... keeps stable at about +0.15° latitude during the first 20 years then moves northward and reaches about 0.55° latitude further north by year 70. Such a northward shift trend is similar to the PCM ensemble runs as shown in Figure 4f of Liu 2001. The CO2 doubling experiments have shown an intensificati ...
Deputy Secretary-General
... well known. For example, there is a higher probability of dry conditions in the western and southern Southwest Pacific. Incidence of drought is more likely in places such as Australia as well as parts of Southern Africa and northeast Brazil. Wetter than average conditions are often observed in the n ...
... well known. For example, there is a higher probability of dry conditions in the western and southern Southwest Pacific. Incidence of drought is more likely in places such as Australia as well as parts of Southern Africa and northeast Brazil. Wetter than average conditions are often observed in the n ...
lecture02erk
... Sea Level Pressure Leading 10 or 9 is not plotted Examples: 1013.8 plotted as 138 998.7 plotted as 987 1036.0 plotted as 360 ...
... Sea Level Pressure Leading 10 or 9 is not plotted Examples: 1013.8 plotted as 138 998.7 plotted as 987 1036.0 plotted as 360 ...
Interesting times: winners, losers, and system shifts under climate
... or vice versa, with no dynamic feedback between them). IAMs represent key features of human systems (such as demography, energy use, technology, emissions, land use, and the economy) and simplified representations of the climate, ecosystems, and associated economic impacts (i.e. damage functions). T ...
... or vice versa, with no dynamic feedback between them). IAMs represent key features of human systems (such as demography, energy use, technology, emissions, land use, and the economy) and simplified representations of the climate, ecosystems, and associated economic impacts (i.e. damage functions). T ...
Atmospheric science: Extreme La Niña events to increase
... colleagues3 find a robust agreement among climate models concerning changes in La Niña — extreme events will become more frequent with global warming. Usually, the eastern tropical Pacific is dry and cool, whereas the western Pacific is characterized by the warmest waters of the world ocean, accompa ...
... colleagues3 find a robust agreement among climate models concerning changes in La Niña — extreme events will become more frequent with global warming. Usually, the eastern tropical Pacific is dry and cool, whereas the western Pacific is characterized by the warmest waters of the world ocean, accompa ...
Comparison of explicitly simulated and downscaled
... with large regional and model-to-model variations (Knutson et al., 2010). The large variation in the results among different models and downscaling techniques warrants some caution in interpreting these findings. In particular, the various downscaling techniques are subject to their own limitations, ...
... with large regional and model-to-model variations (Knutson et al., 2010). The large variation in the results among different models and downscaling techniques warrants some caution in interpreting these findings. In particular, the various downscaling techniques are subject to their own limitations, ...
Methods S1.
... Expanded Methods: Modeling Approach A JAVA-based mathematical model heart was developed in which a modeled subject’s end-of-life CM age distributions, defined by the modeled subject’s lifespan and CM turnover dynamics could be computed. These age distributions were produced by initializing the model ...
... Expanded Methods: Modeling Approach A JAVA-based mathematical model heart was developed in which a modeled subject’s end-of-life CM age distributions, defined by the modeled subject’s lifespan and CM turnover dynamics could be computed. These age distributions were produced by initializing the model ...
Office of Science
... • Model Analyses to improve our understanding of the climate system including – Distinction between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change – Extreme event representation and attribution – Understanding the feedbacks and interactions between processes within the climate system ...
... • Model Analyses to improve our understanding of the climate system including – Distinction between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change – Extreme event representation and attribution – Understanding the feedbacks and interactions between processes within the climate system ...
3.1.3 Intensification of the hydrological cycle – An important signal of
... decades despite of a reduction of solar radiation that reaches early spring (Fig. 3.1.3-2c). Here, the seasonal distribution the soil. LIEPERT et al. (2004) show that the reduction of of discharge is largely influenced by the onset of the solar radiation by clouds and aerosols can only partly be sno ...
... decades despite of a reduction of solar radiation that reaches early spring (Fig. 3.1.3-2c). Here, the seasonal distribution the soil. LIEPERT et al. (2004) show that the reduction of of discharge is largely influenced by the onset of the solar radiation by clouds and aerosols can only partly be sno ...
Predictive modelling polychaeta
... and ANN predictions was higher within the range of the original data set, but lower outside of this range. After conversion of the predicted outcomes to a binary coding (using the cut-off values), a number of performance indicators were calculated (Table 2). In a paired t-test the CCI, specificity an ...
... and ANN predictions was higher within the range of the original data set, but lower outside of this range. After conversion of the predicted outcomes to a binary coding (using the cut-off values), a number of performance indicators were calculated (Table 2). In a paired t-test the CCI, specificity an ...
Temporal Data Models
... user-defined time: Date, Time, Timestamp Table I (temporal relational data models): – 14 “valid time” models – 3 “transaction time” models – 9 “valid and transaction time” models ...
... user-defined time: Date, Time, Timestamp Table I (temporal relational data models): – 14 “valid time” models – 3 “transaction time” models – 9 “valid and transaction time” models ...
Vegetation and Biogeochemical Scenarios (Chapter 2) from the
... functions of the biogeography module are:(1) to simulate the composition of deciduous/evergreen, needleleaf/broadleaf tree and C 3/C4 grass life-form mixtures from climatic thresholds;and (2) to classify those woody and herbaceous life forms into different vegetation classes based on their biomass ( ...
... functions of the biogeography module are:(1) to simulate the composition of deciduous/evergreen, needleleaf/broadleaf tree and C 3/C4 grass life-form mixtures from climatic thresholds;and (2) to classify those woody and herbaceous life forms into different vegetation classes based on their biomass ( ...
MPSAC Climate Change White Paper
... and the likely impact of changes in future emissions. Models are run on different geographical scales, from local to regional and global, and a broad range of temporal scales, from minutes to decades or longer. As the magnitude of the scales increase, so does the model complexity. The broad scales o ...
... and the likely impact of changes in future emissions. Models are run on different geographical scales, from local to regional and global, and a broad range of temporal scales, from minutes to decades or longer. As the magnitude of the scales increase, so does the model complexity. The broad scales o ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.