Download Resource ID#: 31369

Probability
Resource ID#: 31369
Primary Type: Lesson Plan
This document was generated on CPALMS - www.cpalms.org
This lesson is designed to develop students' understanding of probability in real life situations.
Students will also be introduced to running experiments, experimental probability, and
theoretical probability. This lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to
probability as well as suggested ways to integrate them into the lesson. Finally, the lesson
provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with the current one.
Subject(s): Mathematics
Grade Level(s): 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Intended Audience: Educators
Suggested Technology: Computer for Presenter, Computers for Students, Internet Connection,
LCD Projector, Adobe Acrobat Reader, Java Plugin
Instructional Time: 1 Hour(s)
Keywords: Probability, Fair, Unfair, Experimental Probability, Theoretical Probability
Instructional Component Type(s): Lesson Plan, Virtual Manipulative, Teaching
Idea, Student Center Activity
Instructional Design Framework(s): Direct Instruction, Cooperative Learning
Resource Collection: NSDL
Related Standards
Name
MAFS.7.SP.3.5:
MAFS.7.SP.3.7:
Description
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number
between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event
occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A
probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability
around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely,
and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of
events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed
frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible
sources of the discrepancy.
a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal
probability to all outcomes, and use the model to
determine probabilities of events. For example, if a
student is selected at random from a class, find the
probability that Jane will be selected and the probability
that a girl will be selected.
b. Develop a probability model (which may not be
uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated
from a chance process. For example, find the
approximate probability that a spinning penny will land
heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end
down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to
be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
Particular alignment to:
MAFS.7.SP.3.7a:
MAFS.7.SP.3.7b:
a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal
probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine
probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at
random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be
selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by
observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.
MAFS.912.S-MD.1.2:
MAFS.912.S-MD.1.3:
MAFS.912.S-MD.1.4:
MAFS.912.S-MD.2.5:
MAFS.912.S-MD.2.6:
For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning
penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear
to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as
the mean of the probability distribution. ★
Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined
for a sample space in which theoretical probabilities can be
calculated; find the expected value. For example, find the
theoretical probability distribution for the number of correct
answers obtained by guessing on all five questions of a
multiple-choice test where each question has four choices, and
find the expected grade under various grading schemes. ★
Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined
for a sample space in which probabilities are assigned
empirically; find the expected value. For example, find a
current data distribution on the number of TV sets per
household in the United States, and calculate the expected
number of sets per household. How many TV sets would you
expect to find in 100 randomly selected households? ★
Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning
probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. ★
a. Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. For
example, find the expected winnings from a state lottery
ticket or a game at a fast-food restaurant.
b. Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected
values. For example, compare a high-deductible versus
a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using
various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or a
major accident.
Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots,
using a random number generator). ★
Attached Resources
Virtual Manipulative
Name
Boxing Up (Probability
Simulation):
Description
In this lesson, students will use the "Box Model" (either an
online applet or a real life box with slips of paper) to explore the
relationship between theoretical and experimental probabilities.
(from NCTM Illuminations)
Lesson Plan
Name
Marble Mania:
Description
In this lesson, "by flipping coins and pulling marbles out of a
bag, students begin to develop a basic understanding of
probabilities, how they are determined, and how the outcome of
an experiment can be affected by the number of times it is
conducted." (from Science NetLinks)