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Solar energy from the desert
for HUMAN SECURITY in a world with10 billion people
Prof. Dr. Michael Düren
II. Physikalisches Institut
Univ. Giessen, Germany
[email protected]
2nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership
between Africa and Europe
June 8, 2009, Gießen
Challenges of the 21st century
• Population growth
• Energy demand
• Climate change
• Water shortage
• Migration
Michael Düren, Gießen, June 8, 2009
Population growth and energy demand
Our society consumes a quantity of oil in 1 day that
needed a geological production time of 1000 years!
Nuclear
Renewables
Gas
Cole
Oil
Population
Beijing
CO2
Increase of CO2 concentration
The atmospheric CO2-concentration increases rapidly
due to the combustion of fossil energy sources.
Climate change
Arktis
01/1979 → 01/2003
Global climate change
The average world temperature and the sea level
are growing due to the green house effect.
Arktis, 01/1979
Arktis, 01/2003
Water shortage and migration
Our problems are not limited to our energy supply.
They will affect our future society in many areas.
Spain, 2008
Historic Contributions to Global Warming
Present
wealth
and
historic
emissions
are
related
Light at night, as seen from sattelite
“The Credibility of Freedom”
Let us understand the battle against poverty and
climate change as strategic tasks to be solved by
us all.
As the main sources of the factors causing climate
change, the industrialized nations are responsible
for the people in developing countries having
been hit hardest.
The fight against poverty and climate change
must be one.
"Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit"
Begreifen wir den Kampf gegen Armut und Klimawandel als
strategische Aufgaben für alle. Die Industriestaaten tragen als
Hauptverursacher des Klimawandels die Verantwortung dafür, dass
die Menschen in den Entwicklungsländern am härtesten davon
getroffen sind. Der Kampf gegen die Armut und der Kampf gegen
den Klimawandel müssen gemeinsam gekämpft werden.
Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009
Challenges of the 21st century
We are in a race against time
Possible solutions of the energy problem:
• Energy saving:
most important short term option
• Cole, oil, gas:
unacceptable greenhouse gas emission
• Nuclear energy:
terrorism and proliferation…
• Nuclear fusion:
not available in the next 50 years
• Photovoltaic:
still too expensive to produce many Giga-Watts
• Biomass:
limited availability and in competition with
food production
• Wind:
excellent options are the northern seas and
the southern trade winds
• CSP:
solar thermal power plants in the deserts:
simple, no danger, abundant energy source
(lower demand, higher efficiency)
(CO2-storage is an improvement but not a solution)
(13000 new reactors are not a good solution of the world energy problem)
Concentrated solar power I
Parabolic trough technology:
see talk by Kai Schmitz
Solar power day and night
Mirror-field
Thermal energy storage (liquid salt)
Andalucia (Spain)
Concentrated solar power II
Fresnel technology
Plants can grow in the collector shade
The first Linear Fresnel Solar Steam Generator
By NOVATEC-BioSol (Germany), 1.5 MW, in Spain
No water
Consumption
•Dry cooling
•Dry cleaning
Air cooled
condensor
Concentrated solar power III
Solar tower technology
see talk by Bernhard Hoffschmidt
Concentrated solar power IV
Dish-Stirling technology
see talk by Peter Ruppert
Local electricity supply
Ideal for rural areas
Can be produced and repaired
in any car repair shop
The sun, our nuclear fusion reactor
Safty distance 150 000 000 km
CSP-mirrors,
our „Satellite dish“
for energy
Solar energy from the desert:
The solar energy irradiated
on the deserts of our planet
in 1hour
exceeds the global energy consumption
of 1 year
Economic potential, in PWh/y
(= 1 000 000 000 MWh/y)
Global demand:
18 PWh/y
Desert potential: 3000 PWh/y
290
126
~1100
144 PWh/y
700
95
125
~200
~200
11
Transport of electric power
High voltage DC line has little power losses
(no 50 Hz radiation i.e. no “electro-smog”)
Example:
5 GW, 800 kV;
Losses:
~3% in 1000 km
Costs:
Africa-Europe
~ 0,01 €/kWh
"Baltic-Cable" in Sweden
Where is your next desert?
90% of the world population lives in a distance of
less than 3000 km away from the next desert
22
Proposal for Europe
and MENA
Power demand, and supply scenario in MENA
(Middle East & North Africa)
Transition mix 2000-2050
Northfor
Africa
including export toMiddle
EuropeEast
and&power
desalination
4500
4000
MENA
Electricity [TWh/y]
3500
Desalination
Export Solar
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Nuclear
3000
2500
7x
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25
with 17% import from MENA
Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies,
nuclear and fossil energy canEurope
be phased out to a large extend.
4500
4000
EU
Import Solar
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Electricity [TWh/y]
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25
with 17% import from MENA
Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies,
nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend.
>80% renewables
SECURITY ?
Is our current energy system secure?
• Fossil resources:
–
limited, and dangerous (climate change)
–
resources in the hands of a few suppliers
(Gas: Russia,… Oil: Arabia,… and a few others)
–
costs are increasing and unpredictable
• Nuclear resources:
–
limited, and dangerous (proliferation, terrorism)
–
technology in the hands of a few suppliers (not a problem for Europe)
–
costs for safety are increasing and may become a problem
Security of renewable energies:
• Solar power supply from >10 countries in MENA and South Europe
• Thermal storage of CSP regulates day/night demand
• Fluctuations and failures are averaged out by a distributed system of
renewables (sun and wind and others);
• Large pump storage power stations for long-term storage (Fjords,..)
• Local fossil power stations (coal) should be kept as backup
in case of a political crisis
• Sun and wind are reliable and long-term stable!
Fuel costs will remain stable (0 €/kWh) for the next 50 years 
Estimate of electricity costs from CSP
30
Prediction of electricity costs (for Germany):
Geschätzte zukünftige Stromkosten z.B. in Deutschland
31
Market introduction of CSP technology
Phase 0
Technology innovation
1
conceptual
1.
2.
3.
4.
2
operational
Phase 1
Market introduction
3
bankable
Invention, basic idea
Demo of functionality
.
Demo of reliability
Cost reduction for competition
4
commercial
Barrier of Phase 1: CSP market introduction cost
a coarse assessment
• Main uncertainty: development of fossil fuel cost
• CSP capacity for market introduction :
10 GW collectors
• Operating time: 2500h/y
 25 TWh/y
• Feed in tariff over 20 years:
 500 TWh
• Tariff surcharge 0.1 €/kWh
 50 bn € =2.5 bn €/y
Cost of introducing CSP (and saving the climate) =
• cost of saving a bank!
• The German government alone spent ~1 bn € in 1983
on research of nuclear fission technology
•5% of 1 year world weapon expenses (BICC 2009)
• investment of 5 €/person for a 10 bn people world of 2050
Who can pay? Who should pay?
USA
CANADA
EU
JAPAN
…
Where are fast growing power demands
in the proximity to deserts?
MENA
CHINA
INDIA
ECOWAS
…
“The Credibility of Freedom”
This crisis offers a unique opportunity in that
now, it is clear to all of us that no-one can
permanently create advantages solely for himself.
We, all of humanity, are in the same boat. And
people in the same boat must help each other. In
the 21st century, self-interest has come to mean
that we must take care of one another.
In particular, we in the North must learn to
rethink…
"Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit"
Die große Chance der Krise besteht darin, dass jetzt alle erkennen
können: Keiner kann mehr dauerhaft Vorteil nur für sich schaffen.
Die Menschheit sitzt in einem Boot. Und die in einem Boot sitzen,
sollen sich helfen. Eigennutz im 21. Jahrhundert heißt:
sich umeinander kümmern.
Vor allem wir im Norden müssen umdenken…
Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009
Future vision
100% renewables
Liquid fuels from concentrated solar
power (e.g. catalytic reactions at high
temperature):
Liquid hydrogen from water,
Alcohol from CO2,
…
A global and secure
renewable energy concept
exists.
It is our job to make it happen
in time!
References
• www.desertec.org
• www.physik.uni-giessen.de/dueren/sepa
• www.clubofrome.de
• www.dlr.de
• de.wikipedia.org
• …
Thanks to Gerhard Knies and the other colleagues from
DESERTEC for providing a lot of the transparencies
Yes, we can!