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Climate Change Mitigation 10th January 2006 2006年1月10日 Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv CRed HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director of CRed Project Climate Change Mitigation • • • • • The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues Hard Choices Ahead Carbon Reduction Good Practice Examples from UEA – – – – Elizabeth Fry ZICER CHP Adsorption Chilling • Conclusions Future Global Warming Rates Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere 380 370 (ppm) 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region – Nasa satellite imagery 2003 1979 •20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html Climate Change Mitigation • • • • • The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues Hard Choices Ahead Carbon Reduction Good Practice Examples from UEA – – – – Elizabeth Fry ZICER CHP Adsorption Chilling • Conclusions Difficult Choices Ahead Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002 14000 potential Nuclear contribution to Generating Capacity Electricity Supply in 2020 (p per kWh) Installed Capacity (MW) 12000 Gas CCGT 10000 68000 nuclear56000 fission (long term) 44000 40% and rising) Projection Actual 2 1 0 1955 ~ 2p + but recent trends put figure much higher 0 - 60% (France new inherently safe 80%) - (currently 20 designs - some practical - 25% and falling) development needed 3 nuclear2000 fusion available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade 0 - 80% Price (currently Wholesale of Electricity costs in 2020 unavailable Traditional 1975 1965 2.5 - 3.5p not available until 2040 at earliest Coal 2015 2005 1995 components 1985 Basic 2003 falling rapidly 2004 - available 2005 - not viable "Clean0Coal" coal supply Jan1 Apr Jul Oct Jancould Apr Jul Oct Jan without Apr25 Jul Carbon Oct 13 40 - 50% by 2020 Sequestration 2025 2035 2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect this Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in 2020 2020 and drivers/barriers ~ 2p On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial Resource exploitation Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p Hydro 5% - research to reduce costs. technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in 2020 2020 and drivers/barriers ~ 2p On Shore Wind Fuels: ~25% available now for commercial Transport Resource exploitation Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p • Biodiesel? - research to reduce costs. technically mature, but limited 2.5 - 3p Hydro• Bioethanol? 5% potential Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research needed 10+ p to bring down costs significantly Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed in some areas 2.5 - 4 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in 2020 2020 and drivers/barriers ~ 2p On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial Resource exploitation Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p - research to reduce costs. technically mature, but limited 2.5 - 3p Hydro 5% potential Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research needed 10+ p to bring down costs significantly Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed in 2.5 - 4 Wave/Tidal Stream Tidal Barrages 100% + techology limited - extensive 4 - 8p Geothermal some areas development unlikely before 2020 10 - 20% technology available but unlikely without Government intervention unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then not costed Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed on house in Norwich 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Thermal Performance - detached house in Norwich 8 Will save about 0.25 tonnes per year No automatic data data averaged 7 6 Net Solar Gain (kWhrs/day) No automatic data data averaged 5 4 3 2 1 0 08/02/04 22/02/04 07/03/04 21/03/04 04/04/04 18/04/04 02/05/04 16/05/04 30/05/04 From 27th Jan - 15th Sept 2004 average gain 3.16 kWh per day Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Micro CHP Heat Pumps Micro Wind Climate Change Mitigation • • • • • The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues Hard Choices Ahead Carbon Reduction Good Practice Examples from UEA – – – – Elizabeth Fry ZICER CHP Adsorption Chilling • Conclusions Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. Climate Change Mitigation • • • • • The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues Hard Choices Ahead Carbon Reduction Good Practice Examples from UEA – – – – Elizabeth Fry ZICER CHP Adsorption Chilling • Conclusions Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s • (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003 On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in Norfolk "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) Raising Awareness • Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances 80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles Involve the local Community • Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Results of the “Big Switch-Off” Target Day With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possible How can these be translated into long term savings? Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich • Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. • Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh • North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh • Kings Lynn and West Norfolk • Great Yarmouth 5908 kWh 5144 kWh • A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 66% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 22% of total demand) • Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year. • The alternative: • Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again • Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year. Electricity Consumption (TWh) Historic and Future Demand for Electricity 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static Electricity Options for the Future Low Growth Scenario Capped at 420 TWh Carbon Dioxide Emissions 250 • 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 68 % increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 • Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025 • Mix option: 11% increase in gas consumption (cf 2002) MTonnes CO 2 200 150 100 Actual Gas Nuclear Coal 40:20:40 Mix 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 High Growth Scenario Business as Usual 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. 350 300 Mtonnes CO2 • 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 257% increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 Actual Gas Nuclear Coal 40:20:40 Mix 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Climate Change Mitigation • • • • • The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues Hard Choices Ahead Carbon Reduction Good Practice Examples from UEA – – – – Elizabeth Fry ZICER CHP Adsorption Chilling • Conclusions Main Energy Conservation Projects at UEA • Constable Terrace/ Nelson Court Student Residences • Elizabeth Fry Building • Combined Heat and Power • School of Medicine • ZICER Building The Future • Absorption Chilling The Elizabeth Fry Building Principle of TermoDeck Operation Filter Supply duct to Incoming Air hollow core slabs Heater Exhaust Air Two channel regenerative heat exchanger Exhaust Air from rooms Floor Slabs Diffuser • Air is circulated through whole fabric of building • Uses regenerative Heat Exchangers ~ 85% efficient Principle of Operation Quadruple Glazing Thick Insulation Air circulates through whole fabric of building Mean Surface Temperature close to Air Temperature Elizabeth Fry Building – Key Facts • 180 mm insulation on walls • 300 mm roof insulation • 100 mm floor insulation • Triple glazing with Low E Glass ~ quadruple glazing • Air – Pressure Test at 50 Pa – not to exceed 1.0 ach Actual performance 0.97 ach Has deteriorated slightly since 1996 • Heated using a single domestic heating boiler (24 kW) • No heating needed at temperatures as cool as 8 - 9oC • 87% of ventilation heat recovered via regenerative Heat Exchangers. Performance of Elizabeth Fry Building Careful Monitoring and Analysis can reduce energy consumption Performance of Elizabeth Fry Building Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Space and Water Heating Actual Low Energy Normal kg CO2/ m2 / yr 5.8 34 41 User Satisfaction thermal comfort +28% air quality +36% lighting +25% noise +26% A Low Energy Building is also a better place to work in The ZICER Building Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental Research • “Termodeck” construction • 34 kW Photo Voltaic Array ZICER Construction Ducts in floor slab Performance of ZICER Building 2004 2005 EFry ZICER • Initially performance was poor • Performance improved with new Management Strategy Performance of ZICER Building Temperature of air and fabric in building varies little even on a day in summer (June 21st – 22nd 2005) Generation of Electricity with a Gas Engine 61% Flue Losses 3% Radiation Losses 36% efficient GAS Engine Generator 36% Electricity Combined Heat and Power at UEA 3% Radiation Losses 11% Flue Losses 81% efficient Exhaust Heat Exchanger GAS Reduces conversion losses significantly Engine Engine heat Exchanger 45% Heat Localised generation can make use of waste heat. Generator 36% Electricity Performance of CHP units Before installation 1997/98 electricity gas oil 19895 35148 33 MWh Total Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277 Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699 After installation 1999/ 2000 Electricity Heat Total CHP export import boilers CHP site generation MWh 20437 Emission kg/kWh factor Carbon Tonnes dioxide 15630 oil total 977 5783 14510 28263 923 -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277 -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422 This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer Normal Air-conditioning Adsorption Air-Conditioning Heat from external source Heat rejected High Temperature High Pressure Desorber Heat Compressor Exchanger Condenser Throttle Valve W~0 Evaporator Absorber Heat extracted for cooling • • • • Low Temperature Low Pressure Adsorption Heat pump uses Waste Heat from CHP Will provide most of chilling requirements in summer Will reduce electricity demand in summer Will increase electricity generated locally Legislation can help and hinder effective use of energy The method by which electricity is traded in the UK ( The BETTA System) has adversely affected viability of CHP in the UK. The European Union Emission Trading System has anomalies which hinder effective developments such as Adsorption Chilling. Building Regulations can hinder the building of most energy efficient buildings Performance of Elizabeth Fry and ZICER and Building Regulations Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index with Building Regulations Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index problems with current Building Regulations 20 70 pre-war 18 60 40 16 14 kg CO2 /m /yr 1976 30 1985 1990 1994 20 10 8 6 2002 10 2002 12 2 2 Theorectical Perfection in 2002 Regulations 1965 50 kg CO2 /m /yr Theorectical Perfection in 2002 Regulations 1955 Elizabeth Fry ZICER Elizabeth Fry ZICER 4 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Carbon Index 7 8 9 10 0 7 8 9 Carbon Index 10 Climate Change Mitigation • • • • • The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Issues Hard Choices Ahead Carbon Reduction Good Practice Examples from UEA – – – – Elizabeth Fry ZICER CHP Adsorption Chilling • Conclusions Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear??? • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Conclusions • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher