Download Study on the Population Carrying Capacity in Northeast China

Study on the Population Carrying Capacity in Northeast China
Abstract: This paper uses monitoring data to analyze the natural economic
condition in Northeast China, and analyze population carrying capacity based on
sub-resources study. First of all, this paper analyzes the current land capacity in
Northeast China. The comparison farmland data shows that the land resources are
relatively abundant, so the land carrying capacity is strong. Second, we use the
principal component analysis to study the water carrying capacity. The results show
that the first principal component are per capita GDP, urbanization rate and water
emissions per capita GDP, and the second principal component is the unit of water
resources per capita and arable land. Third, this paper uses ecological footprint
method to study the ecological carrying capacity. In 2007, ecological deficit per capita
reached 2.115 which indicated that Northeast China is in serious ecological deficit
status. This paper establishes a model of three projects to calculate ecological
optimum population size. In 2007 the maximum value of ecological optimum
population is 105.449 million, slightly lower than the existing population.
Keywords: Northeast China; Population Carrying Capacity; Ecological Footprint
Author introduction: Sheng Yinan, Capital University of Economics and
Business, Beijing, China
1.
Instruction
The long-term development of the industrialization brings about tremendous
pressure to natural resources, ecological environment and sustainable development in
Northeast China. Non-renewable resources shortage and ecological environment
deterioration are major restricted factor for social and economic development in this
region. Therefore, the contradictions among population, resources and environment in
Northeast China have intensified. As time goes on, these issues would profoundly
constrained the improvement of people's living standard and the steady development
of social economy. What’s more, the population carrying capacity declines.
In China, natural resources are abundant in Northeast region. Oil reserves
accounted for 31%, and forests accounted for 17% of total resource reserves in China.
But the heavy industry has gradually caused pressure to the environment, which
influence people’s living standards and socio-economic sustainable development. For
example, the unique black soil in Northeast China has gradually exhausted,
threatening productivity of arable land. What’s more, many cities face severe water
resources shortage, because the distribution of the water resources is uneven in this
region. The government took priority of heavy industry in the strategy of development
when the People's Republic of China just founded. Nowadays, some cities are facing
resources exhaustion issues. It is significant to study the Population Carrying Capacity
in Northeast China.
This paper uses economy, energy, resources and environmental monitoring data
to analyze the natural economic condition in Northeast China, and analyze population
carrying capacity based on sub-resources study. In the last part of the paper, we raise
policy suggestions to promote the population carrying capacity.
2.
Evaluation of Land Capacity in Northeast China
Cultivated population capacity is calculated as ,
Cultivated population capacity = (Available cultivated land resources /
standardization of cultivated land per capita) / (1 - urbanization level)
The comparison data of cultivated land of from 1993 to 2008 shows that the land
resources are relatively abundant in Northeast China, so the land carrying capacity in
this region is strong. However, several factors make the land capacity not optimistic in
the future. For example, farmland declines in last decade, and the environmental
damage is intensifying.(Table 1)
Table 1
Indic
ators
Cultivated land in Northeast China from1987-2008
Population
4
Amount(10
Grain output
4
（10 t）
Area of
Food
Cultivated
Cultivated land
Production per
Land per capita
（10 ha）
capita（kg）
（ha）
3
Year
people)
1987
9547
4689.7
24467.3
491.2224
0.2563
1990
9789
5111.2
24348.7
522.1371
0.2487
1992
10156
5775
16285.4
568.6294
0.1604
1994
10313
5931.5
16275.97
575.1479
0.1578
1996
10454
7033.3
16338.2
672.7855
0.1563
1998
10574
7343.4
16338.2
694.4770
0.1545
2000
10655
5323.5
21526.2
499.6246
0.2020
2002
10715
6666.4
21526.2
622.1559
0.2009
2004
10743
7231
21526.2
615.7711
0.1833
2006
10817
7791.4
21526.2
720.2921
0.1990
2008
10847
8925.3
21449.9
822.8358
0.1977
3.
Water Carrying Capacity
This paper uses the principal component analysis to study the water carrying
capacity. We establish indicator system to evaluate water carrying capacity.
Table 2
Water Resource Evaluation Indicators in Northeast China
Indicators
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2008
x1 GDP per capita(RMB)
8227.72
9935.08
12074.90
15934.54
21538.13
25993.94
x2 Urbanization rate(%)
52.70
52.64
53.71
54.82
55.81
56.42
967.02
1087.68
1279.99
1562.89
1013.18
974.80
53.94
44.82
34.81
29.93
48.67
41.88
4771.26
5404.48
6379.67
7810.02
5123.82
4941.75
521.58
487.47
445.61
467.75
493.09
409.24
50.05
39.51
27.41
25.35
16.20
12.01
92.54
96.28
92.48
93.07
89.45
86.16
x3 Water resource per capita
(m3)
x4 Water utilization rate (%)
x5
Water
resource
per
cultivated land (m3)
x6 Water consumption per
capita (m3)
x7 Water emissions per capita
GDP (t)
x8 COD emissions intensity
per capita (kg)
The first component and second component of the cumulative contribution rate
has reached 86.301%, covering most information of the original indicator system.
U1  1.17  Zx1  1.23  Zx2  0.61  Zx3  1Zx4  0.66  Zx5  1.09  Zx6
 1.31Zx7  0.65Zx8
U 2  0.48  Zx1  0.33  Zx2  0.95  Zx3  0.71 Zx4  0.93  Zx5  0.13  Zx6
 0.24  Zx7  0.75  Zx8
The results show that the first principal component is the unit of the per capita
GDP, urbanization rate, water emissions per capita GDP, and the second principal
component is the unit of per capita water resources and arable land water resources.
(Table3)
Table 3
Component Matrix
Factor loading
1
2
Zx1
-0.838
-0.444
Zx2
-0.881
-0.309
Zx3
-0.438
0.885
Zx4
0.713
-0.659
Zx5
-0.474
0.865
Zx6
0.779
0.122
Zx7
0.936
0.22
Zx8
0.466
0.694
The formula of water carrying capacity is,
WCC  W / Wpc ；
In 2007, the water resources carrying capacity is 343.0128 million, 3.16 times of
the actual population in Northeast China. To improve the economic development
levels and promote the water apply efficiency is of great importance to elevate water
resource carrying capacity.(Table 4)
Table 4
Water Carrying Capacity in Northeast China
Indicators
Actual population amount
Water Carrying Capacity
(10000 people)
(10000 people)
Liao Ning
4298
12611.59
Jilin
2730
8820
Hei Longjiang
3824
14642.75
Total
10852
34301.28
Province
4. Ecological Carrying Capacity
4.1. Ecological Footprint in Northeast China
This paper uses the earth average output of FAQ in1993 to calculate the EF. The
representative agricultural products in Northeast China are selected.
The formula to calculate area of biological resources is,
EFi  Pi / Yaverage ；
ef i  EFi / N .
The results are showed in table5.
Table 5
Ecological Footprint of Northeast China in 2007
Earth
average
output
（kg/ha）
Biomass of
Total
Ecological
Northeast
ecological
footprint per
China（t）
footprint（ha） capita（ha）
Land type
Food Product
Cereal
2744
70566755
25716747.45
0.23698
Cultivated land
Bean
1856
5709526
3076253.23
0.02835
Cultivated land
Tuber
12607
1240879
98427.78
0.00091
Cultivated land
Oil
1856
763624
411435.34
0.00379
Cultivated land
Bast
1500
180508
120338.67
0.00111
Cultivated land
Beet
18000
2172600
120700.00
0.00111
Cultivated land
Tobacco leaf
1548
121500
78488.37
0.00072
Cultivated land
Ginseng
12607
35567
2821.21
0.00003
Cultivated land
Vegetable
18000
41689600
2316088.89
0.02134
Cultivated land
Pork
457
3795000
8304157.55
0.07652
Cultivated land
Egg
400
3818000
9545000.00
0.08796
Cultivated land
Total
0.45881
Forest Product
Fruit
18000
11388000
632666.67
0.00583
Woodland
Walnut
2569.47
47894
18.64
0.00000
Woodland
Total
0.05975
Animal
product
Beef
33
1190000
36060606.06
0.33229
Meadow
Mutton
33
218000
6606060.61
0.06087
Meadow
Other meat.
74
2244000
30324324.32
0.27944
Meadow
Milk
502
6680000
13306772.91
0.12262
Meadow
Wool
15
54707
3647133.33
0.03361
Meadow
Total
0.82883
Total output of
aquatic
29
1086000
37448275.86
0.34508
Water
products
In 2007, ecological deficit per capita reached 2.115 gha which indicates that
Northeast China is in serious ecological deficit status. Among them, fossil fuel land
contributes to the highest ecological deficit, following by grassland ecological deficit.
4.2. Energy Footprint in Northeast China
The consumption energy is selected according to the economic features of
Northeast China.（Table 6）:
And the formula is,
ef i 
Pi  ki
ef average  N
ef i is the energy footprint per capita . Pi is the amount of energy in the region. k i
is the energy conversion factor in China. ef average is the global average energy
footprint. N is the amount of population.
Table 6
Energy footprint of Northeast China in 2007
Global
average
energy
footprint
Conversion
Consumption
Footprint per
factor（GJ/t）
（t）
capita（ha）
Land type
（GJ/ha·a）
Coal
55
20.934
329240000
1.15476
Fossil Fuel Land
Coak
55
28.47
29341600
0.13996
Fossil Fuel Land
petrol
93
43.124
10220500
0.04367
Fossil Fuel Land
diesel oil
93
42.705
15953200
0.0675
Fossil Fuel Land
Fuel oil
71
50.2
3113300
0.02028
Fossil Fuel Land
Total
Electricity
1.42618
1000
11.840
3
（GJ/10 kw·h）
2465.09
3
（10 kw·h）
0.00027
Architectural
land
4.3. Water Footprint in Northeast China
Assume that an area could collect water and supply the water for living and
production in Northeast China. The formula is,
EFW  A  C / S
EFW is the fresh water footprint. A is the proportion of basin area. C is the
consumption of fresh water resource. S is the water supply of the main basin area in
Northeast China.
According to the statistical data, the average level of water area reaches 3512910
ha ，the water supply reaches 54348 *107 m3 and the water consumption is 29990*107
m3 in 2007. So the fresh water footprint is 1928473.74 ha and the water footprint per
capita is 0.0179 ha .
4.4. Ecological Carrying Capacity
The ecological footprint per capita in Northeast China is 3.36192 gha (Table 7).
The available ecological carrying capacity is 1.2469 gha and the ecological deficit
reaches 2.115 gha , decuct 12% land space because of the biodiversity.
Table 7 The Balance Table of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Carrying
Capacity of Northeast China in 2007
Ecological supply
Total area
Ecological carrying capacity
Balance
Total area
Equivalence
Land type
per capita
（gha）
area
factor
Balance
Equivalence
Land type
（gha）
Cultivated
per capita
（gha）
area
factor
（gha）
Cultivated
0.4588
2.8
1.28464
land
0.1977
1.66
0.9191
land
Woodland
0.0058
1.1
0.00638
Woodland
0.3194
0.91
0.3197
Meadow
0.8288
0.5
0.4144
Meadow
0.3312
0.19
0.0031
Water
0.3451
0.2
0.06902
Water
0.0324
1
0.0065
0.0179
1
0.0179
Freshwater
0
footprint
Carbon
Fossil Fuel
1.4262
1.1
1.56882
dioxide
0
0
0
0.03625
0
0
absorbent
Architectural
Architectural
0.00027
2.8
0.00076
land
land
Ecological
Carrying
1.417
Capacity
Ecological
3.36192
Ava
1.2469
Footprint
Ecological
-2.115
Deficit
Among them, fossil fuel land contributes to the highest ecological deficit, account
for 71% of the total deficit. The essential reason is the characteristic of economic
structure in Northeast China. The resource based industry consumes large quantity of
fossil fuel. Another reason is the geographical position of this region. Northeast China
locates in high latitudes. Coal and other kind of fossil fuel is widely used for keep
warm to pass through the winter by the households. Fossil fuel ecological deficit
follows by cultivated land and grassland ecological deficit, which is 1.28464 gha and
0.4144 gha .Only the woodland and architectural represents ecological supply is
surplus, which is 0.3134 gha and 0.1677 gha , because the forest resource is
abundant in Northeast China and the local government has made great effort to
protect the forests.
5.
The Optimum Population in Northeast China
The optimum population is calculated by the ratio of footprint and ecological
carrying capacity. We assume three possible projects according to different
consumption level.
In project one, we assume that the consumption level is still. The formula is
P  EC / ef .
In project two, we assume that the consumption level in the Northeast China is
the same as the average level nationwide. The ecological footprint per capita of
China in 2006 as 1.978 gha and the ecological carrying capacity is 0.755 gha . The
formula is P  EC / 1.978 .
In project three, we assume the region is ecological deficit. The amount of
carrying capacity can be improved by the allocation of resources. The formula is
P  EC / ef  (1.978 / 0.755) .
P represents the amount of optimum population. EC is the ecological capacity in
this region. ef is the ecological footprint per capita.
The optimum population is 4025*104 people in project one, 6841*104 people
in project two, and 10544.9*104 people in project three. In project three, we assume
the Northeast as a regional unit in China. The resource can be allocated nationwide.
So the ecological optimum population in project three is much larger than the results
of project one and project two.
In project one, the optimum population is 4025*104 people, which is smaller than
the actual population amount, 10852*104 people. So under the strict situation, the
population amount is overload compare to the ecological carrying capacity.
In project two, when the consumption level in the Northeast China is the same as
the average level nationwide, the ecological carrying capacity is 6841*104 people,
which is also overload. With the development of local economic level and people 's
living standards , to further improve the level of consumption, the population pressure
would gradually severe.
Project three is the maximum situation. The optimum population is 10544.9*104
people, which is slightly lower than the actual population amount. In this situation, the
population and resources reach a reasonable allocation by allocating population and
resources nationwide.
In a word, population scale in Northeast China has basically reached its ultimit
ecological carrying capacity. This paper builds a model of three projects to calculate
ecological optimum population size. Comparing the results, we draw a conclusion that
in 2007 the maximum value of ecological optimum population is 105.449 million,
slightly lower than the existing population.
6.
Conclusion
This paper assumes that the level of carrying capacity is different significantly.
The land and water population carrying capacity is strong, but the ecological
carrying capacity is small.
The land resources are relatively abundant in Northeast China, so the land
carrying capacity in this region is strong. However, the declining of arable land,
population gowth and rising environmental hazards would restrict the cultivated
carrying capacity. The social economic development indicators impact the water
carrying capacity significantly. To sum up, the population size is not overload when
we consider carrying capacity of a single resource, such as cultivated land and water.
The Ecological deficit is 2.115 gha in Northeast China. This paper establishes
three projects to calculate ecological optimum population size in Northeast China.
Comparing the results, we draw a conclusion that the optimum population is smaller
than the actual population size. In a word, Northeast China’s population scale has
basically reached its limited ecological carrying capacity.
However, some policy recommendations could be accepted to improve the
ecological carrying capacity in this region. Firstly, it is important to make use of the
existing resource rationally, and enhance the efficiency of resource utilization. Second,
the government should establish recycling economy, and rational use energy. Third,
we should draw lessons from international successful experiences, make great effort
to promote the healthy circulation of economy, adjust industrial structure, and speed
technological progress. These policies would contribute to enhance the status of the
Northeast region's population carrying capacity at a certain extent, improve people’s
living standards, and ultimately realize the coordinated development of population,
resources and environment.