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Sustainable Energy for All A Perspective from GEA Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx [email protected] Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011 www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density Billions of people: Abject poverty: 1.3 Poor: 0.6 Less poor: 1.4 Middle class: 1.6 Rich: 1.2 #5 3.3 2.8 Alternative Access Policies Solid Fuel Users Sub- Saharan Africa Liquid Fuel Users Sub-Saharan Africa 4,2 Solid Fuel Users Pacific Asia Liquid Fuel Users Pacific Asia Solid Fuel Users South Asia Liquid Fuel Users South Asia 3,6 3,0 2,4 1,8 Acess to Modern 1,2 ation in Billions 0,6 0,0 Fuel Users Solid Base 2005 #6 Improved No new policies 2030 50% Fuel Subsidy Microfinance @15% Microfinance @15% 2030 only 2030 + 50% Fuel Subsidy 2030 2030 Energy Goals ● Universal Access to Modern Energy ● Reduction of Energy Intensity by 40% ● Increase of Renewable Share to 30% Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable 2030 Energy Goals ● Universal Access to Modern Energy ● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement ● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 Global Primary Energy 1200 1000 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 800 Microchip EJ Commercial aviation Nuclear energy 600 Television 400 200 Steam engine Electric motor Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 1850 #9 Biomass 1900 1950 2000 2050 Global Primary Energy Efficiency – Counterfactual 1200 1000 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 800 Microchip EJ Commercial aviation Nuclear energy 600 Television 400 200 Steam engine Electric motor Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 1850 #10 Biomass 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear 1200 1000 800 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip EJ Commercial aviation Nuclear energy 600 Television 400 200 Steam engine Electric motor Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 1850 #11 Biomass 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear 1200 1000 800 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ Nuclear phase-out (choice) 600 Oil phase-out (necessary) Renewables Nuclear 400 Gas Oil 200 Coal 0 1850 #12 Biomass 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN 1200 1000 800 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ Limited Intermittent REN 600 Oil phase-out (necessary) Renewables Nuclear 400 Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO2” Gas Oil Coal 0 1850 #13 Biomass 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 MJ/US$2005 MJ/US$2005 Final Energy Intensities 10 8 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 0 1970 2 GEA-Efficiency 1990 2010 2030 2050 0 1970 GEA-Efficiency 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Final Energy Transformations 100% Other Low Carbon (Nuclear, Fossil-CCS) 80% 60% Fossils (Gas, Oil & Coal) Ot 40% 20% Fo RE Renewables (Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Bioenergy) 0% 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies Global Carbon Emissions Global CO2 Emissions - (ATR) NoCCS, NoNuc Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) 140 120 IPCC Category I GEA - Efficiency 100 80 reductions of 35-75% by 2050 60 Peak by 2020 40 20 0 almost zero or negative in the long term -20 1900 #17 1950 2000 2050 2100 www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies Global Energy Investments Annual Energy Investments Innovation RD&D Markets Formation Present Investments Investment for SE4All Investment GEA Range [billion US$2005] [billion US$2005] [billion US$2005] [billion US$2005] [billion US$2005] 2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030 2010 - 2030 Efficiency >> 8 ~5 300 258 - 3652 121 - 365 Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 259 - 406 154 - 631 Access <1 <1 ~9 36 - 41 36 - 41 Total > 50 < 150 1250 1260 - 1680 1120 - 1770 #19