Download The role of CCS as a climate change

The role of CCS as a climate change
mitigation option,
Energy
gy technology
gy p
perspectives
p
John Gale
General Manager
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
Public Power Corporation Seminar on CCS
Athens, Greece – June 24th 2008
www.ieagreen.org.uk
Introduction
• Climate change is it happening?
• The impacts of climate change
• The role of CCS in climate change mitigation
• WEO 2007,
2007 IPCC AR4 and Stern Report
• Update on Energy Technology Perspectives
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Climate change is it real?
• There is an accepted body of scientific
knowledge
o edge that
a indicates
d ca es cclimate
a e cchange
a ge is
s
happening
• IPCC Assessment Reports
p
• There is consensus among NGO’s that it is real
• There is no real consensus among NGO’s
NGO s
consensus on how to deal with it
• There is a growing consensus that the need for
action is becoming urgent
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IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)
•
•
•
“There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate
change mitigation policies and related sustainable development
practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few
decades.
The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, 2000) projects an
increase of global GHG emissions by 25-90% (CO2-eq) between 2000 and
2030 with fossil fuels maintaining their dominant position in the global energy
2030,
mix to 2030 and beyond.
Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further
warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during
the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed
during the 20th century .”
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Predicted Future Global Warming
•Global Temperature
•Global CO2 Emissions
•Source: IPCC 2007
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5
Predicted Surface Temperatures
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STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change
(already at about 430 ppm CO2e – all GHG
GHG, not just CO2)
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Risks from Climate Change
•
Source:
2, April 2007
Parry (2001), and IPCC WG
• Water shortages
g harm up
p to
250 million in Africa by 2020
• Certain agriculture yields in
Africa may fall 50% by 2050
• Decreased availability of fresh
water in Asia might effect more
th a billion
than
billi people
l b
by 2050
2050.
• Some areas of Europe are
projected to lose up to 60% of
their species by 2080.
• The Americas will see reduced
snowpacks, leading to water
supply problems by 2020
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Predicted Future Global Warming
Characteristics of stabilization scenarios
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
eq)
Global mean
temp. increase
q
at equilibrium
(ºC)
Year CO2
needs to peak
Year CO2
emissions
back at 2000
l
level
l
Reduction in 2050
CO2 emissions
compared to 2000
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 - 2015
2000- 2030
-85 to -50
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 - 2020
2000- 2040
-60 to -30
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 - 2030
2020- 2060
-30 to +5
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 - 2060
2050- 2100
+10 to +60
710 – 855
4.0 – 4.9
2050 - 2080
+25
25 to +85
85
855 – 1130
4.9 – 6.1
2060 - 2090
+90 to +140
Mitigation efforts over the next 2-3
2 3 decades will have a large impact on
opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels
Source: IPCC 2007
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Role of CCS in climate change mitigation?
• IPCC Special Report (2005) – CCS contributing 15-55% of CO2
mitigation to 2100
gy Perspectives
p
((2006)) – CCS 20-28% of
• IEA Technology
mitigation to 2050. Second only to energy efficiency.
• Stern Report (2006) – CCS ~10% mitigation by 2025, ~20% by
2050 Marginal
2050.
M i l mitigation
iti ti costs
t without
ith t CCS iincrease b
by ~60%.
60%
• EC/Shell (2007) - 7 yrs delay CCS = 90GT CO2 to 2050 = 3 yrs
global emissions = 10ppm
• World Energy Outlook 2007. “CCS is one of the most promising routes
for mitigating emissions in the longer term and could reconcile continued
coal burning with the need to cut emissions in the longer term”.
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World Primary Energy Demand
billion tonnes of oill equivalent
18
Other renewables
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a
century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
(IEA/OEACD WEO 2007)
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How much energy is left in the world?
Coal
Oil
Gas
Uranium*
Russian
Federation
Europe
N th America
North
A
i
Middle East
Africa
South America
Chi
China
O
Other
Asia/Pacific
Australia/New
Zealand
Sources: BP Statistical Review 2005; WEC Survey of Energy Resources 2001; Reasonably Assured Sources plus inferred resources to US$80/kg U 1/1/03 from OECD NEA & IAEA
Uranium 2003; Resources, Production & Demand updated 2005; *energy equivalence of uranium assumed to be ~20,000 times that of coal
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Reference Scenario:
China & India in Global CO2 Emissions
Cumulative Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
United States
European Union
Japan
China
1900-2005
2006-2030
India
0
100
200
300
billion tonnes
400
500
Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in 2005
2005-2030
2030
comes from China & India
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WEO 2007 Reference Scenario:
World’s Top Five CO2 Emitters
2005
2015
2030
Gt
rank
Gt
rank
Gt
rank
US
5.8
1
6.4
2
6.9
2
Chi
China
5.1
1
2
86
8.6
1
11 4
11.4
1
Russia
1.5
3
1.8
4
2.0
4
Japan
1.2
4
1.3
5
1.2
5
India
1.1
5
1.8
3
3.3
3
China overtook the US to become the largest emitter in 2007,
while India becomes the third-largest by 2015
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Carbon Lock-in - New and replacement fossil fueled
power plants 2003-2030
1,883
2,000
,
Lifetime Carbon
Coal = 145 GtC
Gas = 63 GtC
Oil = 20 GtC
1,391
1,500
GW 1,000
237
500
0
Coal
Gas
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Oil
Coal Will Dominate the Power Generation Mix in China
CO2 Emissions from China's Coal-fired Power
Plants
7 000
Existing
New to 2015
New 2015-2030
6 000
Mt of CO2
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
Source: WEO 2007
1 000
0
2006 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology,
and be crucial for emissions through 2050 and beyond
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42 Gt
45
CCS in industry - 3%
40
CCS in power generation - 9%
Nuclear - 13%
Renewables - 20%
35
2
30
Gt of CO
Switching from coal to gas - 8%
25
End Use electricity efficiency - 17%
CSS
is
part
of
the
portfolio
of
27 Gt
options 23 Gt
ALL Options are needed
E d Use
End
U fuel
f l efficiency
ffi i
- 30%
20
15
10
Source: WEO 2007
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
www.ieagreen.org.uk
2030
World Energy Outlook 2007 Conclusions
• Global energy system is on an increasingly
unsustainable
t i bl path
th
• China and India are transforming the global energy
system
y
byy their sheer size
• Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition
to a more secure, lower carbon energy system
• New
N
policies
li i now under
d consideration
id ti would
ld make
k
a major contribution
• Next 10 y
years are critical
• The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid
• Technology will be “locked-in” for decades
• Growing tightness in oil & gas markets
• Challenge is global so solutions must be global
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IEA WEO 2007 Reference Scenario:
Cumulative Investment
Investment, 2006-2030
2006 2030
Electricity
Oil
53%
24%
$5.4 trillion
$11.6 trillion
Biofuels
1%
$4.2 trillion
Gas
19%
Coal
3%
Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $2006)
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CCS Commercialization
¾
Too few large scale demonstrations to accelerate deployment of
g
CCS technologies
¾
This approach could result in risk of project failure
¾
High profile failures concerning CCS projects will result in a
reluctance to invest in the deployment of CCS technologies
¾
We need a path forward to rapid commercialisation of CCS
www.ieagreen.org.uk
ETP 2nd Edition, building on
ETP2006 and WEO2007
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Energy Technology Perspectives
Publication 2008
z How to g
get there
¾ Short and medium term technology policy
needs
¾ Special
S
i l attention
tt ti
for
f technology
t h l
roadmaps
d
z Scenario analysis
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
¾ Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario
¾ Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT)
¾ Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE)
z Technology chapters:
¾ Power sector
¾ End-use sectors
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Goals
z This is a study about the role of
technology
z It will result in key technology
roadmaps that specify development
needs
z It can be a basis for an international
technology cooperation framework
z It is not meant for country
y target
g setting
g
in a post-Kyoto framework
z It is not a study about climate policy
i
instruments
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Key Technology Options
z Supply side
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
Coal + capture
Gas + capture
CO2 storage
g
Nuclear III + IV
Solar – PV
Solar – CSP
Wind
Biomass – IGCC
2ndd generation
biofuels
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
z Demand side
¾ Energy efficient
appliances &
lighting
¾ Efficient building
shells
¾ Energy efficient
motor systems
¾ Efficient ICEs
¾ Heat p
pumps
p
¾ Hybrid cars
¾ Car Batteries
¾ Fuel cells
¾ Industrial CCS
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
•Roadmaps – Outline
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Scenarios
z Five power sector
¾ ACT MAP and BLUE MAP
¾ Fewer nuclear constraints (2000 GW)
¾ Less renewables
bl expansion
i
¾ Less CCS
¾ Less end-use
end use efficiency
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
z Three transport sector variants (BLUE)
¾ Biofuels,
Biofuels plug
plug-ins
ins and hydrogen (Map)
¾ Maximum plug-in hybrids (EV)
y
g
FCVs ((FCV))
¾ Maximum hydrogen
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
ACT
z Energy
gy CO2 emissions in 2050 back
to the level of 2005
published in
z Revision of ACT as p
ETP2006
¾Options
p
with a cost up
p to USD 50/t
/
CO2 – worldwide (model outcome)
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
z This implies
p
a significantly
g
y
adjusted energy system
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
•Blue Case
z -50% energy related CO2 in 2050,
compared to 2005
z This could be consistent with 450 ppm
(depending on post-2050 emissions
trends)
z Options with a cost of up to USD 200/t CO2
needed (model outcome)
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
¾ Significantly
Si ifi
tl higher
hi h costt with
ith less
l
optimistic assumptions
z Blue is uncertain, therefore a number of
cases needed
d d
z Blue is only possible if the whole world
participates fully
z This implies a completely different energy
system
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•AGENCY
The Carbon Challenge
Emissions in
BASELINE
70
60
Power sector
[Gt CO2
2/yr]
50
30
Buildings
20
Transport
10
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Emissions in
BLUE
2012
2030
2050
•Improved efficiency and decarbonizing the power sector could bring emissions
back to current levels by 2050. To achieve a 50% cut we would also have to
revolutionize the transport sector.
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•2 0 0 8
Industry
40
0
2005
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Marg
ginal Costt [USD/t C
CO2]
A New Energy Revolution ?
1000
Transport alternative fuels
High
g
Estimate
800
Industry
fuel switching &CCS
600
400
Power
•2 0 0 8
ETP2008
Sector ACT MAP
Low
Estimate
200
End-use efficiency
0
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
ETP2008
BLUE
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
-200
2050 CO2 Emissions Reduction From Baseline
[Gt CO2/yr]
To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 a CO2 incentive
of $50/t is needed.
needed Reducing emissions by 50% would require a
$200/t incentive.
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Average Annual Power Generation
Capacity Additions in the BLUE Case,
2010 – 2050 (DRAFT)
Coal-fired
Coal
fired with CCS
38 CCS coal-fired
coal fired plants (500 MW)
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Gas-fired with CCS
20 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW)
•2 0 0 8
Nuclear
26 nuclear plants (1000 MW)
Hydropower
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
1/3 Canadian hydropower capacity
Biomass
222 CHP Plants (50 MW)
Wind
17,500 Turbines (4 MW)
Geothermal
132 Geothermal Units (100 MW)
PV
175 million m2
CSP
80 CSP plants (250 MW)
0
20
40
60
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
80
[GW/yr]
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
CCS Use (Draft)
ACT Map 6 Gt; BLUE Map 11 Gt CCS
Is such expansion really feasible ?
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
13%
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
REFINERIES
ETC.
28%
INDUSTRY
POWER
59%
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•BLUE Map CCS shares
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Primary Energy Demand (Draft)
10,000
2050
9,000
2050
2050
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2050
Baseline
•2 0 0 8
8,000
7 000
7,000
Mtoe
6,000
ACT
5,000
Baseline
2005..
4,000
3,000
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Baseline
ACT
BLUE
2005..
ACT
BLUE
ACT
BLUE
2005
2005..
BLUE
Baseline
2,000
2005..
1,000
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
0
Coal
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
Oil
Gas
Biomass
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Key Messages
z
z
z
z
z
z
z
z
z
Blue is achievable but is it realistic ?
Global action needed,
needed extremely challenging
Technology is the key to solving the problem
We need a step change in government policies, with
closer
l
international
i t
ti
l collaboration
ll b
ti
The roadmaps can provide a focus for this
Efficiency/power sector first
Blue implies also deep cuts for transport and
industry
USD 50-60 trillion cost
Important supply security benefits
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Next Steps - Process
z Publication release June 7-8 G8
Energy Ministers meeting, Aomori,
Japan
¾UK press conference ?
¾German press conference ?
¾Others ?
•ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
•2 0 0 8
•Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
z Japanese Hokkaido initiative to take
forward the roadmaps
•INTERNATIONA
L
•ENERGY
•In support of the G8 Plan of Action
•AGENCY
•© OECD/IEA - 2008
Thank You!
John Gale
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
[email protected]
www.ieagreen.org.uk