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Transcript
Massey University Energy Post-graduate conference
2006
The challenge of climate change
and sustainable energy
deployment .
In the next 30 minutes….
1.
2.
3.
Highlight the latest scientific
knowledge concerning the growing
threat of climate change.
Outline developments and world
trends in renewable energy systems.
Relate these issues to current energy
and greenhouse gas mitigation
policies.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations
over the past 450,000 years
380
280
180
Last glacial-interglacial temperature cycle
Migrations of
Great European
fully modern humans
civilisations:
from South Asia
Greek, Roman
to Europe
Beginning
Aborigines
of agriculture
arrive in
Australia
First migration of
fully modern humans
out of Africa
6
4
Mean global surface
temperature past
1000 years
Temperature (°C)
1
3
2
IPCC
scenario
0 projections
to 2100
1
0.5
0
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Global Temperature
(°C)
5
2000
2070
IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007!!
“For the energy supply sector a wide
range of mitigation options is available
in the short to medium time frame.
Implementation will be in the form of a
portfolio of options: improved power
station efficiency, fuel switching from
coal to gas, renewable energy, advanced
nuclear power and carbon capture and
storage. Realising these measures will
require an active policy involvement.”
1970-2004
2003
23.5 MtCO2 emissions
2030
33 Mt CO2 emissions
I had a nightmare…..
What if the forecasters of abrupt climate
change and peak of conventional oil by
2020 are both proved to be correct?
Unconventional oil shales,
tar sands, coalbed
methane (and clathrates)
require different and more
complex extraction and
upgrading methods.
Peak conventional oil?
Estimated Ultimately Recoverables
Billion barrels
Various EUR estimates
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Recent EUR estimates range
between 1800 to 3000 Bn barrels.
We know around 1100 billion barrels have
been consumed to date and that we are using
around 84 M bbl / day or 30 billion bbl / year.
Even if peak oil proves to be some years
away, the oil price is likely to remain high.
Increasing demand from China, Korea etc.
 Refinery capacity limited to meet growing
demand.
 Getting more difficult to extract – for
example Arctic and deep water sites.
 Carbon charges to be added.
 Alternatives will be more costly – oil shales,
tar sands, liquids from coal etc.
 Most reserves in Middle East so OPEC
dominate the market.

World Proven and Probable oil reserves
Oil and Biofuels Exporters
Oil Trade based on WEO 2004
with only Brazil
exporting
bioethanol.
2004
2030
Biomass trade anticipated showing
possible exporters (dark green and
striped) and importers (light green)
New Zealand - Primary energy supply 743 PJ/yr
- Consumer energy 504 PJ/yr
Theoretical Technical Economic Market
Solar
1,562,000 234,000
22
0.01
Wind
3,707,000
4,500
34
2.3
Biomass 241,000
3,200
347
36
Hydro
915
365
121
89
Geothermal 547
82
30
22
Wave 14,958,000 8,975,000
0
0
Tidal
12
3
0
0
Ocean 12,344,000 123,500
0
0
Coal
300,000?PJ
64PJ/yr
Oil
1,000?PJ
65PJ/yr + imports
Gas
2,000?PJ
230PJ/yr
Timescales of natural cycles of
renewable energy sources
In summary……………
• The world is rapidly changing.
• Threats include rising energy prices, energy
supply security, and climate change.
• “Abrupt” climate change may occur.
• Renewable energy, energy efficiency and
C sequestration have a mitigation role to play.
• Significant increases in R and D investment
will be needed for more rapid deployment of
renewable and distributed energy.
•Stabilising atmospheric concentrations of
GHGs at presumed acceptable levels will
depend on the costs and risks:
Adaptation versus Mitigation?
Carbon emissions are directly proportional to:
• GDP growth x
• energy intensity x
• carbon intensity of energy supply.
If any of these increase so do C emissions.
Can reduce energy intensity by energy
efficient technologies and management.
Can reduce carbon intensity by carbon
sequestration; fuel switching from coal to gas
to nuclear; and increasing renewable energy.
BUT……..
most scenarios being analysed in the IPCC AR4
“Energy Supply” chapter predict that by 2050:
• world GDP will have doubled;
• energy intensity will increase with primary energy
demand rising from 470 EJ today to over 1000 EJ by
2050; and
• only a limited reduction in carbon intensity of the
energy supply mix from renewables and nuclear.
• Therefore technology development and drastic
policy measures will be needed including upgrading
the building code, educating the public, regulating
for energy use and adding carbon charges .