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Public Opinion
Types of publics
I.
Elites
A.
Those with disproportionate amount of political
resources
1.
a.
2.
3.
B.
C.
What is a political resource?
Raise issues and help set national agenda
Influence resolution of issues
Attentive: those with an active interest in
govt./politics
Mass: those with little interest in
govt./politics
Types of opinions
II.
Stable: change very little
A.
A.
Death penalty
Fluid: change frequently
B.
A.
President popularity (approval rating)
Latent: dormant, but may be aroused
C.
A.
Military draft
Salient: has personal importance to individuals
D.
A.
Brady and gun control
Consensus: shared by 75% of the people or more
E.
A.
Having a balanced budget
Polarized: shared by less than 75%
F.
A.
B.
Gun control
Gay marriage
Intensity: the strength of, or passion behind, an
opinion
G.
A.
People tend to have intense opinions on issues such as
abortion, gay rights and capital punishment
Measurement of public opinion
III.
A.
B.
Elections: deceiving – does not tell WHY
people voted as they did
Straw polls: unbinding, unofficial opinion
poll, used to predict outcome (elections,
support for a bill)
C.
Scientific polls
1.
Construction
a.
b.
c.
d.
Definition of universe (also called population):
population to be measured
Selection of sampling
1) Random sample: each person in the sample (the
smaller representative number actually polled) has
equal chance of being selected
2) Sampling error (errors in data due to the fact of
sampling) expressed in +/- numbers (+/-5%),
called margins of error. To achieve a margin of
error of +/-3%, must poll 1,000 people. 500-1,000
often used for political polls (cost prohibits lower
sampling errors)
3) The greater number of respondents, the lower the
margin of error
Selection of means (how will the data be gathered?)
1. Most popular: computer-generated phone list
Writing the question (avoiding bias)





Do you think there should be an amendment to the Constitution
prohibiting abortions, or shouldn't there be such an amendment?
 (29/67 should/shouldn’t)
Do you believe there should be an amendment to the
constitution protecting the life of the unborn child, or shouldn't
there be such an amendment?
 (50/39)
Are your opinions about abortion more in line with the pro-life
philosophy or the pro-abortion philosophy?
Do you think there should be a Constitutional amendment
removing the electoral college in order to prevent another sitting
president from stealing the election?
Do you want to stop the war in Iraq so the lives of innocent
civilians can be spared?
1.
2.
Do you believe that women have had a history in the
United States of oppression by the male power
structure?
Do believe women should have the right to decide for
themselves whether or not an abortion is right for
them?
Leading questions

Interpretation problems:

Do you support military action to unseat the Islamic
fundamentalist regime of Iran (Yes | No | Unsure)?

The raw data result may be: 29 percent support, 28
percent oppose, 43 percent unsure.

The correct conclusion: The public generally hasn't made
up its mind or needs more information.


However, a biased reporter may selectively draw from
the results and give the wrong impression as in the
following report:
“The idea of military action against Iran is increasingly
unpopular. A recent poll concluded that only 29 percent
support action.”
D.
E.
Push polls: political propaganda disguised as polls.
Automated phone calls asking for polling information
that then launches a political attack against an
opponent
Advocacy polls: legitimate polls that are, nonetheless,
inaccurate in that they tend to ignore damaging data,
and publicize only the collected data that supports
their cause
F.
Uses of polls
a.
b.
c.
d.
G.
Informing public
Informing candidates
Informing office-holders
Making election night projections through use of exit polls
Abuses of polls
a.
b.
c.
“Horse race” mentality emphasized during campaigns at expense
of issues
Pandering to whims of public by candidates and office-holders
Early projections from exit polls may discourage voter turnout,
esp. in West (“It’s already lost (or won), why bother!”)
a.
2000 Election demonstrated exit poll problems
b.
Early projections in Florida discouraged turnout in panhandle
c.
Flawed data led to flawed projections
d.
Network news declared Al Gore the victor, recanted, declared
Bush the winner, then recanted again, only to finally call the
election for Bush once again, making for a very confusing
night!
Public Awareness and interest in politics
IV.
Mass public pays little attention to politics
Surveys also show substantial lack of
political knowledge by the public
A.
B.
1.
2.
Cant identify public figures (Nancy Pelosi,
Barbara Boxer, Diane Feinstein)
Can’t identify key issues (in 1982, after years of
debate, 1/3 of adults indicated they had never
heard of ERA)
Questions
1.
2.
3.
4.
What is the difference between the
“attentive” and “mass” publics?
2. Explain a polarized opinion:
Explain the numbers behind this
comment: “It seems the public has
reached a consensus on healthcare
reform.”
How is a scientific poll conducted?