* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Effects of Land Cover, Topography, and Climate on Pacific
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of Land Cover, Topography, and Climate on Pacific Northwest Flooding and Flood Forecasting JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington January, 2004 http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Presentations/2004/hamlet_coastal_management_jan_2004.ppt Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Hydroclimatology of the Pacific Northwest Annual PNW Precipitation (mm) Elevation (m) The Dalles (mm) Winter Precipitation Summer Precipitation Hydrologic Characteristics of PNW Rivers Normalized Streamflow 3.0 2.5 Snow Dominated 2.0 Transient Snow 1.5 Rain Dominated 1.0 0.5 0.0 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 Month 5 6 7 8 9 Sensitivity of Snowmelt and Transient Rivers to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation 900000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 0 1973 •Streamflow timing is altered • Annual volume stays about the same 800000 Flow (cfs) Temperature warms, precipitation unaltered: Water Year 900000 800000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 1974 1974 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 0 1973 •Streamflow timing stays about the same •Annual volume is altered 700000 Flow (cfs) Precipitation increases, temperature unaltered: Water Year Characteristics of Flooding Events West and East of the Cascades Coastal and Transient Snow Basins (West of the Cascades) Flooding frequently occurs in Nov-Dec when intense rain storms with temperatures above freezing are most likely. In so-called “Rain on Snow” events that produce severe flooding, the presence of snow is actually not the major driver. Instead, intense and sustained precipitation over enlarged basin areas (due to warm temperatures) with fully saturated soils produce the major component of the runoff in the largest events. In moderate flooding events, snow melt and precipitation tend to be more comparable in their contribution to peak streamflows and antecedent snowpack is more important. Effective basin area contributing direct runoff to the river channel system increases in warm winter storm events. Skagit River Basin Cold Warm Snow Melt Dominant Basins (East of the Cascades) Flooding mostly occurs in spring when snow melt peaks. Severe flooding can result from extraordinarily heavy snowpacks over large spatial areas (e.g. WY 1997), rapid snowmelt due to extremely warm or clear weather, or from a combination of sustained snow melt and heavy precipitation (e.g. the Vanport Flood in 1948). Moderate snowmelt floods can have much longer duration in comparison with flooding produced by individual rain storms. Note that huge snowpacks do not necessarily produce severe flooding in spring (e.g. WY 1999). Effects of Land Cover on Flooding in the Pacific Northwest Urbanization (increased impervious surfaces and removal of active soil storage during development) •Altered streamflows: Increased magnitude and “flashiness” of peak flows More rapid recession and lower base flows in late summer •Stream channel erosion and instability •Capacity problems in storm water drainage systems •Ecological problems due to erosion, scouring, or increased nutrient and sediment loadings Typical Effects of Urbanization on a Small Watershed Des Moines Creek Source: Booth D.B., 2000, Forest Cover, Impervious-Surface Area, and the Mitigation of Urbanization Impacts in King County, WA http://depts.washington.edu/cwws/Research/Reports/forest.pdf Effects of Logging and Road Networks •Loss of forest canopy increases total snow accumulation •Increased exposure to wind and solar radiation increases melt rates •Road building and culverts alter natural drainage networks creating “pipes” to the stream channel which increase peak flows during moderate flooding events •Loss of vegetation can produce larger sediment loads or trigger debris flows •Effects of logging and road building are roughly additive. Effects of Forest Canopy on Snow Accumulation Loss of canopy increases the snow water equivalent and increases the rate of melt. Source: Storck, P., 2000, Trees, Snow and Flooding: An Investigation of Forest Canopy Effects on Snow Accumulation and Melt at the Plot and Watershed Scales in the Pacific Northwest, Water Resources Series Technical Report No. 161, Dept of CEE, University of Washington Effects of Harvest Strategies on Magnitude of Flood Peaks Modeling studies (Storck 2000) and comparative analysis of observations in paired catchments (Bowling et al. 2000) show that large scale clearcutting results in increased flood peaks on the order of 10% for small basins in the transient snow zone of the Cascades. Sources: Storck, P., 2000, Trees, Snow and Flooding: An Investigation of Forest Canopy Effects on Snow Accumulation and Melt at the Plot and Watershed Scales in the Pacific Northwest, Water Resources Series Technical Report No. 161, Dept of CEE, University of Washington Bowling, L.C., P. Storck and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2000, Hydrologic effects of logging in Western Washington, United States, Water Resources Research, 36 (11), 3223-3240 Effects of Roads Networks on Peak Flows Bowling and Lettenmaier (1997) estimated that the 10-yr flood peak increased ~10% in two small transient snow basins due to road networks alone. Roads and logging together were estimated to increase the 10-yr flood peak on the order of 20% in the same two small transient snow basins. Bowling, L.C. and Lettenmaier, D.P., 1997, Evaluation of the Effects of Forest Roads on Streamflow in Hard and Ware Creeks, Washington, Water Resources Series Technical Report No. 155, Dept of CEE, University of Washington Effects of Climate Variability on Flooding in the Pacific Northwest Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation A history of the PDO A history of ENSO warm warm cool 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Effects of the PDO and ENSO on Columbia River Summer Streamflows PDO 450000 Cool Cool Warm Warm 350000 300000 250000 200000 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 150000 1900 Apr-Sept Flow (cfs) 400000 Naturalized Summer Streamflow at The Dalles 450000 WarmPDO/WarmENSO Flow (cfs) 400000 WarmPDO/ENSONeut 350000 WarmPDO/CoolENSO 300000 250000 CoolPDO/WarmENSO 200000 CoolPDO/ENSONeut 150000 CoolPDO/CoolENSO 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Probability of Exceedence Pacific Northwest Streamflow Records Selected for Flood Analysis Selection Criteria: •Unregulated Streams •Daily Flow Records •Records 57-65 Years Long Daily Flow Data w/ Threshold (Oct.1,1990-Nov.30,1990) Dungeness R near Sequim, WA 6000 Data Processing Methods daily flow threshold Flow (cfs) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 11/30/90 11/27/90 11/24/90 11/21/90 11/18/90 11/15/90 11/9/90 11/12/90 11/6/90 11/3/90 10/31/90 10/28/90 10/25/90 10/22/90 10/19/90 10/16/90 10/13/90 10/7/90 10/10/90 10/1/90 10/4/90 0 Daily Flow Data w/ Threshold (1986-1996) Dungeness R near Sequim, WA Date 6000 5000 4000 •Set threshold and reset value 3000 •Determine number of peaks above threshold for each climate category 2000 1000 Date 5/23/96 12/6/95 6/20/95 1/2/95 7/17/94 1/29/94 8/13/93 2/25/93 9/9/92 3/24/92 10/7/91 4/21/91 11/3/90 5/18/90 11/30/89 6/14/89 12/27/88 7/11/88 1/24/88 8/9/87 2/21/87 9/4/86 3/19/86 0 10/1/85 Flow (cfs) •Determine mean annual flood for each basin daily flow threshold •Estimate probability of event above threshold for each basin and climate category Transient Snow Basins Probability of Flood Event Above Threshold 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 EwPw EnPw EcPw EwPc Climate Category EnPc EcPc Snow-Dominant Basins Probability of Flood Event Above Threshold 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 EwPw EnPw EcPw EwPc Climate Category EnPc EcPc Effects of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest Four Delta Method Climate Change Scenarios for the PNW Delta T, 2020s Delta T, 2040s 5 5 ~ + 1.7 C ~ + 2.5 C 4 hadCM2 3 hadCM3 2 PCM3 ECHAM4 1 Degrees C Degrees C 4 mean 0 hadCM2 3 hadCM3 2 PCM3 ECHAM4 1 mean 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J -1 F M A Precipitation Fraction, 2020s J J A S O N D Precipitation Fraction, 2040s 1.75 1.75 1.5 1.5 hadCM2 hadCM3 1.25 PCM3 1 ECHAM4 Fraction Fraction M -1 hadCM2 hadCM3 1.25 PCM3 1 ECHAM4 mean 0.75 mean 0.75 0.5 0.5 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Somewhat wetter winters and perhaps somewhat dryer summers Changes in Mean Temperature and Precipitation or Bias Corrected Output from GCMs VIC Hydrology Model ColSim Reservoir Model The main impact: less snow VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalent for Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios) Current Climate 2020s Snow Water Equivalent (mm) 2040s Naturalized Flow for Historic and Global Warming Scenarios Compared to Effects of Regulation at 1990 Level Development Historic Naturalized Flow Estimated Range of Naturalized Flow With 2040’s Warming Regulated Flow Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply) for “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios 9000 8000 6000 Simulated 20th Century Climate 2020s Climate Change Scenario 2040s Climate Change Scenario 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Date 9/2 8/5 7/8 6/10 5/13 4/15 3/18 2/18 1/21 12/24 11/26 10/29 0 10/1 Inflow (acre-ft) 7000 Observed Climate Change: Trends in Temperature, Precipitation, Snowpack, and Streamflow Area-weighted Regional Avg=1.5 F/century Annual Precipitation Trends From HCN stations Elevation (m) Relative Trends in April 1 Snow Water Equivalent 1916-1997 Relative Trend %/yr Relative Trend %/yr Trends in Annual Streamflow at The Dalles from 1858-1998 are strongly downward. 350000 250000 Annual 200000 5 yr mean 10 yr mean 150000 Linear (Annual) 100000 50000 0 1858 1868 1878 1888 1898 1908 1918 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 Annual Mean Flow (cfs) 300000 Some Conclusions Regarding Planning, Project Design Specifications, and Flood Forecasting “Past Performance is not a Good Measure of Future Performance.” Estimates of flood probability distributions and design specifications (e.g. the “100 year” or “1% likelihood” flood) are a complex function of land surface characteristics, interannual and decadal scale climate variability, long-term climate variations (such as global warming), and water management policies, all of which are non-stationary in time. For convenience, estimates of flood design specifications have traditionally been based on fixed periods of the historic record. In the case of expensive or long-lived structures or for planning processes that should be robust to climate variability and climate change, the use of the historic record for flood estimation is problematic both because of relatively small sample size and changing conditions over time. Note that in the case non-stationary conditions over time, longer streamflow records do not necessarily improve estimates of flood frequencies. Problems with Forecasting Applications Based on Statistical Relationships Many operational streamflow forecasting applications are currently based on statistical relationships between weather or climate forecasts, snowpack measurements, and streamflow. When land cover of the basin or climate conditions change, the skill of these forecasts can be impaired. Such problems cannot be resolved in the short term because there is no training data available for the altered conditions. These problems have serious implications both for short term flood forecasting applications and forecasts used for water management at seasonal time scales. Use of dynamic models can improve estimates of hydrologic design specifications and short-term and seasonal streamflow forecasts. Current or Projected Land Surface Conditions Hydrologic Model Design Criteria Forecasts Planning Scenarios Updated or Projected Streamflow Time Series Current or Projected Meteorological Data