Massey University Energy Post-graduate conference 2006 The challenge of climate change and sustainable energy deployment . In the next 30 minutes…. 1. 2. 3. Highlight the latest scientific knowledge concerning the growing threat of climate change. Outline developments and world trends in renewable energy systems. Relate these issues to current energy and greenhouse gas mitigation policies. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past 450,000 years 380 280 180 Last glacial-interglacial temperature cycle Migrations of Great European fully modern humans civilisations: from South Asia Greek, Roman to Europe Beginning Aborigines of agriculture arrive in Australia First migration of fully modern humans out of Africa 6 4 Mean global surface temperature past 1000 years Temperature (°C) 1 3 2 IPCC scenario 0 projections to 2100 1 0.5 0 -0.5 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Global Temperature (°C) 5 2000 2070 IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007!! “For the energy supply sector a wide range of mitigation options is available in the short to medium time frame. Implementation will be in the form of a portfolio of options: improved power station efficiency, fuel switching from coal to gas, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power and carbon capture and storage. Realising these measures will require an active policy involvement.” 1970-2004 2003 23.5 MtCO2 emissions 2030 33 Mt CO2 emissions I had a nightmare….. What if the forecasters of abrupt climate change and peak of conventional oil by 2020 are both proved to be correct? Unconventional oil shales, tar sands, coalbed methane (and clathrates) require different and more complex extraction and upgrading methods. Peak conventional oil? Estimated Ultimately Recoverables Billion barrels Various EUR estimates 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Recent EUR estimates range between 1800 to 3000 Bn barrels. We know around 1100 billion barrels have been consumed to date and that we are using around 84 M bbl / day or 30 billion bbl / year. Even if peak oil proves to be some years away, the oil price is likely to remain high. Increasing demand from China, Korea etc. Refinery capacity limited to meet growing demand. Getting more difficult to extract – for example Arctic and deep water sites. Carbon charges to be added. Alternatives will be more costly – oil shales, tar sands, liquids from coal etc. Most reserves in Middle East so OPEC dominate the market. World Proven and Probable oil reserves Oil and Biofuels Exporters Oil Trade based on WEO 2004 with only Brazil exporting bioethanol. 2004 2030 Biomass trade anticipated showing possible exporters (dark green and striped) and importers (light green) New Zealand - Primary energy supply 743 PJ/yr - Consumer energy 504 PJ/yr Theoretical Technical Economic Market Solar 1,562,000 234,000 22 0.01 Wind 3,707,000 4,500 34 2.3 Biomass 241,000 3,200 347 36 Hydro 915 365 121 89 Geothermal 547 82 30 22 Wave 14,958,000 8,975,000 0 0 Tidal 12 3 0 0 Ocean 12,344,000 123,500 0 0 Coal 300,000?PJ 64PJ/yr Oil 1,000?PJ 65PJ/yr + imports Gas 2,000?PJ 230PJ/yr Timescales of natural cycles of renewable energy sources In summary…………… • The world is rapidly changing. • Threats include rising energy prices, energy supply security, and climate change. • “Abrupt” climate change may occur. • Renewable energy, energy efficiency and C sequestration have a mitigation role to play. • Significant increases in R and D investment will be needed for more rapid deployment of renewable and distributed energy. •Stabilising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at presumed acceptable levels will depend on the costs and risks: Adaptation versus Mitigation? Carbon emissions are directly proportional to: • GDP growth x • energy intensity x • carbon intensity of energy supply. If any of these increase so do C emissions. Can reduce energy intensity by energy efficient technologies and management. Can reduce carbon intensity by carbon sequestration; fuel switching from coal to gas to nuclear; and increasing renewable energy. BUT…….. most scenarios being analysed in the IPCC AR4 “Energy Supply” chapter predict that by 2050: • world GDP will have doubled; • energy intensity will increase with primary energy demand rising from 470 EJ today to over 1000 EJ by 2050; and • only a limited reduction in carbon intensity of the energy supply mix from renewables and nuclear. • Therefore technology development and drastic policy measures will be needed including upgrading the building code, educating the public, regulating for energy use and adding carbon charges .