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MLC Global Share Fund MLC Annual Review June 2009 MLC Investment Management Level 12, 105 –153 Miller Street North Sydney NSW 2060 1 Important information This information has been provided by MLC Limited (ABN 90 000 000 402) a member of the National Group, 105-153 Miller Street, North Sydney 2060. This material was prepared for advisers only. Any advice in this communication has been prepared without taking account of individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on any information in this communication, consider whether it is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document relating to any financial product issued by MLC Investments Limited (ABN 30 002 641 661) and MLC Nominees Pty Ltd (ABN 93 002 814 959) as trustee of The Universal Super Scheme (ABN 44 928 361 101), and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document is available upon request by phoning the MLC call centre on 132 652 or on our website at mlc.com.au. An investment in any product offered by a member company of the National group does not represent a deposit with or a liability of the National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 or other member company of the National Australia Bank group of companies and is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss or income and capital invested. None of the National Australia Bank Limited, MLC Limited, MLC Investments Limited or other member company in the National Australia Bank group of companies guarantees the capital value, payment of income or performance of any financial product referred to in this publication. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment may rise or fall with the changes in the market. Please note that all return figures reported are before management fees and taxes, and for the period up to 30 June 2009, unless otherwise stated. The specialist investment management companies are current as at 30 June 2009. Funds under management figures are as at 30 June 2009, unless otherwise stated. Investment managers are regularly reviewed and may be appointed or removed at any time without prior notice to you. Page 2 Contents MLC Investment Management Team Recent Comments, Updates and Articles Market Overview Global Share Commentary Appendix: Table of Investment Manager Returns 5 6-8 9-12 13 Page 3 This review provides insights on the performance of the MLC Global Share Fund. It also provides an update on our recent research and publications with the latest views on investment issues and market events, and the activity the research team has undertaken on your behalf. Page 4 MLC Investment Management Team Recent Comments, Updates and Articles The recent financial market chaos and plunge in liquidity of credit assets has helped focus mainstream attention on the risk posed by exposure to illiquid assets. This is particularly relevant to many Australian Superannuation investors in Industry Super funds with a high degree of illiquid exposure (eg Direct property, Infrastructure and private equity). Over the past 12 months, MLC Investment Management has undertaken 529 manager meetings. The broad asset class breakdown of these manager meetings is outlined in the below chart. 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Ot he r De bt Ma rk e ts erg i ng Em l as s ali an Pr op er ty Au s tr as se tC nc y 0 Cu rre Amanda Heyes, MLC Investment Specialist, puts 'The Chaser' under the microscope and finds that the power of compound interest over long periods of time can have an incredible impact on your clients wealth. Manager meetings and reviews Mu l ti- A summarized client friendly commentary on the key drivers of performance for the range of MLC Multi-Manager funds over the year to June 2009 is on the client MarketWatch site. MLC Investment Management’s views and analysis on 7 year return potential for asset classes and the range of MLC’s diversified portfolios has been updated to reflect end June 2009 market valuations. Don't forget to have a look at the Marketwatch site for an update on the impacts of the financial crisis and economic downturn on recent income distributions for the MLC MasterKey Investment Trust, Unit Trust and Investment Service and helping clients through tough times. Sh ar es ali an Sh ar es G lo ba lP ro pe rty A fully scripted ‘Performance Preview Pack’ for the year ended 30 June 2009 to help facilitate more meaningful client conversations around fund performance in challenging market environments, The pack “lifts the lid” on the key drivers of the current economic environment, how this has affected investment markets and what this means for your clients. The Lottery Effect of Volatility – MLC does not believe volatility should be seen as the definitive measure of risk. Risk, to clients, is the likelihood they will not achieve their financial objectives. However, the dispersion of returns (volatility) does impact whether clients achieve their financial objectives. This paper examines the contribution the dispersion of returns has on outcomes. Kerry Napper, MLC's Capital Markets Research Analyst, looks at what history can tell us about the effect of banking crises on developed and emerging economies. G lo ba l Some of our recent updates include: MLC has always taken the issue of liquidity and equitable pricing seriously, to ensure we provide our investors with daily access to their unit linked funds. To ensure we can provide this access, MLC has a formal approach to the assessment of liquidity and equitable pricing. For more information on this issue please refer to MLC’s White Paper entitled: ”Liquidity and Equitable Unit Pricing – March 2009”. Au s tr Your investment specialists regularly produce commentary and articles on topical investment issues. These are available on mlc.com.au Traditional portfolio construction approaches have been under intense scrutiny throughout the recent financial crisis. In his article - The do's and don'ts of portfolio construction, John Owen, Senior Investment Specialist for Australian shares and global property provides some insights on how NOT to make the same mistakes. Page 5 Market overview Comments by Brian Parker Investment returns over the past 12 months were very poor, with the typical balanced fund likely to have posted a -11% return for the year. REIT and share markets were the main culprits, while Government bonds posted solid returns as investors continued to seek safety, and the world’s central banks drove official interest rates down to unprecedented levels. Within the bond universe, the dispersion of returns among the various subclasses was truly remarkable. While Government nominal bonds in the developed markets performed well, every other debt securities sub-class performed poorly in the December 2008 quarter. Corporate bond spreads widened dramatically, particularly after the failure of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers in mid-September 2008. Deflation fears meant that markets had little interest in inflation protection, and consequently inflation protected securities also performed extremely poorly. However the unbridled pessimism that characterised market sentiment in late 2008 abated during 2009, and markets became less pessimistic about the outlook for the global economy. The functioning of world money and credit markets has progressively normalised. The result has been sharply higher share prices, higher commodity prices, much tighter credit spreads and higher Government bond yields. Economic conditions in the world economy deteriorated over the course of the year. All the world’s major developed economies are now firmly ensconced in recession. In the case of Japan and the UK, the recession is as severe as any in living memory. Aust bonds Global bonds Cash Global shares (unhedged) Aust shares Aust REITs Global REITs (AUD hedged) -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Returns (%) for year to end-June 2009 The chart shows both the steep declines in Australian and world share prices during the last half of 2008, and also the solid recovery that has occurred since early March 2009 in the case of the developed markets and October 2008 in the case of emerging share markets. Selected share price indices 110 End-June 2008 equals 100 100 90 80 70 60 Source: MSCI, Datastream 50 40 30 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Australia Developed markets Here in Australia, economic growth has slowed to a crawl over the past year, and the economy has almost certainly fallen into recession, despite the fact that economic data released in recent months have tended to surprise on the upside. Retail spending seems to have been supported by the Government’s cash hand-outs. Housing finance has picked up – particularly for new housing construction – spurred on by extremely low interest rates, and the Government’s grants to first home buyers. However, we have yet to see the full effect of the global recession on exports or business investment. Mar-09 Jun-09 Emerging markets Moreover, every leading indicator of employment is pointing to sharply higher unemployment rates over the coming year. Hopes that the major emerging market economies of China and India could sail through this crisis relatively unscathed appear to have been dashed. Chinese growth in particular slowed significantly – industrial output growth fell to its slowest pace in a decade. However, more recent data out of China suggest that some pickup in growth may be underway. Page 6 Trade and production data in some of the world’s most trade dependant economies – including Japan, nonJapan Asia, and Germany – have been notably worse than elsewhere in the last few months. Much of this weakness appears to reflect the collapse of trade finance activity, and indeed world trade, in the wake of the Lehman Brothers failure (see charts below). There remains considerable debate as to whether the Lehman Brothers failure represents an unavoidable consequence of the financial crisis or a policy blunder. We lean towards the latter interpretation. The chart shows industrial output in highly trade dependant economies: The chart shows industrial output in less trade dependant economies: In March 2008, another US investment bank, Bear Sterns, was facing failure, and because of the institution’s pivotal role in the US and global financial system, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve engineered a bail-out of the institution by JP Morgan, under which the business of Bear Sterns was absorbed into JP Morgan, and the troubled assets of the institution were taken on and guaranteed by the Federal Reserve. In the wake of that operation, market participants felt that the rules of the game were reasonably clear: viz, any institution that occupied such a pivotal position in the system would have the support of US Treasury and Federal Reserve if it faced difficulties. As a consequence, market participants felt relatively confident in acquiring the short-term debt obligation of such entities, continuing to utilise them as counterparties for a range of transactions, and holding their equity. By allowing Lehman to fail, the rules of the game appeared to collapse, and with it, confidence in the system. The failure of Lehman Brothers followed a period where key US institutions such as the investment bank Merrill Lynch, the world’s largest insurer AIG, and key US mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been taken over, nationalised, or sent into bankruptcy. Institutions in the UK and Europe have faced similar difficulties. It is now clear that during the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers failure, the world financial markets and economy stood on the edge of an abyss. Flows of credit that are the lifeblood of the world economy in many cases ceased. For exporters and importers, trade finance was extremely difficult to obtain. Corporate debt markets became dysfunctional, and in the case of high yield securities, there was no market to speak of. Interbank lending markets were severely restricted, and cost of funding for the world’s banks soared. In response, the world’s monetary authorities stepped up their injections of liquidity and asset purchases. Later in the year, further capital injections were made into US banks by the US Treasury, and by year’s end, the major US car makers were in line for emergency funding from the same program that had been set-up to aid troubled financial institutions. President Obama’s much anticipated $789 billion stimulus package passed through the US Congress in February. Additionally, a $275 billion housing plan aimed at preventing foreclosures and attempting to stabilise the housing sector was introduced. During the past year, policymakers have continued to take steps to address this crisis that are unprecedented in both their nature and scope. Fiscal policy measures have been taken in many countries, including here in Australia. The world’s central banks have reduced official interest rates aggressively, and injected huge amounts of liquidity into the financial system in a bid to get money and credit markets working again. These efforts are critical, because in the absence of properly functioning markets for credit, and financial institutions willing to lend, traditional monetary policy is close to impotent, and generating a sustainable recovery in private demand will be close to impossible. At the time of writing, conditions in money and credit markets have continued to improve, although they have yet to return to anything that might be described as normal trading conditions. Share prices, while still sharply higher than their recent lows, have fallen across the globe. While there has been some improvement evident in the economic data released across the world so far this year, the recession is far from over. Share markets seem to have gotten ahead of themselves in the latter stages of the financial year, and consequently, their partial retreat appears entirely justified. Page 7 At MLC, we spend a good deal of time assessing the medium to longer-term outlook for economies and investment returns. Before this rally began in early March, prospective investment returns for domestic and global shares, and for non-Government securities looked very favourable – significantly higher than historical averages. Given the size and speed of the recovery so far, those prospective returns have come down sharply, but are still reasonably favourable. In the short term, we believe the pathway towards sustainable recovery – both in the economy and investment returns – remains highly uncertain. What kind of news would we need to hear, what questions need to be answered and what developments would we like to see in order to become more optimistic? Here is a list, but by no means an exhaustive one. So far, the loan and securities losses faced by banks and other financial institutions have mostly been related to the US housing market collapse. Just how bad will the non-housing credit losses be in this recession, and do the banks have enough capital to cushion against those losses? The US Federal Reserve suggests that the major US banks need to raise relatively little capital to provide that cushion. For our part, we think US banks need to raise considerably more capital than the $75 billion or so identified by the Fed. In the US and elsewhere in the English speaking world, households have increased their saving. In Australia, this has been achieved (so far) with very little weakness in consumer spending, but the US and UK have not been so lucky, and consumer spending in those economies has fallen sharply. Sharply lower household wealth has triggered higher rates of saving – a reversal of the trend of the past decade or more. It remains unclear how far this trend has to go – we have no way of knowing in advance just how high the saving rate will need to rise in these economies (and hence how weak, and for how long, consumer spending will be). While the problems in the world’s banking system have restrained the supply of credit, the demand for credit from the private sector has been very weak. We need to see signs of a pick-up in credit demand. Just when will the private sector’s appetite for credit improve – not the kind of voracious, unsustainable appetite for credit that led the world to financial obesity, just normal, garden variety demands for credit for home building and business investment? Thankfully for world bond markets, this lack of appetite for debt has allowed Governments to have the field all to themselves when it comes to borrowing money. Even after their recent sell-off, long bond rates are still very low historically. At some point however, the competition for funds between Governments and a resurgent private sector is likely to be problematic for bond markets. At the end of the day, the share market is a snapshot of the businesses that comprise the economy. Over time, those businesses profit from meeting the needs of their customers, pay dividends, and reinvest in order to grow. Share markets mostly reflect that reality. Extended periods where share markets fail to deliver are rare, but they have happened. Consequently, not everybody can or should have all their eggs in the basket labelled ‘shares’. Our best defence against not knowing the unknowable is to diversify our investments as widely as possible, take enough risk in our portfolios to enable us to meet our clients’ return objectives and, to as much as possible, fully understand the risks attached to every investment we make. Page 8 Global Share Commentary Executive Summary: It has been a remarkable and challenging year for global share investors. Despair has given way to muted signs of stabilisation. The reaction of markets since it reached its low on March 9 has been remarkable with a significant rebound in perhaps the component perceived to be the riskiest in the market – financials. The rally was mostly felt in Emerging markets which leapt ahead with increasing investor risk appetites. We suspect macroeconomic news will continue to surprise on the downside in the developed world. Positive earnings news and a continued rally would be inextricably linked to a pick up in the four key variables most integral to the economy's performance: employment, production, personal income, and sales. Your MLC Global Share strategy returned -19.6% underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) which returned -15.6% for the year. Your strategy underperformed due to the drag caused by companies bought by two managers –Bernstein and Alliance. These managers were terminated during the strategy enhancement implemented in March 2009. The four new managers (Sands Capital, Harding Loevner, Tweedy Browne and Mondrian) are performing the roles they were appointed to fulfil, although it is too early to comment on their market relative performance. Overall, returns from both old and new managers remained mixed. The table outlines performance of MLC Global Share Strategy Performance Overview to 30 June 2009 5 years 3 years 1 years 3 Months MLC Global Share Strategy, Gross -2.1% pa -10.5% pa -19.6% 5.7% MSCI All Countries World Index -1.4% pa -9.1% pa -15.6% 5.3% MLC Wholesale Global Share Fund, Net -3.1%pa -11.0%pa -19.3% 6.1% Median (Mercer IDPS – Global Shares) -2.7% pa -10.9% pa -19.2% 5.6% Quartile Ranking (Mercer IDPS Global Share) 3rd 3rd 2nd 2nd Percentage of time above Median (IDPS universe, since inception) 38 27 43 N/Av Note: Inception is February 1998. Given the sharply divergent sector returns for the year, it was interesting to see that selections in capital goods, consumer services and information technology added value to your portfolio. Notable detractors were from materials, energy and food sectors. The global share strategy is expected to outperform the MSCI All Countries World Index over rolling 5 year periods. However, as we are focused on growing your wealth, we won’t chase risky returns when markets are very strong which means we are likely to underperform in strong markets. At other times, and particularly when markets are weak, we expect to outperform the market. Page 9 Notwithstanding the recent dip in performance, the strategy has consistently outperformed the market benchmark over most periods (as can be seen above). The last decade was host to two of the worst asset bubbles, and encapsulated narrowly lead markets for significant periods. Such markets make it difficult to show value in active stock selection, as good stock selections aren’t rewarded above how the ordinary market performs. 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 3 Year Rolling Excess Return Jun-09 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-02 1 Year Rolling Excess Return Dec-02 Dec-01 Jun-01 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-99 -20.0 Dec-99 Disappointingly, while index relative returns have historically been quite strong, they have recently fallen below market, as illustrated in the graph below which shows rolling 1, 3 and 5 year market relative returns. This is especially the case given recent poor markets, a time when we would expect to outperform. The recent performance drag was driven by sector selections in 2008 by Bernstein and Alliance. The quantum of underperformance which saw your portfolio decline in value over the next year, should take some time recover. % in excess of index* Market Relative Returns The graph outlines the rolling excess returns of the MLC Global Share Strategy to 30 June 2009. 5 Year Rolling Excess Return *The index for your strategy is the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), which includes both developed and emerging markets. However, it was the MSCI World Index (developed markets) prior to September 2002. Your Managers In what has been a difficult time for managers, their performance continues to vary. Of the managers who are continuing in the strategy after the recent changes: Dimensional enjoyed a reversal of fortunes during the rally of 2Q09, which was driven primarily by the riskier, deep value and growth oriented segments of the market. The Emerging markets mandate with Dimensional continued to add value through participation in the emerging markets rally. These two events lead to their performance being almost on par with the index. Walter Scott continues to impress for the year. They did however give back some of the gains during the latest market rally, which favored the more risky parts of the market at the expense of quality companies. Wellington lost out on their calls on the Materials sector, although they too enjoyed a reversal of fortunes through bottom-up stock selection during the rally of 2Q09. Capital International detracted from your portfolio due to calls in a few sectors including materials. At a stock level, Potash, which has been a winner for the previous few years, had their share price halved during the broad market sell off in 2008. Page 10 A summary of your appointed managers is in the table. Manager Tailored mandate? Style Key role in strategy Capital International 130 stock portfolio with a mid-large cap GARP bias New (MLC seed investor) Through the cycle performance Materials and Consumer staples hurt at a sector level. Potash and Nintendo were the key stock detractors. Dimensional Harding Loevner Mondrian Sands Capital Tweedy, Browne Walter Scott Wellington Management Key performance points 500 stock portfolio with a small-mid cap deep value bias Tailored Volatile market relative performance Deep value style was back in favour 2Q09, which helped performance almost match the benchmark. Outperforming in emerging markets continued. 50 stock portfolio with a mid-large cap quality growth bias No Volatile market relative performance New to strategy 90-100 stock portfolio with a large cap value (dividend) bias No Capital preservation New to strategy 25-50 stock portfolio with a mid-large cap secular growth bias New (MLC seed investor) Upside participation New to strategy 30-50 stock portfolio with a mid-large cap value bias Tailored Capital preservation New to strategy 50 stock portfolio with a small-mid cap real return bias No Capital preservation Focus on quality companies with low debt levels 50 stock portfolio with a mid-large cap GARP bias New (MLC was seed investor) Upside participation Scaled back materials and positioned defensively in Q109 * These are our judgements and the actual outcomes may differ to this. It is difficult to explain the role of any manager in a few words. Details of overall expectations were discussed in our Strategy Enhancement document. Page 11 2% Wellington Management Walter Scott Tweedy Browne, Company Sands Capital Mondrian -4% Harding Loevner Dimensional 0% -2% -6% -8% 5 year 3 year 1 year The two graphs below show global sector excess returns. Excess Return vs. MSCI All Country Word Index (Unhedged) - July 1, 2008 to March 9, 2009 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Utilities Information Technology Financials Health Care Telecommunication Services -10.0% Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Industrials 0.0% -5.0% -15.0% Excess Return vs. MSCI All Country Word Index (Unhedged) - March 10, 2009 to June 30, 2009 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Utilities Information Technology Financials Health Care Telecommunication Services -15.0% Consumer Staples -10.0% Consumer Discretionary 0.0% -5.0% Industrials Potash Corporation (a fertilizer-maker based in Canada) was the largest detractor of value. Gazprom (the world’s largest natural gas extractor based in Russia) and Xstrata (a diversified mining group) also detracted, as commodity prices tumbled along with other assets during the year. 4% Materials The key contributors to performance continue to include Genentech (considered the pioneers of biotechnology) and General Electric (a large diversified industrial group based in the US). Las Vegas Sands, a casino resort company also contributed positively. The importance of you having access to emerging market companies were shown in the contribution BM&F Bovespa in Brazil, which is one of the largest stock exchanges in the world, made to your returns. 6% Materials Stock level 8% Capital International Your portfolio too managed to participate in the rally. Your sector attribution was driven by the managers who are part of your portfolio and the way they are blended. Sands, a new appointee participated in the rally exactly as we anticipated them to, with returns driven from many sectors in the final quarter. Capital goods, consumer services along with technology hardware & equipment sub sectors contributed the most towards your returns for the year. Energy, materials and banks were amongst the leading detractors of value from your portfolio. 10% Energy But there was marked increase in risk appetites with financials making a significant comeback since 10 March to 30 June 2009, as shown in the bottom graph to the right. 12% Energy Global sector returns had two marked sessions. The first to March 9, 2009 was dominated by defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples, as shown in the middle graph to the right. The managers’ performance compared to market benchmark (many of which have not been in the portfolio for 1 or 5 years), is illustrated in the graph (to 30 June 2009. Excess Returns (%) Sector and Regional exposures -20.0% Page 12 Appendix: Table of Investment Manager Returns Investment Manager 15 year % pa 10 year % pa 7 year % pa 5 year % pa 3 year % pa 1 year 3 months Gross Total Returns for periods ended 30 June 2009 Global Share Managers Capital - ACWI mandate 7.37 0.12 -1.02 -1.23 1.99 Capital Emerging Markets n/a 7.77 11.11 Wellington n/a n/a n/a Walter Scott n/a n/a Harding Loevner n/a Sands Capital -8.53 -19.08 13.31 3.33 -10.25 15.00 n/a -10.21 -21.93 5.79 n/a n/a -4.11 -4.06 1.40 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.62 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 16.45 Mondrian n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.12 Tweedy Browne n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.07 DFA - Composite n/a n/a n/a n/a -9.75 -15.57 13.99 Note all total returns quoted above are before the deduction of fees & taxes and are to periods ended 30 June 2009. Page 13 MLC Investment Management For more information call MLC on 132 652 8am-6pm EST Monday to Friday, or contact your financial adviser. For details on MLC’s range of products and services visit our website mlc.com.au Page 14