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Solar energy from the desert for HUMAN SECURITY in a world with10 billion people Prof. Dr. Michael Düren II. Physikalisches Institut Univ. Giessen, Germany [email protected] 2nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership between Africa and Europe June 8, 2009, Gießen Challenges of the 21st century • Population growth • Energy demand • Climate change • Water shortage • Migration Michael Düren, Gießen, June 8, 2009 Population growth and energy demand Our society consumes a quantity of oil in 1 day that needed a geological production time of 1000 years! Nuclear Renewables Gas Cole Oil Population Beijing CO2 Increase of CO2 concentration The atmospheric CO2-concentration increases rapidly due to the combustion of fossil energy sources. Climate change Arktis 01/1979 → 01/2003 Global climate change The average world temperature and the sea level are growing due to the green house effect. Arktis, 01/1979 Arktis, 01/2003 Water shortage and migration Our problems are not limited to our energy supply. They will affect our future society in many areas. Spain, 2008 Historic Contributions to Global Warming Present wealth and historic emissions are related Light at night, as seen from sattelite “The Credibility of Freedom” Let us understand the battle against poverty and climate change as strategic tasks to be solved by us all. As the main sources of the factors causing climate change, the industrialized nations are responsible for the people in developing countries having been hit hardest. The fight against poverty and climate change must be one. "Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit" Begreifen wir den Kampf gegen Armut und Klimawandel als strategische Aufgaben für alle. Die Industriestaaten tragen als Hauptverursacher des Klimawandels die Verantwortung dafür, dass die Menschen in den Entwicklungsländern am härtesten davon getroffen sind. Der Kampf gegen die Armut und der Kampf gegen den Klimawandel müssen gemeinsam gekämpft werden. Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009 Challenges of the 21st century We are in a race against time Possible solutions of the energy problem: • Energy saving: most important short term option • Cole, oil, gas: unacceptable greenhouse gas emission • Nuclear energy: terrorism and proliferation… • Nuclear fusion: not available in the next 50 years • Photovoltaic: still too expensive to produce many Giga-Watts • Biomass: limited availability and in competition with food production • Wind: excellent options are the northern seas and the southern trade winds • CSP: solar thermal power plants in the deserts: simple, no danger, abundant energy source (lower demand, higher efficiency) (CO2-storage is an improvement but not a solution) (13000 new reactors are not a good solution of the world energy problem) Concentrated solar power I Parabolic trough technology: see talk by Kai Schmitz Solar power day and night Mirror-field Thermal energy storage (liquid salt) Andalucia (Spain) Concentrated solar power II Fresnel technology Plants can grow in the collector shade The first Linear Fresnel Solar Steam Generator By NOVATEC-BioSol (Germany), 1.5 MW, in Spain No water Consumption •Dry cooling •Dry cleaning Air cooled condensor Concentrated solar power III Solar tower technology see talk by Bernhard Hoffschmidt Concentrated solar power IV Dish-Stirling technology see talk by Peter Ruppert Local electricity supply Ideal for rural areas Can be produced and repaired in any car repair shop The sun, our nuclear fusion reactor Safty distance 150 000 000 km CSP-mirrors, our „Satellite dish“ for energy Solar energy from the desert: The solar energy irradiated on the deserts of our planet in 1hour exceeds the global energy consumption of 1 year Economic potential, in PWh/y (= 1 000 000 000 MWh/y) Global demand: 18 PWh/y Desert potential: 3000 PWh/y 290 126 ~1100 144 PWh/y 700 95 125 ~200 ~200 11 Transport of electric power High voltage DC line has little power losses (no 50 Hz radiation i.e. no “electro-smog”) Example: 5 GW, 800 kV; Losses: ~3% in 1000 km Costs: Africa-Europe ~ 0,01 €/kWh "Baltic-Cable" in Sweden Where is your next desert? 90% of the world population lives in a distance of less than 3000 km away from the next desert 22 Proposal for Europe and MENA Power demand, and supply scenario in MENA (Middle East & North Africa) Transition mix 2000-2050 Northfor Africa including export toMiddle EuropeEast and&power desalination 4500 4000 MENA Electricity [TWh/y] 3500 Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear 3000 2500 7x 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy canEurope be phased out to a large extend. 4500 4000 EU Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity [TWh/y] 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend. >80% renewables SECURITY ? Is our current energy system secure? • Fossil resources: – limited, and dangerous (climate change) – resources in the hands of a few suppliers (Gas: Russia,… Oil: Arabia,… and a few others) – costs are increasing and unpredictable • Nuclear resources: – limited, and dangerous (proliferation, terrorism) – technology in the hands of a few suppliers (not a problem for Europe) – costs for safety are increasing and may become a problem Security of renewable energies: • Solar power supply from >10 countries in MENA and South Europe • Thermal storage of CSP regulates day/night demand • Fluctuations and failures are averaged out by a distributed system of renewables (sun and wind and others); • Large pump storage power stations for long-term storage (Fjords,..) • Local fossil power stations (coal) should be kept as backup in case of a political crisis • Sun and wind are reliable and long-term stable! Fuel costs will remain stable (0 €/kWh) for the next 50 years Estimate of electricity costs from CSP 30 Prediction of electricity costs (for Germany): Geschätzte zukünftige Stromkosten z.B. in Deutschland 31 Market introduction of CSP technology Phase 0 Technology innovation 1 conceptual 1. 2. 3. 4. 2 operational Phase 1 Market introduction 3 bankable Invention, basic idea Demo of functionality . Demo of reliability Cost reduction for competition 4 commercial Barrier of Phase 1: CSP market introduction cost a coarse assessment • Main uncertainty: development of fossil fuel cost • CSP capacity for market introduction : 10 GW collectors • Operating time: 2500h/y 25 TWh/y • Feed in tariff over 20 years: 500 TWh • Tariff surcharge 0.1 €/kWh 50 bn € =2.5 bn €/y Cost of introducing CSP (and saving the climate) = • cost of saving a bank! • The German government alone spent ~1 bn € in 1983 on research of nuclear fission technology •5% of 1 year world weapon expenses (BICC 2009) • investment of 5 €/person for a 10 bn people world of 2050 Who can pay? Who should pay? USA CANADA EU JAPAN … Where are fast growing power demands in the proximity to deserts? MENA CHINA INDIA ECOWAS … “The Credibility of Freedom” This crisis offers a unique opportunity in that now, it is clear to all of us that no-one can permanently create advantages solely for himself. We, all of humanity, are in the same boat. And people in the same boat must help each other. In the 21st century, self-interest has come to mean that we must take care of one another. In particular, we in the North must learn to rethink… "Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit" Die große Chance der Krise besteht darin, dass jetzt alle erkennen können: Keiner kann mehr dauerhaft Vorteil nur für sich schaffen. Die Menschheit sitzt in einem Boot. Und die in einem Boot sitzen, sollen sich helfen. Eigennutz im 21. Jahrhundert heißt: sich umeinander kümmern. Vor allem wir im Norden müssen umdenken… Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009 Future vision 100% renewables Liquid fuels from concentrated solar power (e.g. catalytic reactions at high temperature): Liquid hydrogen from water, Alcohol from CO2, … A global and secure renewable energy concept exists. It is our job to make it happen in time! References • www.desertec.org • www.physik.uni-giessen.de/dueren/sepa • www.clubofrome.de • www.dlr.de • de.wikipedia.org • … Thanks to Gerhard Knies and the other colleagues from DESERTEC for providing a lot of the transparencies Yes, we can!