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Download NOAA Atlas 14 - Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
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2011 WAFSCM Annual Conference November 3, 2011 - Pewaukee Climate Change and Flooding in Wisconsin Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI Outline • Global Circulation (Climate) Models (GCMs) • WICCI findings based on statistical downscaling of GCMs • New findings based on Regional Circulation (Climate) Models (RCMs) • NOAA Atlas 14 • Storm transposition for vulnerability assessment General Circulation Models General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulate the effects of incoming and outgoing thermal radiation on global circulation, and include: Atmosphere Clouds Oceans Topography Rainfall etc. IPCC 2007 Dynamical Downscaling (Regional Circulation Models, RCMs) 6 RCMs driven by 4 GCMs North American domain Modern: 1970-2000 Future: 2038-2070 3-hourly output, Many variables (T, P, H, SM, etc.) 50 km horizontal resolution Climate Model Projections 20 GCMs Wisconsin domain Modern: 1950-2000 Future: 2001-2100 Statistical Downscaling of GCM output Daily output, Fewer variables (T, P, H?) 10 km horizontal resolution Wisconsin Initiative for Climate Change Impacts • Used 14 General Circulation Models (GCM’s) from IPCC 2007 assessment • Debiased and downscaled using historical Wisconsin weather station data • Result: a statistical range of potential climate change GCM grid Downscaled (8x8 km) grid Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts in Wisconsin D. Vimont, UW-Madison Temperature (°F) Change in average annual temp 1980 to 2055 Significant warming is projected Precipitation Change in annual average 1980 to 2055 (inches) Increase in 2” rainfalls 1980 to 2055 (days/decade) 1.25” to 2.25” and 2-3 days/decade = modest future increase Winter Precipitation 1980 to 2055 Increasing (water inches) Reduced Snowfall (%) Notaro et al. 2010 Precipitation as snow reduced by 20% by mid-century = 30% decrease in midwinter snow depth Increased Winter Rainfall Potter and Liebl, 2010 Increased Winter-Spring Flooding? More rain in winter +More intense rainfall = More high water events? = More groundwater recharge? Gordy Stephenson Cottle Vulnerability is already high during winter and spring DNR Quantile Projections: Madison 9 100-Year Recurrence Interval 24-hour Rainfall Depth (in) 8 7 6 5 4 2-Year Recurrence Interval 3 2 1961- 2000 2046 - 2065 2081 - 2100 Based on statistically downscaled data developed by Kucharik, Lorenz, Notaro, and Vimont, UW Madison. Large Uncertainty in Rainfall Projections Projected size of 100-year 24-hour storm for Madison, WI, based on 14 GCMs Schuster, et al Which 100-year event do you prefer ? 6”or 9” ? Wetter or drier in summer ? What about Regional Circulation Models (RCMs)? • Recently developed by North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) • 6 RCMs driven by 4 GCMs • North American domain • 1970-99; 2040-69 • 3-hourly output • 50 km resolution RCM 100-Year, 24-Hour Rainfalls for Madison 9 8 Depth inches 7 6 5 Observe d 4 3 2 1970-1999 2040-2069 RCM 100-Year, 24-Hour Rainfalls for Green Bay 8 7 Depth inches 6 5 Observed 4 3 2 1970-1999 2040-2069 RCM 100-Year, 24-Hour Rainfalls for Milwaukee 9 8 Depth inches 7 6 Observed 5 4 3 2 1970-1999 2040-2069 Quantile-Quantile Plots for Top 100 Daily RCM Rainfalls: Madison CCRM_ccsm HRM3_hadcm3 6 5 4 Modeled Rainfall (inches) Modelled Rainfall (imches) 5 4 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 Historical Rainfall (inches) 5 6 0 1 2 3 Historical Rainfall (inches ) 4 5 Quantile-Quantile Plots forTop 100 Daily Rainfalls: Green Bay HRM3_hadcm3 CRCM_ccsm 6 5 5 Modeled Rainfall (inches) Modeled Rainfall (inches) 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 Historical Rainfall (inches) 4 5 1 2 3 4 Historical (inches) 5 6 Quantile-Quantile Plots for Top 100 Daily Rainfalls: Milwaukee CRCM_ccsm HRM3_hadcm3 7 5 6 4 Modeled Rainfall (inches) Modeled Rainfall (inches) 5 3 2 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 Historical Rainfall (inches) 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Historical Rainfall (inches) 6 7 Quantile-Quantile Plot for Top 100 Daily Rainfalls: Milwaukee RCM3_gfdl 8 Modeled Rainfall (inches) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Historical Rainfall (inches) 7 8 What do others think about precipitation modeling? Science Magazine, October 2011: When the Seattle Public Utility asked University of Washington climate scientist Clifford Mass how big they should build the pipes in a $750M storm drainage system, he “couldn’t give them an answer.” And a University of Wisconsin professor… In the same Science article, University of Wisconsin Professor Greg Tripoli points out that global circulation models can’t “create the medium-size weather systems that they should be sending into any embedded regional model.” So what should we do about engineering design? Hydrologic design is based on experience. (i.e. history) The record we use may actually reflect a drier period (TP40, 1938-1958). Largest Daily Rainfall Madison, WI Mississippi River at Clinton 1 105 4 8 104 Discharge (cfs) 5 3 Rainfall (inches) 2 4 104 2 104 1 0 1860 6 104 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000 2020 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year Are we designing for historical climate? 1960 1980 2000 NOAA Atlas 14 Updating TP-40 Provides data for locations TP-40 vs. NOAA Atlas 14 Record Hourly Stations Daily Stations n Years (avg) 200 vs. 994 14 vs. 40 1350 vs. 2846 16 vs. 63 South Beloit. IL More stations Longer period of record Revised statistical method vs. TP-40 isohyetal maps NOAA Atlas 14 – Updated Design Storms Davis Todd, C.E., J.M Harbor, B. Tyner, Increasing Magnitudes and Frequencies of Extreme Precipitation Events Used for Hydraulic Analysis in the Midwest, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, (61)4:179-184, 2006 Davis Todd, et al 2006 NOAA Atlas 14 - a work in progress Midwest States - due late 2012 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/current_projects.html What else can we do, given GCM uncertainties? Storm transposition can be used to asses vulnerability? The 2008 storm in the Midwest could be used this way. Vulnerability assessment “Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities...” - WICCI Stormwater Working Group Assess: • Floodplains and surface flooding • At-risk road-crossings • Stormwater BMPs • Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration • Emergency response capacity • Wells and septic systems • Hazardous materials storage Building Long Term Resilience • Planning for impacts 25 or 50 years out is challenging • Adaptation to low-risk high-cost events requires political support • Can use simulations to understand high water impacts Conclusions • Rain event intensities will likely increase in WI due to climate change, but the modeling results do not provide a sufficient basis for engineering design. • Winter-spring precipitation changes appear to be better supported. Runoff implications need further study. Conclusions • NOAA Atlas 14 should be adopted statewide when available. • Storm transposition should be explored as a method of evaluating vulnerabilities and increasing resilience. Questions?