Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?
... estimate of approximately 1000 ppmv); taken along with our understanding of the physics of the atmosphere and radiation and the greenhouse effect, this is consistent with the idea that increases in CO2 can have a large influence on the Earth system. However, without well-constrained proxy evidence fo ...
... estimate of approximately 1000 ppmv); taken along with our understanding of the physics of the atmosphere and radiation and the greenhouse effect, this is consistent with the idea that increases in CO2 can have a large influence on the Earth system. However, without well-constrained proxy evidence fo ...
Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian
... et al., 2006; Ueda et al., 2006). High-resolution model simulations reveal that a weakening of the south-westerly monsoon winds can in turn reduce orographic precipitation over the Western Ghat mountains (see Krishnan et al., 2013; Rajendran et al., 2012). The satellite-derived soil moisture data fr ...
... et al., 2006; Ueda et al., 2006). High-resolution model simulations reveal that a weakening of the south-westerly monsoon winds can in turn reduce orographic precipitation over the Western Ghat mountains (see Krishnan et al., 2013; Rajendran et al., 2012). The satellite-derived soil moisture data fr ...
Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s - e
... with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IP ...
... with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IP ...
Linking the global and the regional ‐ what means
... predictions from dynamical (or other) models represents a kind of „attribution without detection“. This is in particular useful, when time series of insufficient length are available or the signal-to-noise level is too low. The idea is to estimate the driver-related change from a (series of) model s ...
... predictions from dynamical (or other) models represents a kind of „attribution without detection“. This is in particular useful, when time series of insufficient length are available or the signal-to-noise level is too low. The idea is to estimate the driver-related change from a (series of) model s ...
Sensitivity of tree growth to the atmospheric vertical profile in the
... dieback. However, in a review of the simulation models, Loehle and Leblanc (1996) warned that the implemented climate-response functions used to draw these scenarios had no basis in plant physiology. Therefore, many of these scenarios may have exaggerated the direct impact of future warming on tree ...
... dieback. However, in a review of the simulation models, Loehle and Leblanc (1996) warned that the implemented climate-response functions used to draw these scenarios had no basis in plant physiology. Therefore, many of these scenarios may have exaggerated the direct impact of future warming on tree ...
Clouds in a Warmer Climate: Friend or Foe?
... concentrations help to accelerate the warm rain process (e.g. Pruppacher and Klett, 2001). More importantly, the vertical distance between the cloud base and the height of the freezing level (the height of the 0 °C isotherm) increases by 600-700 m from the “past” environment to the future environmen ...
... concentrations help to accelerate the warm rain process (e.g. Pruppacher and Klett, 2001). More importantly, the vertical distance between the cloud base and the height of the freezing level (the height of the 0 °C isotherm) increases by 600-700 m from the “past” environment to the future environmen ...
2.3 Climate Scenarios
... • GCMs provide projections for each grid point, which represent average values for a grid. • The risk studies for water resources or ecosystems often require climate projections for a smaller area and may need daily weather data. Thus, as mentioned, spatial and temporal downscaling processes are ne ...
... • GCMs provide projections for each grid point, which represent average values for a grid. • The risk studies for water resources or ecosystems often require climate projections for a smaller area and may need daily weather data. Thus, as mentioned, spatial and temporal downscaling processes are ne ...
an advanced envelope-based selection approach
... experiments. The four selected RCPs are considered to be representative of the scientific literature and include one mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two medium stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP6) and one very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5) (van Vuuren et al., 2011a). RCP2.6 is representati ...
... experiments. The four selected RCPs are considered to be representative of the scientific literature and include one mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two medium stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP6) and one very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5) (van Vuuren et al., 2011a). RCP2.6 is representati ...
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation
... and the list could go on.5 An ever-increasing number of private consultancies also offer similar climate change products, usually based on publicly available data.6 In sum, questions about future local climate are, today, mostly answered by using state-of-the-art GCMs combined with downscaling. 3. “ ...
... and the list could go on.5 An ever-increasing number of private consultancies also offer similar climate change products, usually based on publicly available data.6 In sum, questions about future local climate are, today, mostly answered by using state-of-the-art GCMs combined with downscaling. 3. “ ...
Improved Integrated Urban Wastewater System Operational Control
... Operational control optimisation has the potential to improve the quality of water under the considered climate change scenarios. Operational control optimisation under the combined climate change with urbanisation scenarios can improve the water quality indicators to some extent. RD has more ...
... Operational control optimisation has the potential to improve the quality of water under the considered climate change scenarios. Operational control optimisation under the combined climate change with urbanisation scenarios can improve the water quality indicators to some extent. RD has more ...
Using a maximum simplicity paleoclimate model to simulate
... data. On the other hand, the construction and application of models without data, against which their results are critically compared and evaluated, exposed and critically evaluated, remains an undertaking that is remote from useful scientific learning. No single climate model is able to provide defin ...
... data. On the other hand, the construction and application of models without data, against which their results are critically compared and evaluated, exposed and critically evaluated, remains an undertaking that is remote from useful scientific learning. No single climate model is able to provide defin ...
The Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation in Global Warming
... of about 280 ppmv (Neftel et al. 1988) to values of over 360 ppmv at the end of the 1990s (Keeling and Whorf 1994). Since it cannot be expected that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will be drastically reduced in the near future, many modeling studies have already been addressing the possi ...
... of about 280 ppmv (Neftel et al. 1988) to values of over 360 ppmv at the end of the 1990s (Keeling and Whorf 1994). Since it cannot be expected that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will be drastically reduced in the near future, many modeling studies have already been addressing the possi ...
Response of hydrological processes to climate change in
... theoretical viewpoint, a physical model represents the underlying hydrological and land surface processes in greater detail than conceptual or statistical models (Beven, 2001). The SWAT model is a conceptual physically-based model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for e ...
... theoretical viewpoint, a physical model represents the underlying hydrological and land surface processes in greater detail than conceptual or statistical models (Beven, 2001). The SWAT model is a conceptual physically-based model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for e ...
Unrestricted versus restricted factor analysis of multidimensional test
... To sum up, our examination of 51 published applications demonstrated the magnitude of the problem, because virtually none of them reached a good fit from a statistical point of view and in most cases the fit was also unacceptable according to measures of fit alternative to the χ² test. Delimitation ...
... To sum up, our examination of 51 published applications demonstrated the magnitude of the problem, because virtually none of them reached a good fit from a statistical point of view and in most cases the fit was also unacceptable according to measures of fit alternative to the χ² test. Delimitation ...
The African contribution to the global climate
... model. The COU simulation leads to a global surface warming of 3.7 K by 2100 and an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 807 ppm. The UNC simulation, with no climate change, leads to a CO2 concentration of 776 ppm, The difference, i.e. 31 ppm, is due to a decrease of both land and ocean carbon uptake un ...
... model. The COU simulation leads to a global surface warming of 3.7 K by 2100 and an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 807 ppm. The UNC simulation, with no climate change, leads to a CO2 concentration of 776 ppm, The difference, i.e. 31 ppm, is due to a decrease of both land and ocean carbon uptake un ...
What`s New: A Guide for IDRISI Users
... Agriculture’s EcoCrop database, modeling sea level rise impact, downscaling climate projections, and the derivation of bioclimatic variables. With CCAM, you can, for example: • Generate global temperature and precipitation climate scenarios using any one, or an ensemble, of 20 atmosphere/ocean gene ...
... Agriculture’s EcoCrop database, modeling sea level rise impact, downscaling climate projections, and the derivation of bioclimatic variables. With CCAM, you can, for example: • Generate global temperature and precipitation climate scenarios using any one, or an ensemble, of 20 atmosphere/ocean gene ...
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
... In Europe, at the edge of a continent, changes in temperature are caused to a large extent by changes in atmospheric circulation (Osborn and Jones, 2000; Turnpenny et al., 2002; van Oldenborgh and van Ulden, 2003). To investigate the effects of trends in the atmospheric circulation, monthly mean tem ...
... In Europe, at the edge of a continent, changes in temperature are caused to a large extent by changes in atmospheric circulation (Osborn and Jones, 2000; Turnpenny et al., 2002; van Oldenborgh and van Ulden, 2003). To investigate the effects of trends in the atmospheric circulation, monthly mean tem ...
Climate change, phenological shifts, eco
... is embedded in the mechanistic approach and there is continuous exchange between the two. It is not realistic to aim for an understanding of all causal relationships underlying eco-evolutionary processes and to translate them into a set of equations. Hence, models will include correlations, which ma ...
... is embedded in the mechanistic approach and there is continuous exchange between the two. It is not realistic to aim for an understanding of all causal relationships underlying eco-evolutionary processes and to translate them into a set of equations. Hence, models will include correlations, which ma ...
Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change from
... average temperature, like precipitation and wind, their patterns and intensities. More frequent and intense extreme events are expected, and the possibility is not ruled out of exceeding systemic thresholds for climate variables causing abrupt changes, with potentially much more dangerous consequenc ...
... average temperature, like precipitation and wind, their patterns and intensities. More frequent and intense extreme events are expected, and the possibility is not ruled out of exceeding systemic thresholds for climate variables causing abrupt changes, with potentially much more dangerous consequenc ...
Full Paper - Agronomy 2015
... between the local environment, crop genotype, and management practices (Chenu 2015). In this study, we used the APSIM-Wheat model (Holzworth et al. 2014) to capture these interactions at 60 representative sites across the Australian wheatbelt. Seasonal patterns in the water-stress index output by th ...
... between the local environment, crop genotype, and management practices (Chenu 2015). In this study, we used the APSIM-Wheat model (Holzworth et al. 2014) to capture these interactions at 60 representative sites across the Australian wheatbelt. Seasonal patterns in the water-stress index output by th ...
Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister
... effect might be exaggerated in this model version [Lohmann and Lesins, 2002]. On the other hand, the direct aerosol effect seems underestimated in most models including this one [Kinne et al., 2003]. Furthermore, the results are obtained by instantanous increases of greenhouse gases and aerosols fro ...
... effect might be exaggerated in this model version [Lohmann and Lesins, 2002]. On the other hand, the direct aerosol effect seems underestimated in most models including this one [Kinne et al., 2003]. Furthermore, the results are obtained by instantanous increases of greenhouse gases and aerosols fro ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.