Download FOUR CHALLENGES FACING INFRASTRUCTURE

Global Challenges for
the 21st Century
Dr. Hongjoo Hahm
World Bank Office Croatia
Challenge 1:
Scarcity of Resources
(Constant Birth Rate Scenario)
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World Population
(1950
- 2050)
World
Population
1950
–
2050
(Medium Case)
Population
10
Population (billions)
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8
7
6
5
In the next 40 years, the global
population will grow by almost
2.5 billion
and more than half of those
will live in developing
countries
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3
2
1
19
50
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55
19
60
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65
19
70
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75
19
80
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85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
0
Year
Source: UNPD 2007
World
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Less developed regions
More developed regions
Least developed regions
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7
8
9
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Washington Post
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Washington Post
Gapminder
Fertility vs. Income per capita
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Gapminder
Fertility vs. Girl’s Education
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World Urban Population
In 1950, 68% of world’s population from developing countries
In 2010, 85% of world population from developing countries
In 2008, one-half 50%of the world’s people lived in cities
By 2050, two-thirds 66% of the world’s people will live in cities
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Source: UNHSP/Basics1/02
POPULATION IN BILLIONS
10
8
6
4
2
An Urban World
URBAN DEVELOPING
URBAN DEVELOPED
RURAL
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Global Population Density by 2015
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Source: Poverty Mapping Urban Rural Population Database, United Nations FAO, 2005
Urbanization: Mega-Cities
Megacities today
• Cover just 2% of the Earth’s
land surface
• 75% of industrial wood use
• 60% of human water use
• Nearly 80% of all human
produced carbon emissions
Map source: www.channelone.com
Megacities tomorrow
• By 2025 more than 300
cities worldwide will have
more than 1 million people
• The struggle to achieve an
environmentally sustainable
economy for the 21st
century will be won or lost
in the world's urban areas
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Source: www3.sympatico.ca/truegrowth/demographics.htm
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Global Population:
Rising Demand for Resources
• Too Many (especially in developing world)
• Too Old (especially in developed world)
• Too Urban (globally)
• Global Migration
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Population and Human Development Needs
Of 6.5 billion people in the world today
• 1.6 billion lack basic energy services
• 2.5 billion use wood, dung or other biomass to
cook their food
• 2.6 billion people lack access to clean water
and sanitation
By 2050, almost 2.5 billion people will be born.
Is there enough to go around?
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Resources
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Scarce resources
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Global Water Scarcity
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UNEP
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http://www.albertapcf.ab.ca/grasslands/images/
library/mixed/Irrigation.JPG
http://photogallery.nrcs.usda.gov/Index.asp
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How Much?
1 kg of lettuce
1 kg of tomatoes
1 kg of potatoes
1 kg of wheat
1 kg of carrots
1 kg of apples
1 kg of chicken
1 kg of pork
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174 liters
174 liters
180 liters
188 liters
250 liters
370 liters
6,170 liters
12,340 liters
University of California
- 1/3 of arable land
used for cattle grazing.
- 1/3 of methane
produced by cows
- 1/3 of grain produced
used for cow fodder
One kilogram of grain-fed beef needs at least
22,710 liters of water
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the greenhouse gas emissions arising every year from the production and
consumption of cheeseburgers is roughly the amount emitted by 6.5 million to
19.6 million SUVs
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"In a world where an estimated
one in every six people goes hungry every day,
the politics of meat consumption are
increasingly heated, since meat production is
an inefficient use of grain …...
Continued growth in meat output is
dependent on feeding grains to animals,
creating competition for grain
between affluent meat eaters
and the world's poor.”
Worldwatch Institute
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Keeping Up?
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Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows: LTG 30 year update 2004
Losing Focus on Food Production
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; International Rice Research Institute; US Department of Agriculture;
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; via the World Bank. Via the New York Times
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Food vs. Energy
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Source: Commodity Research Bureau
The Times
March 7, 2008
‘Rush for bio fuels threatens starvation
on a global scale’
In 2010, more than 1/3 of
US corn acreage was
earmarked for bio ethanol
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Estimated growth in fertilizer use 1960-2020
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Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Deforestation
Forest cover 1996
Forests Likely to Survive Without Human Assistance
Source: Bryant. D., Nielsen. D. and Tangeley. L. (1997)
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Satellite image of
Global Burning
with inset of
Indonesia taken
2009
*Source: ATSR Fire Atlas, European Space Agency
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Primary energy consumption
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Primary Energy Consumption
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Fossil fuel use
Source: EIA
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‘Peak’ Oil
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Proven oil reserves
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World Oil Consumption
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Asia-Pacific Oil Consumption
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Source: University of Cambridge
Proven Gas Reserves
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World gas consumption
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Coal production and consumption
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Hydrocarbon energy and CO2
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GapMinder
C02 output per capita
vs.
Income per capita
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Options for change
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Challenge 2:
Climate Change
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Climate Change
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Carbon concentration in the
atmosphere today is higher
than it has been at any point
in the last 66,000 years
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New Scientist
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oC
per decade (1979 - 2005)
Source: IPCC AR4
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Ecological Footprint 1996 and 2050
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0
3
6
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Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2004
So….
What do we do?
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Global Challenges of 21st Century
“The biggest challenge ahead is
how to manage water resources faced with
competition and climate change
to meet rising food needs
while protecting the access of poor
and vulnerable people.”
Kevin Watkins. Lead Author - Beyond scarcity:
Power, poverty and the global water crisis
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Adapting to a changing world
Any one of these challenges alone is cause for
global action.
In combination they exacerbate existing threats
and create new ones.
Development strategies must take into account
all factors facing the world today.
The need to act now is imperative
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Coming soon…….?
• Significantly increased global migration
• Growth of urban agriculture
• Eco cities
• Retro fitting/climate proofing infrastructure
• Increased seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers
• Increased frequency of extreme weather events
• Prioritized ‘environmental’ flows
• Declining/increasing hydro power potential
• Improved watershed management
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Coming soon…….?
• Pricing of embedded water in food/products
• Rising cost pressure on carbon intensive pumping and
treatment methods
• Mass desalination
• Efficiency gains/loss reduction
• Large scale domestic & industrial rainwater catchment
• Increased water re-use
• Increased politicisation
• Heightened regional/national tensions
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Global Challenges for
the 21st Century
Dr. Hongjoo Hahm
World Bank Office Croatia
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