Download Gridded Spring Forecast Maps for Natural Resource Planning Alyssa Rosemartin

Gridded Spring Forecast Maps
for Natural Resource Planning
Alyssa Rosemartin
Partner and Application Specialist
USA National Phenology Network
National Coordinating Office
What’s Phenology
Phenology refers to recurring plant and animal life cycle
stages, such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural
plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. It is also
the study of these seasonal changes, especially their timing
and relationships with weather and climate.
USA National Phenology Network
Primary goals
UNDERSTAND HOW SPECIES
AND LANDSCAPES ARE
• Advance the science of
phenology
• Support the use of phenological
information in decision-making
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE
CHANGE.
What We Do
• Make phenology data, models
and related information available.
• Encourage people of all ages
and backgrounds to observe
phenology.
Photo credit: C. Enquist
• Standard protocols
• Web & mobile apps
• Tools for download and
visualization, with climate data
• Campaigns
• Quality Assurance/Quality
Control
• Published science and
management applications
published
Total phenology records
(Jan 2009 – Feb 2016)
Data product development
historical
Gridded historic and forecast
products
• Leverage existing climate data sets to answer
phenologically-relevant questions, for a given
region of interest:
• Is this year warming up (is heat accumulating)
faster or slower than usual?
• With a Spring Index model, we can ask
• Has the timing of spring been changing?
• Is the timing of spring getting more variable?
• Is this spring earlier or later than usual?
Accumulated Growing Degree Day
(AGDD) - Forecast
Forecast for 3/26/2016
Last updated: 3/20/2016
Base: 32
Scale: 2.5 Km
Source: URMA/RTMA
Start Date: Jan 1
Example Application of AGDD map
Accumulated temperature (GDD)
Mobilizing to protect nut trees in
Arizona: Nut growers want advance
warning of potentially harmful frosts,
but only when their trees in vulnerable
condition.
Frozen pecan bud
More risk of frost damage
Budburst
No risk of frost
damage
Jan 1
Time
Image: northernpecans.blogspot.com
AGDD Forecast Anomaly
900 AGDD cooler than normal
No difference
Forecast for 3/26/2016
Last updated: 3/20/2016
Scale: 2.5 Km (PRISM bilinearly interpolated down)
Source: URMA/RTMA and PRISM
900 AGDD warmer than normal
Extended Spring Indices (SI-x)
Heat
accumulation
First
leaf
date
First leaf
date
First leaf and first
bloom dates are
average of cloned
and common lilac,
and two species of
honeysuckle.
Synoptic
events
More
heat
Schwartz 1997
Schwartz et al 2006
More
synoptic
events
First bloom
date
SI-x as a climate change indicator
data.globalchange.gov/report/indicator-start-of-spring
Historical Annual Spring Indices
Phenometric: First Leaf Date
Date range: 1981-2015
Scale: 4KM
Source: PRISM
Day of Year
SI-x First Leaf Forecast
Forecast for 3/26/2016
Last updated: 3/20/2016
Scale: 2.5 Km
Source: URMA/RTMA and PRISM
Day of Year
Forecast Leaf Anomaly
Forecast for 3/26/2016
Last updated: 3/20/2016
Scale: 2.5 Km
Source: URMA/RTMA and PRISM
Applications
- Lead time to look out for:
- Potential for mismatch between
interacting species
- Potential impacts to species that visitors
focus on (eg, cherry blooms)
- An unusually early and
warm spring can mean a
more intense fire season.
- Catching phenophases of interest
- Rare plant monitoring and seed collection
Spring advancing at NPS Units
Phenometric: First Leaf and First Bloom Indices
Date range: 1901-2012
Scale: 1 decimal degree
Source: Berkeley Earth
Monahan et al. in review.
Uncertainty and Error
• All products are available, as ‘provisional’ this year.
• Ongoing exploration and documentation of potential
issues related to:
• Source data products, and integration of products
• Spring index models
• Working with partners on pilot applications to assess
product utility
• Conducting some product inter-comparisons
Comparison to Climate Ref Network
Last Updated: 2/19/2016
Year: 2016
Mean Absolute Error: 41.12 AGDD
Source: RTMA/URMA and Climate Reference Network
Implementation
• USA-NPN Phenology
Visualization Tool (April)
usanpn.org/data/visualizations
• Geoserver
– Web Mapping Service – generates images and
animations, format examples (PNG, GeoTIFF,
OpenLayers, KML)
– Web Coverage Service – generates files for
analysis (with GIS products and R), format
example (GML, XML, GeoTIF, NetCDF)
Future possibilities
2050
SI-x
projections
2080
CESM RCP 8.5
CESM RCP 8.5
Ault et al. in prep.
Future possibilities
Land Surface Phenology Start of Spring (SOS) data products, for
the NCA Indicator system (NASA Funded)
2001–2013 mean SOS day
of year and 2010 SOS
anomalies at 500-m spatial
resolution
2010 anomalies for
states and NCA regions
Magnitude and
statistical significance
in SOS trends for states
and NCA regions
Grey et al, BU and NC State
Future possibilities
Damage Index Mock Up
Number of days by which leaf out precedes
average last freeze date.
Number of days by which leaf out
follows average last freeze date.
Connect with USA-NPN…
• Explore gridded products
www.usanpn.org/data/spr
ing
• Check out phenology
data and sign up for
researcher newsletter:
www.usanpn.org/data/ov
erview
• Partner with us:
www.usanpn.org/partner
Alyssa Rosemartin
[email protected]
Extra slides
RTMA/URMA vs PRISM
Year: 2015
Source: RTMA/URMA and PRISM
Spring advancing at NPS Units
First Leaf
First Bloom
Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve
(with 30 km buffer), Kansas, USA
Monahan et al. in prep.
Comparison to Station-based SI-x
Year: 2015
Source: PRISM and Mark D. Schwartz Unpublished Data
Recap – AGDD and SI-x Products
Both tell you something about how this spring compares to prior springs, trends over
time, and what will happen near term.
Accumulated Heat
Accumulated GDD value for each day of
year
Info about spring before thresholds are met.
If you know the GDD required for
species/phenophase of interest; you can
use this as a data source to predict it
Spring Indices
Leaf out date each year
Bloom date each year
Synthesis of biologically relevant climate
information
Facilitates comparisons across years in
timing of spring
Applications of Phenology Data
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Resource management
Conservation
Agriculture
Ecosystem services
Science
Health
Decision-support tools for
human adaptation to climate
change