Download Public Opinion

Public Opinion Assignment
A. Public Opinion Key Terms
B. What If…. Students were required to pass a National Civics Exam?
Read/Assess/React
C. What is Public Opinion? Define/Explanation/Elaborate
D. How is Public Opinion formed????
E. Political Preferences and Voting Behavior
F. Measuring Public Opinion (Examining Polling)
G. Technology and Opinion Polls (Methods, Advantages/Disadvantages,
etc.)
H. Public Opinion and the Political Process
I. Read Making a Difference: Being a Critical Consumer of Opinion
Polls (Assess/React)
Public Opinion Assignment
A. Public Opinion Key Terms
B. What If…. Students were required to pass a National Civics Exam?
Read/Assess/React
C. What is Public Opinion? Define/Explanation/Elaborate
D. How is Public Opinion formed????
E. Political Preferences and Voting Behavior
F. Measuring Public Opinion (Examining Polling)
G. Technology and Opinion Polls (Methods, Advantages/Disadvantages,
etc.)
H. Public Opinion and the Political Process
I. Read Making a Difference: Being a Critical Consumer of Opinion
Polls (Assess/React)
Opinion Polls
(Website Links)
Polling Report - Collection of U.S. political polls from around the country. Updated when new
polls are released. Data are from national surveys of the American public. Issues polls and
articles by leading pollsters are available to subscribers.
Real Clear Politics - Collection of up-to-date political news from around the web. Large
selection of polls for political races divided into Issues races or position races.
Political Polls - The Washington Post's directory for historical national political polls. The
Data Directory is a guide to public opinion data published on the Internet by nonpartisan
organizations.
Gallup Poll - Political polls & a directory for hundreds of other polls. The organization has
studied human nature & behavior for over 70 years & employs many of the world's leading
scientists in management, economics, psychology & sociology.
Buzz Dash - Tool for gauging popular opinion on a wide range of topics - from sports, movies
and politics to relationships and philosophy. A real-time forum where people can solicit,
measure & share opinions on nearly any issue. View real-time popular opinion on a range of
timely issues. Express opinions by voting or commenting on individual issues. Post individual
buzzbites to personal web pages, blogs or emails.
Zogby - Offers their polling service as well as free recent polls with analysis. Zogby International has been
tracking public opinion since 1984 in North America, Latin America, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.
Rasmussen Reports - Updated Presidential Job Approval Ratings daily & polls every
Senate & Governor's race constantly. Was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the
Presidential election & the only one to project both Bush & Kerry's vote total within half a
percentage point of the actual outcome.
Political Polls - A information directory for political polls. Divided into: Polling Organizations,
Recent Polls, Polling News, Polling Methodology, Truth About Bogus Polls, Push Polls &
Polling Analysis.
USA Election Polls - A collection of thousands of polls, analysis, and up-to-date candidate
information.
The Cook Political Report - Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent,
non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of
Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Includes: A complete listing of every potential candidate for the U.S. House, Senate and
Governor.
National Opinion Surveys
American National Election Studies
Conducted biennially since 1952, the survey gauges public sentiment on the political process, the
role of government, and social and economic issues. This site permits download of the ANES
datasets, most of which are also available through ICPSR and CISER.
American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy
Conducted on behalf of the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, it measures the concerns of
Americans regarding economic, political, and military engagement in foreign affairs. Conducted
every four years from 1974 to 2002 and now biennially, fulltext reports results are accessible on
the site. Recent years incorporate parallel surveys in EU countries, Mexico, and Korea. The 2006
survey included representative polls of China and India. Most years can be obtained as numeric
files from ICPSR and CISER.
Gallup Organization
Recent political and economic polling results, as well as "special reports" that examine attitudes
toward social issues and consumer behavior. Some multinational studies are included. (Olin
Library owns the Gallup Poll Monthly in electronic and hardcopy.) Codebooks and datasets for
many Gallup polls are available from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research site (see
separate entry below). GallupBrain is a question bank that allows searching for survey questions
in over 70 years of Gallup polls. Cornell doesn't subscribe so you can't view response
frequencies, but GallupBrain is a useful tool if you're looking for question wording.
General Social Survey
The GSS has been conducted since 1972 by the National Opinion Research Center. It measures
attitudes toward social and public policy issues, economic status, political events, work, and
family life. Some questions are asked each year, and topical modules are administered on a
rotating basis that focus on current topics such as gender equity, religious beliefs, and perception
of work. The 1972-2006 file was released in May 2007.
The Survey Documentation and Analysis (SDA) software at UC Berkeley allows you to construct
tables from the 1972-2006 cumulative file based on variables you select, perform custom
extracts, and create and recode variables. The NORC site has a similar data analysis tool using
the NESSTAR software. You can use recent GSS years from the Association of Religion Data
Archives, view responses to individual questions crosstabulated by respondent categories, and
view frequencies using spiffy graphics. (CISER has the GSS data files on its server.)
iPOLL, Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
Cornell users only
Although the database is compiled by the Roper Center, it contains questions from polls
conducted by other U.S. organizations such as Harris, Gallup, National Opinion Research Center,
and major news establishments, some back to 1936. The questions often contain response
frequencies, sometimes broken down by respondents' demographics.
iPOLL is accessible to Cornell users from the Roper Center iPOLL site; use this link for off-
campus access. See CISER's Roper Center membership page for more information on iPOLL
and other Roper services.
Maxwell Poll, Syracuse University
A national sample poll of households in the continental United States and conducted annual since
2004 by the Campbell Public Affairs Institute. Its focus is on individual civic engagement and
perceptions of economic inequality . Download the microdata in Excel, SAS, and SPSS formats.
National Opinion Research Center
NORC conducts survey research on public policy issues for a variety of agencies and
corporations. See the "Projects" section for copies of recent surveys and their reports. NORC
also conducts the General Social Survey (see above).
Odum Institute for Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina
The Public Opinion Poll Question Database contains approximately 200,000 questions from
surveys conducted since 1958, searchable by keyword or phrase. Questions are derived from the
Louis Harris polls and state-level polling organizations from 22 states, with strong coverage of
Southern states.
Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
An "independent opinion research group that studies attitudes toward press, politics and public
policy issues." Contains summaries of results, comparisons of how attitudes change over time,
copies of questionnaires, and descriptions of survey methodologies. Some summaries have
response frequency tables with demographic breakdowns. From the header bar, select Survey
Reports for summaries and related questionnaires going back to 1997. Select Datasets to
download datasets in zip format; each zip archive consists of a datafile, layout, and questionnaire.
A terrific site. See also the links to other Pew Research sites with survey data, including the
Global Attitudes Project, Internet and American Life Project, and the Pew Hispanic Center.
Poll Track
Cornell users only
Poll Track brings together recent and historical polls conducted on national issues by many
organizations, with emphasis on politics and campaigns. The search feature pinpoints polls and
questions on specific topics. Produced by the National Journal.
Polling Report
Publishes results of questions from surveys conducted by major polling organizations. You can
search for specific topics or browse under broad categories (Politics and Policy,
Business/Economy, American Scene, National Barometer). Information on the original survey,
sample size, and frequencies accompanies each question. Find out popular opinions on elected
officials at the national and state levels, consumer attitudes on economic conditions, and views
about popular culture. (Yes, most people polled believe that Elvis is dead.)
Polling the Nations
Cornell users only
This source compiles questions from over 14,000 polls, including those conducted by national,
regional, and local survey organizations, both for profit and not-for-profit. Coverage is from 1986
forward and includes non-US surveys such as those in the Eurobarometer series. Search many
fields by keywords or phrases (poll title, question text, subject headings, survey participants), and
all the questions from one survey can be retrieved by using advanced search techniques.
Response frequencies are included but with no demographic breakdowns.
Public Agenda
A nonpartisan opinion research organization that reports surveys conducted by national firms on
public policy issues. Especially strong coverage of quality of life and social issues; for example,
race relations, health care, privacy, drug abuse, crime, the environment, and immigration. Great
graphs and tables, and cautionary notes about question wordings, the timing of the featured
polls, and margins of error. A swell site.
Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
Located at the University of Connecticut, the Roper Center collects, disseminates, and distributes
information about public opinion surveys and maintains an archive of over 10,000 data sets of
American and foreign surveys. It also has a significant number of historical polls from the World
War II period. CISER maintains a Roper Center membership on behalf of the Cornell University
community. Benefits include the ability to download datasets directly through the Roper Express
service and use of the iPOLL database; see this page for more information.
Science and Engineering Indicators, National Science Foundation
Includes information on public attitudes toward scientific research and its impact. Questions are
excerpted from such many surveys, including the General Social Survey and NSF Survey of
Public Attitudes. The Science and Engineering Indicators reports in their entirety can be viewed in
html and PDF formats. Reports online include 1993, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006. Chapter
7 generally contains information specific to public attitudes and understanding of science,
although there is also a searchable index for most years.
Washington Post Poll Vault
The results of selected Post polls since 1997. Most represent nationwide samples on national
issues, others are on topics of regional interest. A brief article summarizes each poll. For most,
question responses are broken down by demographics and have links to previous polls with
similar questions. Using the "Polls" link in the left sidebar requires a registration process, but the
"Find a Question" option does not.
Sites with a State or Regional Emphasis
Northeast
Center for Politics and Public Affairs, Franklin & Marshall College
Conducts the Keystone Poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania and focuses on opinions toward
officeseekers and public-policy issues. (The Keystone Poll was previously affiliated with
Millersville University.)
Center for Survey Research, State University of New York, Stony Brook
The Center conducts surveys based on national, New York State, and Long Island area samples.
Most surveys are described briefly, but summaries of a few recent ones (notably, the recent
Health Pulse of America surveys) include detailed results at the question level. Some Health
Pulse of America datasets are available from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.
The Eagleton Poll, Scholarly Communication Center, Rutgers University
Although emphasis is on voting behavior, some surveys measure attitudes toward economic,
social, and political priorities. Geographic focus on New Jersey. Surveys from 1971+ are
included.
Empire State Poll, Survey Research Institute, Cornell University
Conducted annually since 2003, the focus of ESP is issues of interest to New York State
residents. This site contains survey summaries, questionnaires, and methodology reports.
Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Especially good source of surveys on issues specific to New York State and New York City.
Polling Institute, Quinnipiac University
Results of polls focusing on issues in New York State, New York City, New Jersey, Connecticut,
and Pennsylvania, with emphasis on political opinion surveys.
PublicMind Poll, Fairleigh Dickinson University
Conducted since 2001, PublicMind tends to focus on state-specific issues in New Jersey and
Delaware. Between 15 and 30 targeted polls are produced each year. Some summaries in
English and Spanish. Survey data can't be downloaded, but most poll results are represented by
detailed response tables and related graphics on the site.
Siena Research Institute, Siena College
SRI conducts polls on topics of public policy interest, including education, health care, and
consumer confidence. Its focus is on New York State, and specifically the Capital District
region. Textual summaries are often followed by detailed tables summarizing results by
respondent demographics. Be aware that titles listed on the Recent Surveys and Polls and
Archives pages don't reflect all of the surveys undertaken by the Institute. See also pages for the
(archived) Siena New York Poll and the SRI Political Poll.
Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions, Brown
University
Sponsors the Brown University Survey that focuses on Rhode Island politics, attitudes toward
economic development, and other public policy issues.
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Home of the Granite State Poll of New Hampshire residents. Poll results are represented by
detailed press releases or reports in PDF format.
Zogby International
In addition to polls on national issues, Zogby contains information on polls of particular interest to
New Yorkers. You can search for terms or names with the search engine, although many poll
results are summarized within its news and latest results sections. A poll focusing on upstate
New York is a joint effort of Zogby and Colgate University. Use the Zogby site for snippets
focusing on Upstate issues, and try to ignore its ubiquitous self-promotional sound bites.
Southeast
Arkansas Poll, Blair Center for the Study of Southern Politics and Society,
University of Arkansas
An annual poll begun in 1999, it addresses public policy issues at the state and national levels as
well as attitudes toward ballot initiatives. Extensive summary reports, documentation and
methodology files, and data downloads in SPSS and SAS formats.
Institute for Public Opinion Research, Florida International University
Conducts the annual FIU/Florida Polls on the quality of life for Floridians, as well as other surveys
on topics specific to the Southeast. With the FIU Cuban Research Institute, it also conducts the
occasional Cuba Poll of Cuban Americans residing in the Miami area.
Survey and Evaluation Research Laboratory, Virginia Commonwealth
University
Home of several polls, including the Commonwealth Poll, (attitudes towards political candidates
and election issues), the Commonwealth Education Poll, and the VCU Life Sciences Survey (a
national poll on ethical and public policy implications of scientific discovery). (As of early 2006, the
Commonwealth Poll appears to be defunct.)
Virginia Tech Center for Survey Research
Home of the annual Quality of Life in Virginia survey.
Midwest
Office of Survey Research , Institute for Public Policy and Social Research,
Michigan State University
Since 1994, IPPSR has conducted the quarterly State of the State poll of Michigan residents. The
site's Data on Demand function is slick beyond words. It permits online analysis of results, access
to printed reports and documentation, and the ability to download datasets in SPSS format.
Public Opinion Laboratory, Indiana University - Purdue University,
Indianapolis
A survey research facility that also functions as a learning lab for students. It polls Hoosier
attitudes on crime, the State's lottery, race relations, underage drinking--and basketball. Most of
the findings available online are limited to election poll results and surveys on charitable giving
conducted in cooperation with the Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University.
Survey Research Center, University of Cincinnati
Home of the Ohio Poll and the Greater Cincinnati Survey.
University of Wisconsin Survey Center
Home of the Badger Poll of Wisconsin residents. Begun in 2002, it asks opinions about nationaland state-level issues. Badger Poll datasets are archived by the UW Data & Information Services
Center.
West
Field (California) Poll
California registered voters are polled for their opinions on electoral issues, statewide referenda,
economic affairs, and other public policy topics. A searchable index to codebook contents, 1979
to date, is hosted at UC San Diego. Field Poll datasets are available for public FTP from UC
Berkeley.
Los Angeles Times Polls Index
Summarizes polls back to 1996 conducted on the national or on the state or local level in
California. Poll StatSheets (in PDF) go back to 1996 and each "contains the full question wording
and sequence, current and past results (trend) for each question and a description of the survey
methodology." Strong focus on California political, social, and economic issues. Some poll
summaries require free registration, but the StatSheets have no registration requirement.
Montana State University Billings Poll
An annual poll conducted before Election Day. A primary focus is on performance of federal and
state elected officials, although state topics such as environment, education, and fiscal policy are
also covered.
Oregon Survey Research Lab, University of Oregon
The Oregon Survey Research Lab conducted a variety of surveys on topics of general interest
and those specific to Oregon. Although the Lab closed in June 2005, about 200 datasets are
available from the University of Oregon Libraries and Lab download archive (by survey title)
Social Research Laboratory, Northern Arizona University
Summaries of the Arizona Survey (also called the Grand Canyon State Poll), which was first
conducted in 1994. Question items and reports (in PDF) for surveys since approximately 2000.
Select Reports from the header bar.
Non-U.S., Multinational or Cross-National Surveys
Centre for Applied Social Surveys, Social and Community Planning Research
and University of Southampton
The Centre's Question Bank is a repository of questions used in its surveys on a variety of social
attitudes. A good source for the wording and format of survey questions.
European Public Opinion/L'opinion publique européenne
This site represents the Public Opinion Analysis section of the European Commission and reports
results of surveys conducted of European Union citizens on their attitudes toward the EU, its
political and economic policies, and social values held by individuals. Primary among these is the
Eurobarometer, and the site provides the ability to review responses to questions over time in
survey countries. Survey coverage has recently expanded to include many countries in Central
and Eastern Europe, the Candidate Countries Eurobarometer. CISER owns selected
Eurobarometer datasets, and they are also available from ICPSR.)
International Social Survey Programme
A collaborative effort of social science research organizations in over 40 countries, the ISSP asks
a battery of questions in all countries and focuses on a theme that is repeated at irregular
intervals. Past topics iclude religion, the role of goverment, social inequality, and the environment.
Zentralarchiv für Empirische Sozialforschung at the University of Cologne maintains an archive of
the surveys, including the ZACAT tool that creates custom tables and extracts from ISSP studies
back to 1985. ZACAT requires user registration. (CISER and ICPSR have many of the ISSP
studies.)
Japanese Data Archive
Latin American Survey Data Bank
The Roper Center hosts these specialized archives, each consisting of about 1,000 titles. The
one for Latin America represents 16 countries, with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru, and
Venezuela studies forming the bulk of the collection. There is a searchable catalog of survey
descriptions but no question-level access. An increasing number of these datasets can be
downloaded through RoperExpress, and CISER can acquire others for Cornell users as needed.
The Japanese Data Archive permits question-level access to its holdings through the JPOLL
database. Access to JPOLL is free but requires online registration.
Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP)
Political views are the focus of LAPOP surveys conducted in 20 countries. Survey years vary,
with some as far back as the 1970s. (There are also a few representing Albania, Israel, and
Madagascar, for reasons not explained on the site.) Use of the online query and analysis system
is free, and the microdata (in SPSS) can be purchased. LAPOP is also home to
AmericasBarometer, a series begun in 2004 to measure attitudes toward democratic values and
behaviors in the Western hemisphere. Affiliated with the Center for the Americas, Vanderbilt
University.
World Public Opinion
Brings together reports on opinion polls conducted in countries that are often overlooked by large
media outlets. The amount of information on individual polls varies widely: lengthy summaries,
copies of questionnaires and methodology reports, comparative graphics, detailed summary
tables. Locate surveys by geographic region or topic. "Related Links" specific to each category
identify international sources of polling organizations. There's relatively limited retrospective
coverage. A project of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, University of Maryland.
Other Lists of Public Opinion Sites
Guide to Public Opinion Poll Web Sites: Polling Data from Around the World
An annotated list of sites, this article was also published in C&RL News, October 2006.
Polling and Public Opinion Data: A Research Guide
Composed and maintained by Cornell University Library. Although printed and electronic holdings
are specific to CUL holdings, this is a valuable list of resources, especially of tools that provide
historical coverage of polls.
Public Opinion, University of California, Irvine
Although much content is specific to the University of California-Irvine, this guide contains key
links to public opinion sites, specialized polls, and distributors of survey data. Cites many unique
locations, particiularly related to minority groups, and is frequently updated. Also includes links to
related professional associations, article and book indexes, and reference works in electronic and
printed formats.
Public Opinion and Attitudes , Data & Information Services Center,
University of Wisconsin
As close to an exhaustive list as one might find with lengthy, evaluative annotations.
Public Opinion Subject Guide, Yale University
Includes information on printed indexes, online indexes, and web sites to surveys and polling
organizations. Maintained by Yale's Social Sciences Libraries. Outstanding up-to-date lists.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After students have read and studied this chapter, they should be able to:
 Define what we mean by public opinion and explain its uses by policy-makers and interest
groups.
 Describe consensus opinion and divisive opinion.
 Explain how public opinion is formed in the United States, including political socialization
by families, education, peers, the media, opinion leaders, and the influence of events.
 Explain the influence of education and occupation on voting behavior.
 Explain the influence of socioeconomic status.
 Explain the influence of religion, race and ethnicity, and geographical region.
 Define and explain the gender gap.
 Describe the flaws of early opinion polls.
 Describe current sampling techniques, including random sampling and quota sampling.
 Explain problems associated with telephone and Internet polls.
 Describe the trends in public opinion regarding trust in government and confidence in
institutions.
 Describe some of the limits to the value of polls in making policy decisions.
TOPICS FOR DISCUSSION
Ask students (who wish to volunteer) to analyze how they themselves have been socialized
politically. Compare and contrast the socialization of students with different backgrounds.
What differences and similarities are there between these different individuals?
A major concern for many Americans appears to be a lack of confidence in political leaders and a
decline in political trust of government. An example of how big this problem has become is
the lack of participation in the 2000 presidential election. Less than half of the adult
population participated. If public confidence in the political system continues to decline,
turnout rates could fall to an all time low. If the public has minimal involvement in the
political process will democracy continue to function?
BEYOND THE BOOK
Ask students to devise a way to measure public opinion on your campus for a topic like Should
the legal age to purchase alcoholic beverages be raised to 25? Would a quota poll be
accurate? How could a random sample be used?
CHAPTER OUTLINE
In the United States and other democracies, people possess a variety of ways by which they can
communicate their opinions to government officials and others. In turn, officials recognize the
importance of public opinion, and often change policy (or have their positions bolstered) based on
public opinion. While in some cases public opinion is clear and decisive, oftentimes it is murkier.
In addition, public opinion can be shaped by the very policymakers who must also respond to it.
That is, government officials do play a role in political socialization and often shape public
opinion on a variety of issues.
I. Defining Public Opinion
Public opinion is the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of
adults. Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of
action to express an opinion to others publicly. We can look to the distribution of public
opinion to determine how divided the public is on any given issue. When there is general
agreement on an issue, there is said to be a consensus. When opinions are sharply divided,
there is divisive opinion.
II. How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization
A. Models of Political Socialization. Political socialization is the process by which
individuals acquire political beliefs and attitudes. The interactions an individual has
with others have a major impact on the formation of individual opinion.
B. The Family and the Social Environment. The importance of the family is paramount in
the development of individual opinion. Political attitudes begin to develop in children
and the major influence on these early values is the family.
1. Education as a Source of Political Socialization. Educational influence on political
opinions is also important. Education introduces individuals to ideas outside of the
home and outside of the local community. These new ideas may influence the
individual to accept opinions that are different from those of the parents.
2. Peers and Peer Group Influence. As people interact with others in school, at work
or in social activities, various values come into play. These values can influence
how opinions are formed.
3. Opinion Leaders’ Influence. Leaders, both formal and informal, also tend to shape
the opinions of the public. Formal leaders include political leaders like the
president, governors, and members of Congress. Formal leaders make a conscious
effort to shape the opinions of the public. Informal leaders may not necessarily
attempt to shape the political opinions of the public, but they still exert an
influence on opinion formation. Examples of informal leaders are teachers,
religious leaders, and civic leaders.
C. The Impact of the Media. The media also play a significant role in the political
socialization. The media present information on important political topics. How topics
are presented and which topics are presented have a major impact in opinion
formation.
D. The Influence of Political Events. Generally older Americans tend to be somewhat
more conservative than younger Americans, particularly on social and economic
issues. This is known as the lifestyle effect. Political events can produce a long-lasting
impact on opinion formation. An important example was the impact of the Great
Depression on people who came of age in that period. We call such an impact a
generational effect, or a cohort effect. While it is likely that the events of September
11, 2001 will play an important role in the political socialization of young Americans,
it is still unclear what this impact will be.
III. Political Preferences and Voting Behavior.
The candidate and political party that individuals decide to support are influenced in part
by certain demographic and socioeconomic factors.
A. Demographic Influences. Demographic traits exert a major influence over the
development of one’s opinion.
1. Education. For years, higher education levels appeared to correlate with voting for
Republican candidates. Since 1992, however, voters with higher levels of
education have been voting increasingly Democratic, so that in the 2000 election,
these voters were nearly evenly divided between Al Gore and George W. Bush.
The reason seems to be that professionals (such as lawyers, physicians, professors,
etc.) are trending Democratic. Therefore, persons with postgraduate degrees
(necessary to many professionals) now often vote Democratic. Businesspeople
have remained strongly Republican, however. Businesspeople are less likely to
have postgraduate degrees, which is why the population with bachelor’s degrees
continues to favor the Republicans.
2. The Influence of Economic Status. Economic status and occupation appear to
influence political views. On issues of economic policy, individuals who have less
income tend to favor liberal policies, while individuals of the upper middle class
favor conservative policies. On cultural issues the reverse tends to be true. Those
with less income are more conservative and those with higher incomes are more
liberal.
3. Economic Status and Voting Behavior. The Democratic Party also tends to receive
support from people employed as manual laborers and from union workers.
4. Religious Influence: Denomination. Religious influence appears to have a
significant impact on the development of political opinions. For example, the
Jewish community is likely to vote for Democratic candidates. Irreligious voters
tend to be liberal on cultural issues, but to have mixed stands on economic issues.
A century ago, Catholics were often Democrats and Protestants Republican, but
little remains of that tradition.
5. Religious Influence: Religiosity and Evangelicals. Recent trends show that the
level of devoutness (rather than denomination) correlated with voting. Those who
attend church regularly are more likely to vote Republican, no matter what the
denomination. This tendency does not apply to African Americans, however, who
demonstrate both high levels of religious commitment and generally liberal
politics.
6. The Influence of Race and Ethnicity. In general, members of minority groups favor
the Democrats. African Americans do so by overwhelming margins. Hispanics are
voting Democratic by about two to one, though the Cuban American vote is
strongly Republican. Asian Americans tend to support the Democrats but often by
narrow margins. American Muslims of Middle Eastern descent gave George Bush
majority support in 2000 based on shared cultural conservatism, but went heavily
for John Kerry in 2004 on the basis of civil liberties concerns.
7. The Gender Gap. Key term: the gender gap, or the difference between the
percentage of women who vote for a particular candidate and the percentage of
men who vote for the candidate. Since 1980 women have tended to give somewhat
more support to Democratic candidates for president and men have given
somewhat more support to the Republicans. Women have been more supportive of
social spending and extending civil rights. They have also been more concerned
than men about security in the wake of 9/11, however. Republicans have benefited
from this and the gender gap in the 2004 election proved to be quite modest.
8. Reasons for the Gender Gap. Some researchers have argued that a decline in
marriage rates and an increase in the number of divorces has depressed the income
of many women, who tend to be helped economically by marriage. And indeed,
single women appear to be unusually Democratic. Other researchers, however,
note that the gender gap rises with education and that it persists among welleducated married women.
9. Geographic Region. In presidential elections, Democrats tend to get support from
the Northeast and the West Coast. Republicans do well in the South, the Great
Plains, and the Rocky Mountains. The Midwest tends to split (and sometimes
decides elections). Even more importantly, cities are typically Democratic while
the countryside in most places is Republican.
B. Election-Specific Factors
1. Party Identification. This is the strongest determinant of an individual’s vote. If an
individual identifies with a particular party, there is a greater likelihood this person
will vote and support the candidates of that party.
2. Perception of the Candidates. The candidate who is more successful in projecting
an image that the public wants has a better chance of winning the election.
Typically, these traits have to do with character, especially trustworthiness.
3. Issue Preferences. Although not as important as party identification or image,
where a candidate stands on a given issue does have an impact on voters.
Economic issues are often the most important. Some voters may cast votes based
on their own economic interests, while others will vote based on what is happening
to the nation’s economy as a whole.
IV. Measuring Public Opinion
A. The History of Opinion Polls. As early as the 1800s, the press conducted “straw polls.”
Such polls were not an accurate reflection of public opinion. The Literary Digest
conducted the most infamous of these in 1936. Franklin Roosevelt was elected in a
landslide after the poll conducted by the Digest had projected his defeat. The Digest’s
sample, taken from its readership, was not representative of the entire nation. In the
1930s, however, relatively accurate polling techniques were developed by George
Gallup, Elmo Roper, and others. Survey research centers were set up at several
universities after World War II.
B. Sampling Techniques
1. Representative Sampling. To accurately predict the whole based on only a sample,
the sample must be representative.
2. The Principle of Randomness. A purely random sample will be representative
within the stated margin of error. For a poll to be random, every person in the
defined population has to have an equal chance of being selected. The larger the
sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error. If a random sample,
with a margin of error of + or - 3%, reveals that 63% of the population favors a
reduction in spending for space exploration, the actual number of people favoring
such a reduction is somewhere between 60% to 66%. Making sure that a sample is
random is a major task. A technique known as quota sampling may depart from the
random model, and thus be less accurate. In quota sampling, researchers decide
how many persons of certain types they need in the survey—such as minorities,
women, or farmers—and then send out interviewers to find the necessary number
of these types. Within the categories, the sample may be nonrandom and therefore
biased.
C. Problems with Polls. While random samples are usually accurate, there can still be
problems. If the margin of error is greater than the difference between two candidates,
the poll cannot indicate who is leading at that time. Polls are only accurate for the time
frame when they were conducted. In the case of an issue in which public opinion
changes quickly, the length of time the poll will be accurate will be very short.
1. Sampling Errors. Key concept: sampling error, or the difference between a
sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed.
There exists danger if the sample is too small or if the polltakers do not know how
to correct for common biases in samples.
2. Poll Questions. The design of a question can affect the result. Yes/no answers are a
problem if the issue involves shades of gray. Often, people will attempt to please
the interviewer and provide answers that are not indicative of their true beliefs.
3. Push Polls. Push polls are not polls at all, but are attempts to spread negative views
about a candidate.
V. Technology and Opinion Polls
A. The Advent of Telephone Polling. Telephone polling is far easier and less expensive
than door-to-door polling, and has become standard.
1. Telephone Polling Problems. The telemarketing industry has now become so
pervasive that people increasingly refuse to respond. Almost half of households
now use caller ID or some form of call screening, reducing the number of people
that polling organizations can reach. In addition, the popularity of cell phones
means an even greater quantity of numbers that polling organizations can’t reach.
2. Nonresponse Rates Have Skyrocketed. The nonresponse rate has reached 80% in
some cases. A poll in which only 20% of the audience is reached can hardly be
considered to involve a random sample.
B. Enter Internet Polling. Harris has attempted to design Internet polls that properly
weigh respondents to produce an accurate result. However, much of the population is
not online (for example, less than half of all African American men) so many
observers believe that the Harris effort cannot be made acceptable. It must be noted
however that the online population grows to resemble the population of the nation
daily.
1. “Nonpolls” on the Internet. There are many unscientific straw polls on the Internet.
2. Will Internet Polling Contribute to the Devaluation of Polling Results? With the
proliferation of unscientific Internet polls there is a risk that people will cease to
regard them as believable and to cynically question all polls.
VI. Public Opinion and the Political Process
A. Political Culture and Popular Opinion. Political culture can be described as a set of
attitudes and ideas about the nation and government. Certain shared beliefs about
important values are considered the core of American political culture. They bind the
nation together despite its highly diverse population. These values include liberty,
equality, and property; support for religion; and community service and personal
achievement.
1. Political Culture and Support for Our Political System. General popular belief that
the presidential election of 2000 would be settled fairly is an example of how a
general sense of support for our political system allows the nation to weather a
crisis.
2. Political Trust. General levels of trust in government have gone up and down.
Levels were high immediately following 9/11 but were much lower in the wake of
the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal.
B. Public Opinion about Government.
It is clear that there is considerable ambivalence on the part of the public regarding
government and other national institutions. Recent data suggests that trust in
government peaked after 9/11 but dropped thereafter. Over the years the military and
churches have been the institutions receiving the highest levels of public confidence.
After 9/11, confidence in the military reached new highs. Confidence in churches was
hurt in 2002 by a series of sexual abuse scandals. Banks and the Supreme Court also
score highly, while the media, Congress, labor unions, and business come off more
poorly. To a great degree public opinion on the leading problems facing the nation is a
reflection of the issues covered by the media.
C. Public Opinion and Policymaking.
What role should public opinion play in the political process? Should political leaders
rely on public opinion polls to make public policy? The general public believes the
leadership should pay attention to popular opinion. Leaders themselves are less likely
to believe this.
1. Setting Limits on Government Action. Public opinion may be at its strongest in
preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies.
2. The Limits of Polling. There are differences of opinion between the public and
policymakers on this issue. Part of the difference stems from one of the flaws of
polling: poll questions largely ignore the context within which most policy
decisions take place. That is, people are likely to express opinions on many kinds
of policies without being required to consider the costs or a choice of trade-offs.
VII. Features
A. What If . . . Students Were Required to Pass a National Civics Exam?
Although requiring students to pass a national civics exam would in all likelihood
produce a population with greater knowledge about our system and increased turnout
in elections, it would also produce any number of problems, including the
determination of who would teach the government courses that would produce this
knowledge. The increase in the amount spent on classes dealing with civics could very
well result in a decrease in the funds available for teaching in other important areas.
B. Which Side Are You On? The Media and Agenda Setting.
One of the most frequently voiced complaints about the media is that it imposes its own
agenda upon an unsuspecting and unquestioning American public, although some
respond that with the emergence of the Internet it is now possible for Americans to
easily do the research necessary to make their own determinations about the most
important issues.
C. Politics and Polls—The Issue of Push Polls.
Sometimes a poll is not an attempt to ascertain what the people think, but rather an
attempt to influence what the people think by exposing them to false information
presented as questions. This is the case with “push polls.” Although such a
manipulation may be unethical, it is not illegal. In fact, the use of push polls is growing
at the local, state and national level.
D. Beyond Our Borders: World Opinion of the United States
The world view of the United States after 9/11 was decidedly favorable but began to
sour with the invasion of Iraq. By 2006 the world’s opinion of the United States, and
of George W. Bush, was quite unfavorable, especially among Arab and Muslim
nations.
Lecture
This chapter deals with the formation of public opinion and its influence upon the
American political system. A major theme is that public opinion is a powerful and yet
inexact force in American politics. The chapter’s main points are:
Public opinion consists of those views held by ordinary citizens that are openly
expressed. Public officials have many means of gauging public opinion but increasingly
have relied on public opinion polls to make this determination.
The process by which individuals acquire their political opinions is called political
socialization. This process begins in childhood, when, through family and school,
Americans acquire many of their basic political values and beliefs. Socialization
continues unto adulthood, during which peers, political institutions and leaders, and the
news media are major influences.
Americans’ political opinions are shaped by several frames of reference. Four of the
most important are ideology, group attachments, partisanship, and political culture.
These frames of reference form the basis for political consensus and conflict among the
general public.
Public opinion has an important influence on government but ordinarily does not directly
determine what officials will do. Public opinion works primarily to impose limits and
directions on the choices made by officials.
Take the role of public opinion during the Iraqi War and particularly its influence upon
President Bush’s actions during that crisis, for example. Public opinion consists of those
views held by ordinary citizens which government takes into account in making its
decisions. However, public opinion in America is not homogeneous—there are many
"publics" and opinion may be lacking, contradictory, or only applicable to major issues.
So, it is relatively difficult to run a government by relying on "majority" opinion.
Public officials do have many ways of assessing public opinion, such as election
outcomes or mass demonstrations. However, officials have found opinion polls to be
more reliable. Modern polls are based upon a representative, randomly selected sample
that in turn mirrors the opinion characteristics contained in a much larger "population."
For example, the Gallup Poll only interviews a thousand or so carefully-selected
individuals who in turn represent millions of American voters. Polls are not
infallible—they can be invalidated through poor wording of questions, unrepresentative
sampling, or other ways. (See OLC simulation, "Updating an Opinion Poll," at
www.mhhe.com/patterson5.) However, a properly conducted poll can provide an accurate
indication of what the public is thinking and can dissuade political leaders from believing
that the views of the most vocal citizen are also the views of the broader public. Polls can
also indicate to leaders the direction, intensity, or stability of opinions.
Public opinion has a significant influence on government but seldom determines exactly
what government will do in a particular instance. Public opinion serves to constrain the
policy choices of officials. Some policy actions are beyond the range of possibility
because the public will not accept change in existing policy or will not seriously consider
policy that seems clearly at odds with basic American values. Evidence indicates that
officials are reasonably attentive to public opinion on highly visible and controversial
issues of public policy. Finally, the question remains as to whether government is
sufficiently responsive to public opinion.
This chapter also focuses on political participation and its various forms. It highlights
voting as the most common form of political activity, examining the impact of
registration, civic duty, party competition, socioeconomic status, and other important
factors on voter turnout. The chapter examines differences in the extent of political
participation, emphasizing the effects of both individual and systemic factors. The main
points of this chapter are:
Voter turnout in U.S. elections is low in comparison with that of other democratic
nations. The reasons for this difference include the nature of U.S. election laws,
particularly those pertaining to registration requirements and the scheduling of elections.
Most citizens do not participate actively in politics in ways other than voting. Only a
small proportion of Americans can be classified as political activists.
Most Americans make a sharp distinction between their personal lives and national
life. This attitude reduces their incentive to participate and contributes to a pattern of
participation dominated by citizens with higher levels of income and education.
Political participation is sharing in activities designed to influence public policy and
leadership. A main issue of democratic government is the question of who participates in
politics and how fully they participate.
Voting is the most widespread form of active political participation among
Americans. (See OLC simulation "Redistricting," at www.mhhe.com/patterson5.) Yet
voter turnout is significantly lower in the United States than in other democratic
nations. The requirement that Americans must personally register in order to establish
their eligibility to vote is one reason for lower turnout among Americans; other
democracies place the burden of registration on governmental officials rather than on the
individual citizen. The fact that the U.S. holds frequent elections also discourages some
citizens from voting regularly. Finally, the major American political parties, unlike many
of those in Europe, do not clearly represent the interests of opposing economic classes;
thus the policy stakes in American elections are correspondingly reduced. Some
Americans do not vote because they think that policy will not change greatly regardless
of which party gains power.
Only a minority of citizens engage in the more demanding forms of political activity,
such as working on behalf of a candidate during a political campaign, taking an
active part in the community, or closely following political news through traditional
media and/or the Internet. The proportion of Americans who engage in these more
demanding forms of activity exceeds the proportion of Europeans who do so. (However,
some scholars believe that the level of civic involvement is falling in the United States,
with potentially adverse effects for democracy here.) Nevertheless, only about five in
every twenty Americans will take an active part in a political organization at some point
in their lives, although perhaps no more than one in twenty is highly active in politics at
any given time. Most political activists are individuals of higher income and education;
they have the skills and material resources to participate effectively and tend to have a
greater interest in politics. More than in any other Western democracy, political
participation in the United States is related to socioeconomic status.
Prospective voting is one way the public can exert influence through elections. It is the
most demanding approach to voting: Voters must develop their own policy preferences
and then must educate themselves about the candidates’ positions. The voters must also
set aside other considerations, such as the candidates’ personalities. The degree of
prospective voting rises and falls with the importance of the issues of the day, but the
electorate as a whole is generally not well informed about the candidates’ stands and is
only partially inclined to vote for candidates on the basis of policies they advocate.
Retrospective voting demands less from voters: They need only decide whether the
government has been performing well or poorly in terms of the goals and values they
hold. The evidence suggests that the electorate is, in fact, reasonably sensitive to past
governmental performance, particularly in relation to economic prosperity, and that such
judgments affect voting to a significant degree, especially in presidential elections.
Social movements are broad efforts to achieve change by citizens who feel that
government is not properly responsive to their interests. These efforts sometimes take
place outside established channels; demonstrations, picket lines, and marches are
common means of protest. Protesters are younger and more idealistic on average than
other citizens, but they are very small proportion of the population. In addition, protest
activities do not have much public support, despite the country’s tradition of free
expression.
Overall, Americans are only moderately involved in politics. They are concerned with
political affairs but immersed in their private pursuits, a reflection in part of our culture’s
emphasis on individualism. The lower level of participation among poorer citizens has
particular significance in that it works to reduce their influence on public policy and
leadership.
Political Spectrum
Left
Radical
Center
Liberal
Moderate
Right
Conservative
Reactionary
Radical--Favors extreme change to create an entirely
new social system
Liberal--Believes that government must take action to
change economic, political, and ideological policies that
may be unfair
Moderate -- Opposed to extreme or radical views or
measures. Middle of the road
Conservative—Seeks to keep in place the economic,
political, and ideological structures of society
Reactionary – favors extreme change to restore society
to an earlier state
Political
Spectrum
Radical
Liberal
Left
Wing
Centrist
Moderate
Conservative
Reactionary
Right
Wing
Public Opinion
Public Opinion, the expressed views of a group of people about issues of
common interest or concern. Opinion is not subject to verifiable proof. It
commonly represents a value judgment or preference, or an estimate of the
outcome of future events. Private opinions cannot form a part of public
opinion unless they are expressed in some way. There can be no public
opinion about individual concerns unless these concerns become of common
interest. The relevant public is most often considered to be the adult citizenry
of a political unit such as a town, or a nation. But one may also speak of
neighborhood public opinion, public opinion within various subgroups of a
population, or even world public opinion.
Although opinions, attitudes, and values are often compared or confused,
most authorities regard attitudes as more fundamental generalized
predispositions, opinions as specific manifestations of underlying attitudes,
and values as people's ideals and the commitments they make to pursue
them. A person's expressed opinion will normally reflect his or her attitude
toward the issue, although, for reasons of social or political pressure, that
person may conceal his or her attitude or express a contrary opinion.
Attitudes themselves are products of cultural, social, and psychological
factors affecting each individual. Values often involve religious beliefs,
standards for interpersonal relations, or moral and ethical judgments. All
three enter into the formation of public opinion in the term's broadest sense.
When an event occurs or an issue arises, values may be tested, individual
attitudes are activated, public discussion ensues, attitudes and values are
modified or strengthened, and public opinion is formed.
Opinion is most often characterized with respect to direction, intensity,
breadth, and depth. Direction refers to the for-or-against continuum; opinion
can be described as preponderantly favorable or unfavorable or divided with
respect to an issue. Intensity refers to the strength with which an opinion is
held. Breadth refers to its scope or generality; opinion can be highly specific
to a particular issue, or it can be generalized, so that opinions on many
related issues reinforce one another. The depth of opinion refers to its
anchorage in the individual's system of values. It differs from intensity in that
an opinion may be strongly held yet susceptible to change through the
influence of contrary evidence, while deeply rooted opinions are much more
difficult to shift.
Public opinion depends on freedom of communication and expression. If
communication is difficult or restricted, public opinion is less likely to form or
change. Thus public opinion is usually more powerful in a free, open, and
advanced society than it is in a primitive or a closed society though even in
the latter it cannot be ignored.
In the United States, a nation whose government is explicitly held to derive
its powers from "the consent of the governed," political leaders and students
of government early recognized the need for some means of knowing what
people were thinking and saying. Abraham Lincoln said: "What I want to get
done is what the people desire to have done, and the question for me is how
to find that out exactly." British historian James Bryce wrote in 1888: "The
obvious weakness of government by public opinion is the difficulty of
ascertaining it." Efforts to ascertain public opinion have long been
characteristic of a democratic society. As the society has become more
affluent and more knowledgeable and its problems more complex, the
techniques used by public opinion researchers have become more
sophisticated and more precise.
The findings of the major public opinion polls today are more reliable and
more revealing than could have been imagined in an earlier time. Their
obvious contribution has been to substitute objective measurement of
people's opinions and behavior for the guesswork that once surrounded these
matters. Survey evidence may still be ambiguous or misleading, but it is no
longer possible for minority pressure groups to claim popular support,
because polling organizations have the ability to acquire objective evidence.
Nor is it any longer necessary for business people, educators, political
candidates, or government officials to proceed on the basis of subjective
estimates of the public's knowledge, interests, or opinion.
Users of Public Opinion Research. Public opinion research is probably best
known to the public through the reports of the Gallup Poll and the Harris
Survey whose syndicated releases appear regularly in newspapers and
magazines throughout the United States. These surveys publish findings
about public opinion with respect to social, political, and economic issues,
and they have charted changes in public opinion over a period of years. The
Gallup Poll, for example, asks a cross section of the public almost every
month whether they approve or disapprove of the performance of the
incumbent president. Interest in the published polls peaks with each
presidential election, when Gallup and Harris run "trial heats" between
candidates in the preconvention period to determine the size and nature of
support behind each candidate, and then provide regular reports on the
progress of the election campaign. Candidates for public office also rely
heavily on public opinion surveys to sharpen their campaign appeals and to
guide the allocation of their limited time and resources.
Despite the publicity given to the published polls, by far the biggest users of
public opinion research are business and industry. Many companies have
their own research departments or combine the function with advertising or
marketing. Their interests range from attempts to measure the effects of
their advertising, to controlled tests of new products, or to efforts to
understand and improve their public image. Newspapers, magazines, and
broadcasters use surveys to ascertain the opinions as well as the size and
characteristics of their audiences.
Except for a period during World War II, there has never been, as in Britain
and France, a special government agency in the United States responsible for
surveying public opinion. But federal departments sponsor a great deal of
opinion and attitude research. The federal government first encouraged such
surveys when it established a congressional mandate that set aside funds for
evaluation of the many social programs that were initiated in the 1960s.
Since then, federal, state, and local governments have increasingly funded
surveys to assist them in setting priorities and monitoring the results of
established programs.
A final group of survey users are private foundations, voluntary agencies,
sociologists, and political scientists. Their interest is usually in broad social
trends, in the determinants of social decisions, and in the structure and
effects of the opinion process itself. Sociologists frequently use public opinion
polls to measure such phenomena as ethnic and religious prejudice. Political
scientists, for example, utilize public opinion surveys to study voting
decisions and to examine the makeup of political party coalitions.
Public Opinion Research Methods. The basic methods of public opinion
research are questionnaires, interviewers, and samples. The least expensive
method of polling is the mail questionnaire. This type of poll is effective,
especially when a lengthy or a complex set of questions needs to be
answered by a very interested group, but this approach frequently yields low
returns and a slow response rate. While the Gallup and Roper organizations
still conduct much of their interviewing in respondents' homes, telephone
interviewing has become the preferred polling method. It is far less
expensive and more efficient than in-person interviewing.
Polling organizations also use different types of samples to measure public
opinion. The earliest polls relied on the quota method whereby census
information was used to find the distribution of the population by such
attributes as age, education, or income. National samples of the United
States usually include from 1,500 to 3,000 interviews. If each household or
individual has a known and equal probability of being selected, then such a
relatively small number of persons will accurately reflect with only a small
potential margin for error the opinions of the total population. Although the
quota method of selecting a sample is still used, polling organizations now
rely on probability principles to select their samples. Applied to telephone
interviewing, this method translates into random-digit dialing, whereby the
polling organization works with a telephone company to obtain three-digit
prefixes and assigned banks of the latter four digits.
Questionnaires have become more refined as researchers have moved from
simple referendum-like questions to attempts to measure all dimensions of
public opinion. Respondents may be asked about their perceptions of the
issue, the amount and sources of their information, their attitudes toward
related issues, or their readiness to act on their views. They may be asked to
choose from a number of statements the one that comes closest to their
opinion, to rank various issues in order of importance, or to answer a battery
of agree-disagree items. They may even be given word-association or
sentence-completion tests to reveal underlying attitudes. Most interviews
conclude with questions to ascertain such facts as the respondent's
occupation, education, and age, for subsequent use in analysis.
Survey data are normally fed into a computer and processed electronically.
Advances in technology allow data to be keyed directly from questionnaire to
machine. Once stored in the computer, the survey data can be subjected to
endless analysis. Standardized software programs are available to produce
statistical tables with great speed and economy.
Criticisms of Public Opinion Research. Critics often argue that surveying
methods are subject to bias because it all depends on how you ask the
question. Furthermore, how does one know that people are telling the truth?
Both dangers exist, but in the hands of a professional polltaker the risks are
minimized. Biased surveys commonly result from ignorance or design. They
should be detected by alert editors and readers. In any case their influence
will be diminished by publication of more accurate polls. As for validity of
replies, researchers point to cross-checks on consistency of opinions, to
routine validation measures, and to the privacy and confidentiality of the
interview situation. Empirically, they point to the excellent record of election
forecasts and to the increasing use of survey techniques by business and
government to acquire necessary information.
Critics have also charged that it is idle to poll a sample of people about an
issue and then add up the answers, as if all respondents had equal
knowledge, involvement, and influence. While basically defending a
philosophy of "sampling one person, one vote" in a democratic society, most
researchers recognize the validity of this criticism. But they point to
questions on their questionnaires designed to measure just such
characteristics as knowledge, interest, and influence, in order that these can
be controlled in their analysis of the findings.
Some critics accept but fear the accuracy of public opinion research. They
argue that officials will abandon their leadership role and will follow the
shifting majorities of the public on every issue; that minority thought will be
stifled as publication of survey findings leads people to accept the majority
views; and that research results can be used to manipulate the public against
its own best interests. None can say that such fears are groundless, but
researchers reply that some leaders have always sought to follow public
opinion or to manipulate it, and these always will. And they point to many
examples of minority viewpoints that ultimately become the prevailing
sentiment of the public. Finally, researchers point out that if there were no
scientifically conducted polls, some less accurate method of ascertaining
public opinion would have to be relied on instead.
History of Public Opinion Research. The origins of public opinion research
in the United States are generally traced to newspaper straw votes; the
earliest recorded example occurred in 1824. By 1900 it was not uncommon
for newspapers to enliven their election coverage by asking readers to fill out
and return straw ballots. The popularity of these local polls led national
magazines to attempt their own. The Farm Journal was first, in 1912, but
from 1916 to 1936 the Literary Digest was foremost in the field. It regularly
forecasted election results correctly, and surveyed public opinion on such
issues as prohibition. During the 1936 presidential campaign, the Digest
mailed more than 10 million ballots to telephone subscribers and automobile
owners, and more than 2 million returns were tabulated. But the result was a
fiasco. Not only did the survey predict that the Republican candidate, Alfred
M. Landon, would win, but it overestimated his percentage of the vote by
about 20%. Landon carried only two states.
For more than 100 years, efforts to ascertain public opinion had relied on
straw ballots, sidewalk surveys, or mail questionnaires. The weakness of all
these methods, dramatically illustrated by the Digest's performance in 1936,
lay in their failure to guard against a biased sample of replies. In 1936,
telephone subscribers and automobile owners tended to be more affluent and
to vote Republican. Less-affluent and less-educated voters were badly
underrepresented in the Digest's final sample. A further weakness of the
early polls was their practice of cumulating ballots throughout the campaign,
so that those cast in August had the same weight as those cast in October.
Modern Techniques. In the same election that embarrassed the Digest,
three newcomers to political polling accurately forecasted the result. These
were the American Institute of Public Opinion, founded by George Gallup a
year earlier; the Fortune Survey, conducted by Paul Cherington and Elmo
Roper; and the Crossley Poll, under the direction of Archibald Crossley. They
achieved their results by means of personal interviews with small but
selected samples of voters. By assigning specific quotas of men and women
to be interviewed in various age groups and economic levels, these polltakers
avoided most of the biases that had invalidated the Digest's huge sample.
The new methods had been pioneered by advertising and marketing
researchers a decade or more earlier. The first serious efforts at consumer
research had begun in the 1920s, and by 1936 many companies were
conducting personal interviews with selected samples of consumers.
The success of these three national polls led to a vast expansion of public
opinion research. Polls were no longer regarded as mere editorial features to
pique reader interest in the outcome of an election. Gallup's thrice-weekly
releases through a national newspaper syndicate poured out a constant
stream of findings on public opinion, beliefs, expectations, and behavior with
respect to many issues. For many years, the Fortune survey did the same
each month. In 1941 the National Opinion Research Center was established
as the first noncommercial opinion research agency. Polls sponsored by
newspapers were established in several states.
Government Uses. The first regular use of public opinion research by
government occurred in 1939, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture
established a Division of Program Surveys to study farm opinion. Directed by
Rensis Likert, the division developed techniques that have become standard.
These included probability sampling methods, which reduced interviewers'
freedom of choice in obtaining respondents; more frequent use of openended rather than yes-or-no questions; and batteries of questions to form a
scale of opinion instead of reliance on a single question.
In 1942, during World War II, the Office of War Information established a
Surveys Division that conducted more than 100 studies of civilian knowledge,
attitudes, and expectations concerning wartime problems. During the same
period a U.S. Army research branch studied troop morale. These government
surveys utilized the specialized insights of sociologists, psychologists, political
scientists, anthropologists, and mathematical statisticians. The wartime
research programs contributed enormously both to an understanding of how
opinions are formed and changed and to the further development of
techniques of public opinion research.
Developments after World War II. In 1946, Harry Field, director of the
National Opinion Research Center, called a conference in Central City, Colo.,
attended by about 75 academicians, commercial researchers, and
government officials. They discussed the role of public opinion research in
local, national, and international affairs; problems of sampling, interviewing,
and questionnaire writing; and the reliability and validity of data. In 1947 the
American Association for Public Opinion Research was founded. The Public
Opinion Quarterly, begun by Princeton University in 1937, serves as the
association's journal.
Public opinion research suffered a setback when the forecasts of a victory for
the Republican presidential candidate, Thomas E. Dewey, were proved wrong
in 1948. A committee appointed by the Social Science Research Council
attributed the faulty result mainly to failure to catch the late trend toward
Pres. Harry Truman, to assess properly the intentions of the "undecided,"
and to estimate correctly the voting turnout.
After 1948 the polltakers worked on more reliable methods for estimating
turnout and took care to continue their soundings right up to election day.
The major polls have correctly predicted most of the election winners since
the 1950s and have generally been accurate when they estimated that
elections would be extremely close.
The availability and use of public opinion research have continued to expand.
Some sort of survey research facility now exists at almost every major
university in the United States with the capability of carrying out local or
statewide surveys. In every major city commercial research companies
conduct surveys for business, for government agencies, or for private
groups.
The proliferation of surveys has brought with it problems of quality and
standards. In a free market anyone can sell survey services, and price
competition usually ensures the adoption of minimum standards. Similarly,
there are no legal barriers to the widespread release of spurious survey data
based on poorly worded questions or biased samples. The problems are
regarded as serious because surveys are finally dependent on the willingness
of the general public to respond conscientiously to the polltaker's questions.
If sizable segments of the public come to believe that surveys are a sales or
propaganda device or an invasion of their privacy, the state of public opinion
could again be measured only indirectly.
Efforts to improve public understanding and to eliminate survey abuses are
being made by professional associations in the field of public opinion. They
have sought to educate legislators, editors, and business leaders about the
characteristics of an acceptable survey; encourage polltakers to be more
sensitive to the needs and interests of the people they interview; continue
development of a widely agreed-on set of survey standards and code of
professional ethics; and formulate and apply sanctions against researchers
found in violation of accepted principles.
See also Advertising; Propaganda; Public Relations.
Paul B. Sheatsley*
Senior Survey Director
National Opinion Research Center
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Our Social Skin
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