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Study on the Population Carrying Capacity in Northeast China Abstract: This paper uses monitoring data to analyze the natural economic condition in Northeast China, and analyze population carrying capacity based on sub-resources study. First of all, this paper analyzes the current land capacity in Northeast China. The comparison farmland data shows that the land resources are relatively abundant, so the land carrying capacity is strong. Second, we use the principal component analysis to study the water carrying capacity. The results show that the first principal component are per capita GDP, urbanization rate and water emissions per capita GDP, and the second principal component is the unit of water resources per capita and arable land. Third, this paper uses ecological footprint method to study the ecological carrying capacity. In 2007, ecological deficit per capita reached 2.115 which indicated that Northeast China is in serious ecological deficit status. This paper establishes a model of three projects to calculate ecological optimum population size. In 2007 the maximum value of ecological optimum population is 105.449 million, slightly lower than the existing population. Keywords: Northeast China; Population Carrying Capacity; Ecological Footprint Author introduction: Sheng Yinan, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China 1. Instruction The long-term development of the industrialization brings about tremendous pressure to natural resources, ecological environment and sustainable development in Northeast China. Non-renewable resources shortage and ecological environment deterioration are major restricted factor for social and economic development in this region. Therefore, the contradictions among population, resources and environment in Northeast China have intensified. As time goes on, these issues would profoundly constrained the improvement of people's living standard and the steady development of social economy. What’s more, the population carrying capacity declines. In China, natural resources are abundant in Northeast region. Oil reserves accounted for 31%, and forests accounted for 17% of total resource reserves in China. But the heavy industry has gradually caused pressure to the environment, which influence people’s living standards and socio-economic sustainable development. For example, the unique black soil in Northeast China has gradually exhausted, threatening productivity of arable land. What’s more, many cities face severe water resources shortage, because the distribution of the water resources is uneven in this region. The government took priority of heavy industry in the strategy of development when the People's Republic of China just founded. Nowadays, some cities are facing resources exhaustion issues. It is significant to study the Population Carrying Capacity in Northeast China. This paper uses economy, energy, resources and environmental monitoring data to analyze the natural economic condition in Northeast China, and analyze population carrying capacity based on sub-resources study. In the last part of the paper, we raise policy suggestions to promote the population carrying capacity. 2. Evaluation of Land Capacity in Northeast China Cultivated population capacity is calculated as , Cultivated population capacity = (Available cultivated land resources / standardization of cultivated land per capita) / (1 - urbanization level) The comparison data of cultivated land of from 1993 to 2008 shows that the land resources are relatively abundant in Northeast China, so the land carrying capacity in this region is strong. However, several factors make the land capacity not optimistic in the future. For example, farmland declines in last decade, and the environmental damage is intensifying.(Table 1) Table 1 Indic ators Cultivated land in Northeast China from1987-2008 Population 4 Amount(10 Grain output 4 (10 t) Area of Food Cultivated Cultivated land Production per Land per capita (10 ha) capita(kg) (ha) 3 Year people) 1987 9547 4689.7 24467.3 491.2224 0.2563 1990 9789 5111.2 24348.7 522.1371 0.2487 1992 10156 5775 16285.4 568.6294 0.1604 1994 10313 5931.5 16275.97 575.1479 0.1578 1996 10454 7033.3 16338.2 672.7855 0.1563 1998 10574 7343.4 16338.2 694.4770 0.1545 2000 10655 5323.5 21526.2 499.6246 0.2020 2002 10715 6666.4 21526.2 622.1559 0.2009 2004 10743 7231 21526.2 615.7711 0.1833 2006 10817 7791.4 21526.2 720.2921 0.1990 2008 10847 8925.3 21449.9 822.8358 0.1977 3. Water Carrying Capacity This paper uses the principal component analysis to study the water carrying capacity. We establish indicator system to evaluate water carrying capacity. Table 2 Water Resource Evaluation Indicators in Northeast China Indicators 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 x1 GDP per capita(RMB) 8227.72 9935.08 12074.90 15934.54 21538.13 25993.94 x2 Urbanization rate(%) 52.70 52.64 53.71 54.82 55.81 56.42 967.02 1087.68 1279.99 1562.89 1013.18 974.80 53.94 44.82 34.81 29.93 48.67 41.88 4771.26 5404.48 6379.67 7810.02 5123.82 4941.75 521.58 487.47 445.61 467.75 493.09 409.24 50.05 39.51 27.41 25.35 16.20 12.01 92.54 96.28 92.48 93.07 89.45 86.16 x3 Water resource per capita (m3) x4 Water utilization rate (%) x5 Water resource per cultivated land (m3) x6 Water consumption per capita (m3) x7 Water emissions per capita GDP (t) x8 COD emissions intensity per capita (kg) The first component and second component of the cumulative contribution rate has reached 86.301%, covering most information of the original indicator system. U1 1.17 Zx1 1.23 Zx2 0.61 Zx3 1Zx4 0.66 Zx5 1.09 Zx6 1.31Zx7 0.65Zx8 U 2 0.48 Zx1 0.33 Zx2 0.95 Zx3 0.71 Zx4 0.93 Zx5 0.13 Zx6 0.24 Zx7 0.75 Zx8 The results show that the first principal component is the unit of the per capita GDP, urbanization rate, water emissions per capita GDP, and the second principal component is the unit of per capita water resources and arable land water resources. (Table3) Table 3 Component Matrix Factor loading 1 2 Zx1 -0.838 -0.444 Zx2 -0.881 -0.309 Zx3 -0.438 0.885 Zx4 0.713 -0.659 Zx5 -0.474 0.865 Zx6 0.779 0.122 Zx7 0.936 0.22 Zx8 0.466 0.694 The formula of water carrying capacity is, WCC W / Wpc ; In 2007, the water resources carrying capacity is 343.0128 million, 3.16 times of the actual population in Northeast China. To improve the economic development levels and promote the water apply efficiency is of great importance to elevate water resource carrying capacity.(Table 4) Table 4 Water Carrying Capacity in Northeast China Indicators Actual population amount Water Carrying Capacity (10000 people) (10000 people) Liao Ning 4298 12611.59 Jilin 2730 8820 Hei Longjiang 3824 14642.75 Total 10852 34301.28 Province 4. Ecological Carrying Capacity 4.1. Ecological Footprint in Northeast China This paper uses the earth average output of FAQ in1993 to calculate the EF. The representative agricultural products in Northeast China are selected. The formula to calculate area of biological resources is, EFi Pi / Yaverage ; ef i EFi / N . The results are showed in table5. Table 5 Ecological Footprint of Northeast China in 2007 Earth average output (kg/ha) Biomass of Total Ecological Northeast ecological footprint per China(t) footprint(ha) capita(ha) Land type Food Product Cereal 2744 70566755 25716747.45 0.23698 Cultivated land Bean 1856 5709526 3076253.23 0.02835 Cultivated land Tuber 12607 1240879 98427.78 0.00091 Cultivated land Oil 1856 763624 411435.34 0.00379 Cultivated land Bast 1500 180508 120338.67 0.00111 Cultivated land Beet 18000 2172600 120700.00 0.00111 Cultivated land Tobacco leaf 1548 121500 78488.37 0.00072 Cultivated land Ginseng 12607 35567 2821.21 0.00003 Cultivated land Vegetable 18000 41689600 2316088.89 0.02134 Cultivated land Pork 457 3795000 8304157.55 0.07652 Cultivated land Egg 400 3818000 9545000.00 0.08796 Cultivated land Total 0.45881 Forest Product Fruit 18000 11388000 632666.67 0.00583 Woodland Walnut 2569.47 47894 18.64 0.00000 Woodland Total 0.05975 Animal product Beef 33 1190000 36060606.06 0.33229 Meadow Mutton 33 218000 6606060.61 0.06087 Meadow Other meat. 74 2244000 30324324.32 0.27944 Meadow Milk 502 6680000 13306772.91 0.12262 Meadow Wool 15 54707 3647133.33 0.03361 Meadow Total 0.82883 Total output of aquatic 29 1086000 37448275.86 0.34508 Water products In 2007, ecological deficit per capita reached 2.115 gha which indicates that Northeast China is in serious ecological deficit status. Among them, fossil fuel land contributes to the highest ecological deficit, following by grassland ecological deficit. 4.2. Energy Footprint in Northeast China The consumption energy is selected according to the economic features of Northeast China.(Table 6): And the formula is, ef i Pi ki ef average N ef i is the energy footprint per capita . Pi is the amount of energy in the region. k i is the energy conversion factor in China. ef average is the global average energy footprint. N is the amount of population. Table 6 Energy footprint of Northeast China in 2007 Global average energy footprint Conversion Consumption Footprint per factor(GJ/t) (t) capita(ha) Land type (GJ/ha·a) Coal 55 20.934 329240000 1.15476 Fossil Fuel Land Coak 55 28.47 29341600 0.13996 Fossil Fuel Land petrol 93 43.124 10220500 0.04367 Fossil Fuel Land diesel oil 93 42.705 15953200 0.0675 Fossil Fuel Land Fuel oil 71 50.2 3113300 0.02028 Fossil Fuel Land Total Electricity 1.42618 1000 11.840 3 (GJ/10 kw·h) 2465.09 3 (10 kw·h) 0.00027 Architectural land 4.3. Water Footprint in Northeast China Assume that an area could collect water and supply the water for living and production in Northeast China. The formula is, EFW A C / S EFW is the fresh water footprint. A is the proportion of basin area. C is the consumption of fresh water resource. S is the water supply of the main basin area in Northeast China. According to the statistical data, the average level of water area reaches 3512910 ha ,the water supply reaches 54348 *107 m3 and the water consumption is 29990*107 m3 in 2007. So the fresh water footprint is 1928473.74 ha and the water footprint per capita is 0.0179 ha . 4.4. Ecological Carrying Capacity The ecological footprint per capita in Northeast China is 3.36192 gha (Table 7). The available ecological carrying capacity is 1.2469 gha and the ecological deficit reaches 2.115 gha , decuct 12% land space because of the biodiversity. Table 7 The Balance Table of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Carrying Capacity of Northeast China in 2007 Ecological supply Total area Ecological carrying capacity Balance Total area Equivalence Land type per capita (gha) area factor Balance Equivalence Land type (gha) Cultivated per capita (gha) area factor (gha) Cultivated 0.4588 2.8 1.28464 land 0.1977 1.66 0.9191 land Woodland 0.0058 1.1 0.00638 Woodland 0.3194 0.91 0.3197 Meadow 0.8288 0.5 0.4144 Meadow 0.3312 0.19 0.0031 Water 0.3451 0.2 0.06902 Water 0.0324 1 0.0065 0.0179 1 0.0179 Freshwater 0 footprint Carbon Fossil Fuel 1.4262 1.1 1.56882 dioxide 0 0 0 0.03625 0 0 absorbent Architectural Architectural 0.00027 2.8 0.00076 land land Ecological Carrying 1.417 Capacity Ecological 3.36192 Ava 1.2469 Footprint Ecological -2.115 Deficit Among them, fossil fuel land contributes to the highest ecological deficit, account for 71% of the total deficit. The essential reason is the characteristic of economic structure in Northeast China. The resource based industry consumes large quantity of fossil fuel. Another reason is the geographical position of this region. Northeast China locates in high latitudes. Coal and other kind of fossil fuel is widely used for keep warm to pass through the winter by the households. Fossil fuel ecological deficit follows by cultivated land and grassland ecological deficit, which is 1.28464 gha and 0.4144 gha .Only the woodland and architectural represents ecological supply is surplus, which is 0.3134 gha and 0.1677 gha , because the forest resource is abundant in Northeast China and the local government has made great effort to protect the forests. 5. The Optimum Population in Northeast China The optimum population is calculated by the ratio of footprint and ecological carrying capacity. We assume three possible projects according to different consumption level. In project one, we assume that the consumption level is still. The formula is P EC / ef . In project two, we assume that the consumption level in the Northeast China is the same as the average level nationwide. The ecological footprint per capita of China in 2006 as 1.978 gha and the ecological carrying capacity is 0.755 gha . The formula is P EC / 1.978 . In project three, we assume the region is ecological deficit. The amount of carrying capacity can be improved by the allocation of resources. The formula is P EC / ef (1.978 / 0.755) . P represents the amount of optimum population. EC is the ecological capacity in this region. ef is the ecological footprint per capita. The optimum population is 4025*104 people in project one, 6841*104 people in project two, and 10544.9*104 people in project three. In project three, we assume the Northeast as a regional unit in China. The resource can be allocated nationwide. So the ecological optimum population in project three is much larger than the results of project one and project two. In project one, the optimum population is 4025*104 people, which is smaller than the actual population amount, 10852*104 people. So under the strict situation, the population amount is overload compare to the ecological carrying capacity. In project two, when the consumption level in the Northeast China is the same as the average level nationwide, the ecological carrying capacity is 6841*104 people, which is also overload. With the development of local economic level and people 's living standards , to further improve the level of consumption, the population pressure would gradually severe. Project three is the maximum situation. The optimum population is 10544.9*104 people, which is slightly lower than the actual population amount. In this situation, the population and resources reach a reasonable allocation by allocating population and resources nationwide. In a word, population scale in Northeast China has basically reached its ultimit ecological carrying capacity. This paper builds a model of three projects to calculate ecological optimum population size. Comparing the results, we draw a conclusion that in 2007 the maximum value of ecological optimum population is 105.449 million, slightly lower than the existing population. 6. Conclusion This paper assumes that the level of carrying capacity is different significantly. The land and water population carrying capacity is strong, but the ecological carrying capacity is small. The land resources are relatively abundant in Northeast China, so the land carrying capacity in this region is strong. However, the declining of arable land, population gowth and rising environmental hazards would restrict the cultivated carrying capacity. The social economic development indicators impact the water carrying capacity significantly. To sum up, the population size is not overload when we consider carrying capacity of a single resource, such as cultivated land and water. The Ecological deficit is 2.115 gha in Northeast China. This paper establishes three projects to calculate ecological optimum population size in Northeast China. Comparing the results, we draw a conclusion that the optimum population is smaller than the actual population size. In a word, Northeast China’s population scale has basically reached its limited ecological carrying capacity. However, some policy recommendations could be accepted to improve the ecological carrying capacity in this region. Firstly, it is important to make use of the existing resource rationally, and enhance the efficiency of resource utilization. Second, the government should establish recycling economy, and rational use energy. Third, we should draw lessons from international successful experiences, make great effort to promote the healthy circulation of economy, adjust industrial structure, and speed technological progress. These policies would contribute to enhance the status of the Northeast region's population carrying capacity at a certain extent, improve people’s living standards, and ultimately realize the coordinated development of population, resources and environment.