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Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming? Dr. Robert Brecha Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton Dayton, OH USA 45469-2314 [email protected] WSU March 1, 2007 Outline Climate change signals Climate models and projections Peak oil (and natural gas and coal) Will fossil fuel limits have an effect? Conclusion The Past Mean global temperature distribution Energy Balance “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m2 CO2 Record CO2 and CH4 concentration The Future Model scenario indicators Climate “Forcings” Model projections Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic? Energy and fossil fuels World energy use Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu Coal Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. Gas RE Biomass (13.4%) Nuclear Hydro Oil (34.9%) World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day US production peak US Production Gaussian Million barrels per year 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak 1500 1000 500 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year 2050 2100 Peak models – world production Billion barrels per year 40 USGS (BP + 50%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 BP reserves 5 0 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 Year Discovery vs. consumption Discovery and production World Reserves and R/P Corrected for OPEC R/P Ratio 1400 35 1200 34 1000 33 800 32 600 31 400 30 200 29 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 28 2010 R/P Ratio World reserves (Gb) BP Data Production and R/P Ratio 3500 14 3000 12 2500 10 2000 8 1500 6 1000 4 500 2 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 2010 R/P ratio Mb/d Great Britain Production Most Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030. Natural Gas National Petroleum Council (1998) US Prod. Import from Canada 1998 550 Bcm 90 Bcm 2010 725 Bcm 120 Bcm 2015 780 Bcm Now the numbers are more like … 1998 550 Bcm 2003 550 Bcm 2004 540 Bcm 2005 526 Bcm And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a decline of 2.5% per year Natural Gas in the US U.S. NG Data 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 25 20 15 10 5 1970 1980 (per day) 1990 2000 US Production (Bcf) Percentage of successful wells US Proven Reserves (Tcf) Henry Hub Prices ($/MMBtu) Number of wells drilled (thousands) EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data 0 2010 U.S. Coal Production 1200 30.00 1000 25.00 800 20.00 600 15.00 400 10.00 200 5.00 0 1950 1960 1970 Coal production 1980 1990 Energy content 2000 0.00 2010 Million Btu/ton Coal energy content (Quads) Total Production (million tons) US Coal Production, 1949-2004 U.S. Coal Production Lower quality coal Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html US Anthracite Production 120 Million tons/year 100 80 60 40 20 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 R/P for Coal 1993 – According to BP, reserves will last 250 years 2005 – According to BP, reserves will last 155 years 3% future growth (less than currently), reserves will last 65 years U.S. figures: 1939, 3800 years remaining; 1953, 1900 years; 1993, 300 years; 2005, 240 years left EROEI Tar sands Hydro Wind Energy output Energy input “Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” C. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782 Tar Sands Alberta, Canada Effectively a mining operation Current production of 106 b/d of synthetic crude oil Estimate ~3×106 b/d in 10 yrs., 5×106 b/d in 25 yrs. Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1 Oil Shale Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 106 b/d in 2025 EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1 Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab. Ethanol from Corn Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.3. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline – and can be worse if coal-generated electricity is used. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006) Fossil fuels and CO2 SRES - Oil A1 Scenarios A1B-AIM A1B-ASF 800 A1B-IMAGE A1B-MARIA Energy from oil (EJ) 700 A1B-MESSAGE A1B-MiniCAM 600 A1C-AIM 500 A1C-MESSAGE A1C-MiniCAM 400 A1G-AIM A1G-MESSAGE 300 A1F1-MiniCAM 200 A1T-AIM A1T-MESSAGE 100 0 1990 A1T-MARIA A1v1-MiniCAM 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 My 2010 peak My 2025 peak SRES - Oil B2 Scenarios 400 B2-AIM Energy from oil (EJ) 350 B2-ASF 300 B2-IMAGE 250 B2-MARIA B2-MESSAGE 200 B2-MiniCAM 150 B2C-MARIA 100 B2High-MiniCAM My 2010 peak 50 0 1990 My 2025 peak 2040 2090 SRES - NG NG and SRES Marker Scenarios NG Consumption, EJ/yr 600 500 A1 400 A2 B1 300 B2 My low 200 My medium My high 100 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Oil and CO2 40 4 35 3.5 30 3 25 2.5 20 2 15 1.5 10 1 5 0 1800 0.5 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0 2150 CO2 emissions (Gt C/a) World oil production (Gb/a) Oil production and CO2 Natural Gas and CO2 World NG consumption and CO2 from NG 180 2.5 2.0 140 EJ/year 120 100 1.5 y = 1.8477x - 3602.4 2 R = 0.9944 80 1.0 60 y = 0.0252x - 49.172 40 0.5 2 R = 0.9944 20 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0.0 2070 CO2 emissions (Gt C/yr) 160 Coal production CO2 emissions (GtC) 1% Grow th 2% Grow th 4% Grow th 6% Grow th 7 14 6 12 5 10 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 CO2 Emissions (GtC) Gt coal Coal and CO2 Total CO2 – Middle Scenarios 16 CO2 Emissions (GtC) 14 12 10 Coal CO2 8 NG CO2 Oil CO2 6 4 2 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Total anthropogenic carbon emissions a b Peak fossil fuel scenario Global Sea Level Changes Rahmstorf, Science (2007) Stop burning fossil fuels? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE Keep burning at same rate? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE Will climate change mitigation be costly? Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results