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Strengthening Risk Governance
Capacities for Climate Risk
Sanny R. Jegillos
UNDP Asia-Pacific Regional Center
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Risk Governance
• integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural
aspects and includes the effective engagement of
stakeholders
• how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range
of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly
reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives,
goals and activities.
- International Risk Governance Council
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Increase in severity of events
• Tropical Cyclone (TC) Nargis in Myanmar (2008)
• TC Ketsana, Parma and Mirinae which affected the
Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Lao PDR
(2009)
• Historic flooding in Thailand and in Pakistan (2010-2011)
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EM-DAT/CRED 2009 Report
• number of victims from hydro meteorological disasters
have increased from 35 million on average per year
during 2000-2008 to 50.2 million in 2009
• out of the 245 disasters in 2009, 224 were weather
related, accounting for 55 million people out of the 58
million
• people affected, 7000 out of 8900 of those killed, and
US$15 billion out of the US$19 billion in economic
damages.
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Trends
• Experienced based
• Lessons learned
• Changes in laws, policies, institutional arrangement,
approaches.
• Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015
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But• Recent experiences are confusing ;
• Hotspots and new historic levels of impact;
• Past experiences are no longer reliable predictors of
future events;
• changing characteristics of hazards in terms of
frequency magnitude, location and other characteristics.
Substantial differences in estimating probability
of risk?
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Why is this critical for human development?
Poverty reduction programmes will be at risk.
Human development faces constraint.
Uncertainty due to climate change is a significant risk to
achieving organizational goals.
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The Millennium Development Goals
1. Eradicating extreme poverty and hunger.
2. Achieving universal primary education
3. Promoting gender equality and
empowering women
4. Reducing child mortality
5. Improving maternal health
6. Combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other
diseases.
7. Ensuring environmental sustainability
8. Developing a global partnership for
development
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Example of disaster impacts on
effort to meet the MDGs
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MDG-Based poverty reduction strategies
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Paths to attending MDGs: with/without DRR
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1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Direct impacts
– Damage to housing, service infrastructure, savings, productive
assets and human losses reduce livelihood sustainability.
• Indirect impacts
– Negative macroeconomic impacts including severe short-term
fiscal impacts and wider, longer-term impacts on growth,
development and poverty reduction.
– Forced sale of productive assets by vulnerable households
pushes many into long-term poverty and increases inequality.
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2. Achieve universal primary education
• Direct impacts
– Damage to education infrastructure.
– Population displacement interrupts schooling.
• Indirect impacts
– Increased need for child labor for household work, especially for
girls.
– Reduced household assets make schooling less affordable, girls
probably affected most.
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3. Promote gender equality and
empower women
• Direct impacts
– As men migrate to seek alternative work, women/girl bear an
increased burden of care.
– Women often bear the brunt of distress ‘coping’ strategies e.g.
by reducing food intake.
• Indirect impacts
– Emergency programmes may reinforce power structure which
marginalize women.
– Domestic and sexual violence may rise in the wake of a
disaster.
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4. Reduce child mortality
• Direct impacts
– Children are often most risk, e.g. of drowning in floods.
– Damage to health and water and sanitation infrastructure.
– Injury and illness from disaster weakness children’s immune
systems.
• Indirect impacts
– Increased number of orphan, abandoned and homeless
children.
– Household asset depletion makes clean water, flood and
medicine less affordable.
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5. Improve maternal health
• Direct impacts
– Pregnant women are often at high risk from death/injury in
disasters.
– Damages to health infrastructure.
– Injury and illness from disaster can weaken women’s health.
• Indirect impacts
– Increased responsibilities and workloads create stress for
surviving mothers.
– Household asset depletion makes clean water, food and
medicine less affordable.
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6. Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria
and other diseases
• Direct impacts
– Poor health and nutrition following disasters weakens immunity.
– Damages to health infrastructure. Increased respiratory
diseases associated with damp, dust and air pollution linked to
disaster.
• Indirect impacts
– Increased risk from communicable and vector borne diseases,
e.g. dengue and diarrheal diseases following floods.
– Impoverishment and displacement following disaster can
increase exposure to disease, including HIV and AIDS, and
disrupt health care.
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7. Ensure environment sustainability
• Direct impacts
– Damage to key environment resources and exacerbation of soil
erosion or deforestation. Damage to water management and
other urban infrastructure.
– Slum dwellers/people in temporary settlements often heavily
affected.
• Indirect impacts
– Disaster-induced migration to urban areas and damage to urban
infrastructure increase the number of slum dwellers without
access to basic services and exacerbate poverty.
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8. Develop a global partnership
for development.
• Direct impacts
– Impacts on programmes for small island developing states from
tropical storms, Tsunami etc.
– Impacts on commitment to good governance, development and
poverty reduction – nationally and internationally.
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Critical Knowledge Needed
Improve understanding of Disaster and
Poverty Linkages
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Intensive & Extensive Risks – Sri Lanka
Intensive Risk
Extensive Risk
Mortality
Houses
Destroyed
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Intensive Risk
• Concentrated in seismically active regions, coastal
zones, flood plains and cyclone track zones;
• Changes over time with changes in vulnerable
populations, economic assets and lifeline infrastructure
exposure;
• Catastrophic in scale thus received formal support in
relief and recovery and where structural mitigation
measures are implemented.
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Effects of Intensive Risk to Poverty
• In El Salvador, the two earthquakes in 2001 led to an estimated 2.63.6 per cent increase in poverty.
• In Honduras, the percentage of poor households increased from
63.1% March 1998 to 65.9 % in March 1999 as a consequence of
Hurricane Mitch in October 1998.
• In Vietnam, it is estimated that a further 4-5 per cent of the
population could be pushed into poverty in the event of a disaster.
• In Aceh, Indonesia, the 2004 tsunami is estimated to have increased
the proportion of people living below poverty line from 30 to 50
percent.
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Intensive & Extensive Risks – Nepal
Intensive Risk
Extensive Risk
Mortality
Houses
Destroyed
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Intensive & Extensive Risks – Tamil Nadu
Intensive Risk
Extensive Risk
Mortality
Houses
Destroyed
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Extensive Risk
• Increasing in Asia due to greater frequency and intensity of extreme
climate events;
• More frequent, dynamic and widespread, affecting livelihoods and
poverty:
• Invisible in official reporting, risks that are unaccounted for and
disguise an increasing burden of risk to low income households and
communities;
• Invisible to official response systems, increase burden for coping
with consequences of impact since formal support for response
recovery and institutional disaster risk management programmes
are lacking if not absent.
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Extensive Risk
• UNACCOUNTED: 10% more deaths, 80% more affected, 20%
more economic loss , 50% more houses damaged, 83% more
injured, 45 % more schools damaged and 55% more damages to
health facilities
• 93% are hydro meteorological hazards (1989-2009) in 20 countries
studied
• Comparative analysis at sub national level reveal that risk is
increasing most rapidly in small and medium sized urban centers
with weaker capacities to manage urban growth, deforestation and
destruction of coastal ecosystems are magnifying risk; landslide and
flood risk at the local level are closely associated with poverty
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Recommendations for improving
analysis
• Build and maintain quality disaster loss databases (historical)
• Improve poverty datasets
• Use intensive/ extensive analysis to draw attention of policy makers
to extensive risks which provide “real time” information for risk
accumulation that will eventually result into intensive risk or
catastrophic event
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Trends in Climate Risk
Impact is unfavorable to Least Developed Countries
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
that “ major natural disasters today can cost an average
of 5% of GDP of LDCs ” and further say that the “cost of
climate change in South East Asia could be as high as a
9-13% loss in GDP by 2100.“
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Climate Risk: Cambodia and Timor Leste
• Relatively low to medium exposure to natural hazards.
• Vulnerability is a dominant reason for climate risk.
Evolution of vulnerability and exposure will depend on the
risk management and good governance approaches
that will be taken.
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Capacities (1)
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Risk Sharing
Technology and Infrastructure
Institutional and regulatory
Risk avoidance
Early Warning Systems and Risk Knowledge
Research, Education and Risk Communication
Community coping mechanism
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Capacities (2)
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Capacity to Reduce Vulnerability
Capacity to Monitor Risk
Capacity for Early Warning and Preparedness
Capacity to Respond
Capacity to Recover
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Asia-Pacific Regional Center
[email protected]
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