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Chapter 3 Levels of Analysis And Foreign Policy Individual-Level Analysis • Begins with view that the root it is people who make policy • Involves understanding the human-decision marking process (psychology) • Groupthink, Individual decisions, etc. • Political Science and Psychology and Sociology The Human Condition • How do humans affect policy? 1. Cognitive decision making: making decisions within the constraints of bounded rationality, first level of individual-level analysis 2. External boundaries (missing data, incorrect data) may affect decisions 3. Internal boundaries (limited physical and mental capabilities) also play a role Decision Making • Seek Cognitive Consistency • Wishful Thinking—We will succeed (regardless of improbability) • Heuristic Devices – a range of psychological strategies that allow people to simplify complex decisions. Examples: stereotypes, analolgies Decision Making Emotional Factors • Leaders are human too Biological Factors • Ethology/Animal Instincts • Socialization • Intellect Decision Making Gender • Social construct developed by socialization process • Gender opinion gap Organizational Behavior • Second approach to individual-level analysis • People act differently depending on different settings • Roles based on self-expectations and external expectations • Groupthink Leaders and Idiosyncratic Analysis • Third approach to individual • Idiosyncratic Analysis:– level analysis; study of humans as individuals and how each leader’s personal (idiosyncratic) characteristics help shape his or her decisions • How do personal traits affect decisions? Leaders 1. Personality • Orientations toward self and others • Active-Passive and Positive- Negative Scale (Active-Negative worst—example, Nixon) 2. Physical and Mental Health 3. Personality and Ambition 4. Political History 5. Personal Experience Rational & Irrational Factors • Decisions are usually a mix of rational and irrational factors • Poliheuristic Theory: Considers decision making to be a two stage process 1. During 1st stage, leaders use shortcuts to eliminate policy options, usually for irrational personal reasons 2. 2nd stage a more analytic process State-Level Analysis • Emphasizes the characteristics of states and how they make foreign policy choices and implement them 1. Government Structure 2. Interest Groups 3. Leaders 4. Political Forces Types of Governments • Type of government affects policy decision (authoritarian, democratic, etc) • Crisis vs. Noncrisis situation (rally cry) Type of Policy • Type of policy can vary depending on the issue area • Intermestic Policy: Foreign policy that has an immediate and direct domestic impact • Pure foreign policy: issues that have little to no obvious impact on citizens Political Culture • Concept that refers to a society’s general, long-held, and fundamental practices and attitudes. These are based on a country’s historical experiences and on the values (norms) of its citizens. These attitudes are often an important part of how policy is made. Who makes Foreign Policy? • • • • • • Political executives Bureaucracies Legislative bodies Political Opponents Interest Groups The Citizens System-Level Analysis • All systems have identifiable characteristics 1. How Authority is Organized 2. Scope and Level of Interaction among actors in the system Organization of Authority • Vertical Authority Structure: Subordinate unites are substantially regulated by higher levels of authority • Horizontal Authority Structure: Few , if any, higher authorities in such systems; powers fragmented World stage is mostly horizontal Organization of Authority • State-centric system: anarchic, no overarching authority • Anarchic nature greatly influences policy • Range, frequency and intensity of interactions between nations affect decisions Power Relationships • • • • Reality of the system Power Poles Unipolar system Power and Situation Economic Realities • Shape policy • Natural Resource Production • Consumption pattersn Norms • Nuking not acceptable • Diversity = differences