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International Finance FINA 5331 Lecture 5 History of Monetary Institutions Read: Chapters 2 & 3 Aaron Smallwood Ph.D. Additionally • What exchange rate systems exist today? – The choice between a fixed system and a flexible system. • How does another country’s exchange rate system affect you? How does China’s changing exchange rate system affect you? • What are currency crises and how can they impact your business? • What is the euro? Will the euro-zone expand? How does expansion of the euro-zone affect you? Interwar Period: 1918-1941 • Exchange rates fluctuated as countries widely used “predatory” depreciations of their currencies as a means of gaining advantage in the world export market. • Attempts were made to restore the gold standard, but participants lacked the political will to “follow the rules of the game”. • The result for international trade and investment was profoundly detrimental. • Smoot-Hawley tariffs • Great Depression Economic Performance and Degree of Exchange Rate Depreciation During the Great Depression Bretton Woods System: 1945-1971 • Named for a 1944 meeting of 44 nations at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. • The purpose was to design a postwar international monetary system. • The goal was exchange rate stability without the gold standard. • The result was the creation of the IMF and the World Bank. Bretton Woods System: 1945-1971 • Under the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce and other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar. • Each country was responsible for maintaining its exchange rate within ±1% of the adopted par value by buying or selling foreign reserves as necessary. • The U.S. was only responsible for maintaining the gold parity. • Under Bretton Woods, the IMF was created. • The Bretton Woods is also known as an adjustable peg system. When facing serious balance of payments problems, countries could re-value their exchange rate. The US and Japan are the only countries to never re-value. The Fixed-Rate Dollar Standard, 1945-1971 • In practice, the Bretton Woods system evolved into a fixed-rate dollar standard. Industrial countries other than the United States : Fix an official par value for domestic currency in terms of the US$, and keep the exchange rate within 1% of this par value indefinitely. United States : Remain passive in the foreign change market; practice free trade without a balance of payments or exchange rate target. Bretton Woods System: 1945-1971 British pound German mark French franc Par Value U.S. dollar Pegged at $35/oz. Gold Purpose of the IMF The IMF was created to facilitate the orderly adjustment of Balance of Payments among member countries by: • encouraging stability of exchange rates, • avoidance of competitive devaluations, and • providing short-term liquidity through loan facilities to member countries Composition of SDR (Special Drawing Right) Collapse of Bretton Woods • Triffin paradox – world demand for $ requires U.S. to run persistent balance-of-payments deficits that ultimately leads to loss of confidence in the $. • SDR was created to relieve the $ shortage. • Throughout the 1960s countries with large $ reserves began buying gold from the U.S. in increasing quantities threatening the gold reserves of the U.S. • Large U.S. budget deficits and high money growth created exchange rate imbalances that could not be sustained, i.e. the $ was overvalued and the DM and £ were undervalued. • Several attempts were made at re-alignment but eventually the run on U.S. gold supplies prompted the suspension of convertibility in September 1971. • Smithsonian Agreement – December 1971 The Floating-Rate Dollar Standard, 1973-1984 • Without an agreement on who would set the common monetary policy and how it would be set, a floating exchange rate system provided the only alternative to the Bretton Woods system. The Floating-Rate Dollar Standard, 1973-1984 Industrial countries other than the United States : Smooth short-term variability in the dollar exchange rate, but do not commit to an official par value or to long-term exchange rate stability. United States : Remain passive in the foreign exchange market; practice free trade without a balance of payments or exchange rate target. No need for sizable official foreign exchange reserves. The Plaza-Louvre Intervention Accords and the Floating-Rate Dollar Standard, 1985-1999 • Plaza Accord (1985): – Allow the dollar to depreciate following massive appreciation…announced that intervention may be used. • Louvre Accord (1987) and “Managed Floating” – G-7 countries will cooperate to achieve exchange rate stability. – G-7 countries agree to meet and closely monitor macroeconomic policies. Value of $ since 1965 IMF Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes • • • • • Independent floating Managed floating Exchange rate systems with crawling bands Crawling peg systems Pegged exchange rate systems within horizontal bands • Conventional pegs • Currency board • Exchange rate systems with no separate legal tender