Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Project BudBurstSM Plant Phenology and Climate Change Part I – Background on Phenology: 1. Begin by reading the Project BudBurstSM website on plant phenology and climate change (neoninc.org/budburst/phenology_climatechange.php) Answer the following questions as you read this page: a. What will happen to the weather we experience during winter and summer as climate change progresses? b. The global temperature is expected to rise 3.2 to 7.20 F during the 21st century. Yet, when you really think about it, this increase may not seem to be that big of a temperature difference. Why will 7.20 or even 3.20 F be such an enormous problem even though the number doesn’t seem all that big? c. Give a definition of phenophases in your own words: d. What factors affect phenophases? e. In the space below, explain how climate change could have an impact of phenophases. Be as detailed as you can be in your explanation. Part II – Using Phenology Data: 2. The following is a table from the Project BudBurstSM 2007-2011 phenology data Summary Report. Use the table to answer the following questions: ©National Ecological Observatory Network a. Between 2008 and 2010, what happened to the date on which the first Forsythia plant blooms opened in Chicago, IL? b. Considering Chicago for just this specific time period, develop a hypothesis as to why the dates for first bloom changed the way they did. c. Between 2008 and 2010, the Mertensia virginica plants appeared to bloom in a similar pattern in Stillwater, MN (Go Ponies!) as seen in the Forsythia plants in Chicago. What happened to this pattern in Mertensia virginica 2011? Part III – Weather, Climate, and Phenology Data: 3. The following three images show January through March Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) for the 2011 winter. The PDSI attempts to measure the duration and intensity of the long-term drought-inducing circulation patterns. Long-term drought is cumulative, so the intensity of drought during the current month is dependent on the current weather patterns plus the cumulative patterns of previous months. a. Using these images and the phenology data summary report from the previous page, formulate a hypothesis as to why Stillwater, MN saw a reversal in phenophase patterns in 2011. b. Floyd Swink and Gerould Wilhelm recorded first flowering dates of common plants in Chicago from 1955 to 1994 while botanizing the region to collect information for their book, Plants of the Chicago Region. Comparing this information to ProjectBudBurst℠ data (2007-2011 avg.) reveals that Forsythia plants bloomed 24 days earlier since the Swink/Wilhelm average. Yet Forsythia were seen to bloom 9 days later in 2011 than in 2010 and 7 days later than in 2007. Thinking about what you know about climate and phenology data, develop a hypothesis regarding annual bloom dates that fits with the data that you have been given in this activity.