Download 2013

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The World Energy Challenge:
A Very Brief Overview
Engr 10
With your neighbor discuss
1.
2.
3.
4.
What are fossil fuels?
Why are they important?
Are they renewable?
Approx. what % of world
energy use is fossil fuels?
What do you already know?
Approximately what % of world
energy use is fossil fuels?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
20%
50%
65%
85%
98%
World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990 – 2035)
Today
World Electricity Generation by Fuel Type (2010 - 2040)
Demand for Energy Will Continue to Grow
Today
2013
Oil
billion
At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 53 years.
42.1
229.6
329.6
130.3
147.8
808.5
Source of reserves data: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.
What have you heard about the
Keystone pipeline?
Meclee: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Keystone-pipeline-route.png
2013
Coal
At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 113 years.
1.1
14.6
31.8
245
288.3
310.5
Source of reserves data: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.
2013
Natural Gas
At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 55 years.
7.7
11.7
14.2
16.2
56.6
80.3
Source of reserves data: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.
Fossil Fuel Depletion
Good News
 Continually finding new fossil fuel
deposits
 Many known, but untapped deposits
Bad News
 Fossil fuels, esp. oil and natural gas,
will not last forever.
• Even before they run out, as demand
grows and availability shrinks, prices
will skyrocket.
BBC News – 13 Jun 2014
What is the
price of oil per
barrel today?
Alternatives have risks too
August 29, 2011 – Due to Virginia Earthquake

North Anna Unit 1 is currently in Cold Shutdown with the
Residual Heat Removal System providing core cooling.
North Anna Unit 2 is currently in Hot Shutdown and will be
taken to Cold Shutdown with the Residual Heat Removal
System providing core cooling.
June 6, 2011 – Due to March 11 Japan Earthquake

Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant experienced
full meltdowns at three reactors in the wake of an
earthquake and tsunami in March, the country's Nuclear
Emergency Response Headquarters said Monday. (note
almost one year later, still evacuated)
What do you already know?
Which country is the #1 source of oil
imports for the U.S.?
a) Russia
b) Saudi Arabia
c)
Canada
d) Mexico
e) Venezuela
Energy Independence
U.S. oil imports - 2013
(in 1,000s barrels/day)
=7+ million bbl/day
(~50% daily use)
If the U.S. produced its
own energy:
 more stable price
 less dependence on
countries with
unpredictable political
situations
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/companylevel/
CANADA
2,571
SAUDI ARABIA
1,168
MEXICO
831
VENEZUELA
738
IRAQ
428
COLOMBIA
389
NIGERIA
338
KUWAIT
323
ECUADOR
223
ANGOLA
188
BRAZIL
92
CHAD
57
ALGERIA
45
ARGENTINA
9
VIETNAM
9
Fossil Fuel Challenges
Non-renewable
 Depleting resources
 Increasing demand

Is that all?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Gulf_Offshore_Platform.jpg
Air Pollution
Burning fossil fuels causes air pollution from
waste products
 Particulates: small bits of burned fuel,
causing smog
 Ozone: nitrogen oxide & other gases react
to create ozone near the earth’s surface
 Sulfur dioxide: causing acid rain
 Carbon monoxide: displaces O2 in blood,
deprives brain, heart, etc. of O2
Air Pollution Causes Health
Problems

Short Term
• Can irritate the eyes, throat, and lungs
• Bronchitis or pneumonia
• Can aggrevate asthma

Long Term
• Chronic respiratory disease
• Lung cancer
• Heart disease
http://familydoctor.org/online/famdocen/home/common/asthma/triggers/085.html
http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagID=6067
Air Pollution Causes
Environmental Damage

Acid rain
•
•
•
•
•

Kill plants
Kill fish
Prevent fish eggs from hatching
Ruin soil – nothing grows
Damage to
buildings/monuments
Crop damage due to ozone
(O3) smog - $ billions/year
Trees killed by acid rain
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/Waldschaeden_Erzgebirge_3.jpg
Fossil Fuel Extraction Causes
Environmental Damage

Adverse environmental effects due to
drilling, leakages, and spills include
•
•
•
•
•
Surface and ground water pollution
Drilling fluid (called mud) releases
Land subsidence
Land and wildlife disruption
Oil spills
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2387
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oiled_bird_3.jpg
http://www.masstech.org/cleanenergy/important/envother.htm
Clean Air Act –
We’re getting better!

Clean Air Act - resulted in significant
improvements in the U.S.
• Pollution 20 cars today = 1 car from 1960’s
• Emissions reduced: CO by 33%, sulfur dioxide
by 38%, volatile organic compounds by 42%,
particulate matter by 75%, lead by 98%


Overall air pollution reduction
approximately 48%
Hot spots of bad air pollution still exist
http://www.dispatchesfromchina.com/2010/06/pass_the_mask.html
It’s Not All Good News
Many developing countries do not yet have strict
pollution regulations in place, and pollution is
significantly worse than in the U.S.
Beijing
Mumbai
Baku, Azerbaijan
http://www.dispatchesfromchina.com/2010/06/pass_the_mask.html
http://blog.sustainablog.org/do-cities-located-by-the-water-have-a-sustainability-advantage/
Greenhouse Effect


Greenhouse glass allows short
wavelength radiation from the
sun to transmit through. It
reflects most of the long
wavelength radiation emitted
by everything inside the
greenhouse, trapping heat
inside.
Greenhouse gases have this
same effect, causing our world
to be warm.
Global Warming

The theory behind global warming - an
increase in certain gases will cause more
heat to be reflected, increasing the
atmosphere’s temperature.
• Burning of fossil fuels produces significant
amounts of these greenhouse gases

Conclusions of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group
of 1,300 scientific experts from many
countries:
• Greater than 90% chance that human
activities over the past 250 years have
warmed our planet
Can You Name The Main
Greenhouse Gases?
GHGs in Atmosphere

Water Vapor (H2O)
• 36%-72%





Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Fluorocarbons (CFCs)
Ozone (O3)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
http://nlc-echs-groupthree.co.uk/greenhousegasses.aspx
Correlation Between CO2 and Temperature
http://www.climatechoices.org.uk/pages/cchange3.htm
Correlation Between CO2 and Temperature
Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences: Global Warming Facts and
Our Futures, originally provided to that site by Kurt Cuffey, University of California, Berkely.
A climate model
that includes both
natural processes
and human
activities closely
matches actual
measurements of
20th-century
temperatures
http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/historical06.jsp
The same climate
model without
human activity
(natural processes
only) does not
match the strong
warming observed
during the past few
decades.
Why So Much Disagreement?

Heat Island Effect
• Many temperature sensors for collecting long-term data
originally were in the country. As cities have grown,
sensors now are in the city. Temperatures are higher in
the city (example: walking in a parking lot on a hot day).
• It is difficult to model this in climate change predictions.
Result → a lot of uncertainty in long-term temperature
trends. Satellite data are more accurate, but are not
available for that long of a period.
http://www.epa.gov/heatisld/images/UHI_profile-rev-big.gif
Why So Much Disagreement?


Predicted temperature increases tend to be within
(or close to within) the uncertainty of computer
models.
Many causes interact, making it difficult to say
with certainty what causes what. Computer
models must be simplified significantly and cannot
take all interacting parameters into account.
Petition Project


About 32,000
American scientists
(9000+ with PhDs)
signed a petition
saying that no
scientific evidence
exists that manmade GHG
emissions have had
a significant effect
on Earth’s
temperature.
Here are several
figures from a
published paper
that this project
references.
http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php
Petition Project, cont.
http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php
So, Who’s Right??


Many of your professors have strong
opinions on this matter, you should
do the research to form an informed
opinion of your own.
Here are two links, on either side of
the issue, to get started. Both links
refer to scientific data and make
clear, reasoned arguments
• http://climate.nasa.gov/
• http://www.petitionproject.org/gw_artic
le/Review_Article_HTML.php
Your Opinion

a)
b)
Based on what you know today, do
you believe that man-made global
warming is occurring?
Yes
No
Your Opinion
Over the next 30 years, which of the
following do you think will be the most
important solution to the energy crisis?
a) Energy conservation
b) Increased drilling for fossil fuels
c)
Alternative energy sources
Possible Solutions to the Energy
Crisis



More drilling for/excavation of fossil fuels
Invest in technologies to improve
efficiency and reduce emissions from the
burning of fossil fuels
The best energy source - conservation!
• In the long term, we may need to make
significant lifestyle changes as the world
energy demand grows.

Invest in alternative energy sources
Engineers will be needed for all of these
solutions!