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Reclamation’s Role in Managing Western Water in Evolving Climate Conditions • Reclamation’s Mission • Observed Climate Changes • Managing Water in a Changing Climate Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor • Established in 1902, to promote settling and development of the west • Best known for 600 dams, powerplants, and canals it constructed in 17 western states. • Largest water wholesaler in the country • Second largest hydroelectric producer in the western United States. • Mission: assist in meeting the increasing water demands of the West while protecting the environment and the public's investment in these structures. Observed Hydrology & Vegetation Changes Less snow/more rain Earlier greenup Cayan et al., 2001 Less spring snowpack TRENDS (1950-97) in April 1 snow-water content at western snow courses Earlier snowmelt runoff Stewart et al., 2005 Mote, 2003 Figs. M. Dettinger (USGS) Implications for water supplies, water demands, operating constraints? • Supplies – warming • less snowpack less controllable water supply • more landscape evapotranspiration (ET) less runoff – precipitation change? could be + or - , help or worsen… • Demands – warming • Irrigation: increased seasonal water demand (longer season, more ET) • Electricity: increased summer demand, decreased winter demand • Operating Constraints – Environment – instream flow requirements? • Reduction in cold-water supplies – Flood Protection – storage reservation requirement? • All other things equal, warming leads to greater area contributing runoff during western winter storm events – greater winter reservoir drafts? • Storm intensification could be + or -, worsen or help… Key Challenges for Reclamation • Understand how climate variability and change can affect Western water supply and demand, and Reclamation delivery of water given operational constraints (i.e. environmental constraints, flood constraints) • Bring science and technology to bear on the needs of water resources managers • Address goals of internal programs and authorizations where climate change is a factor Reclamation Climate Studies 2009 SECURE Water Act (PL 111-11) • Federal agencies that conduct water management have a responsibility to take a lead role in assessing risks to the water resources and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies From USGS Circular 1331 (Brekke et al. 2009) • Climate Change and Water Working Group (CCAWWG): NOAA, USGS, USACE, EPA, NASA, FEMA collaboration • Climate change is occurring; effects differ regionally. • Water resources management could be affected; hydroclimate conditions becoming non-stationary. • Climate change is one of many challenges facing water managers. Secretarial Order 3289 and 3297 – WaterSMART • Establishes Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Climate Science Centers, and Basin Studies http://www.usbr.gov/climate Adjusted Framework needed for relating global climate change to local system… West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments (WWCRA) Hydrologic Projections (2011) http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html 112 Transient Hydrologic Projections covering western U.S.… SECURE Report to Congress, 2011 focus on median changes; future reports have broader scope Analyses of Periodchanges in climate and hydrology 8 “big basin” VIC hydrology model-apps from Univ. of WA… Data-service, Reclamation and broader public use (Summer 2011) http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/wwcra.html Technical Report, data-development (TSC 86-68210, March 2011) Peer Review 112 Transient Climate Projections… Colorado River Annual Max. Week Runoff, kcfs Annual Max Weekly Runoff Change Through Time 2020s Temp Colorado River above Imperial Dam 150 100 50 1950 2000 2050 2100 Precip Water Year • Flood Control Implications Annual Min. Week Runoff, kcfs Annual Min Weekly Runoff Colorado River above Imperial Dam Snow 10 8 6 1950 2000 2050 2100 Water Year • Environmental Flow Implications HUGE CAVEAT – e.g. calibration, validation 2050s 2070s 2070s-1990s http://www.usbr.gov/climate 2050s-1990s 2020s-1990s SECURE Report: Westwide Impacts (e.g. annual and seasonal runoff) annual Dec-Mar Apr-Jul SECURE Water Future Work • Analyze demands utilizing legacy tools with climate projections • Put activities within broader context of scenario planning (similar to CO Basin Study Approach). • Include AR5 climate projections. • Next Secure Water report due in 2016 (every 5 years) Sector Impacts • • • • • • http://www.usbr.gov/climate Hydropower Ecological Resiliency Endangered Species Recreation Water Deliveries Water Quality Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Annual Colorado River Water Supply & Use Water Supply Scenarios * Water Demand Scenarios * Observed Resampled: Current Trends: future hydrologic trends and variability will be similar to the past 100 years growth, development patterns, and institutions continue along recent trends Paleo Resampled: Economic Slowdown: future hydrologic trends and variability are represented by the distant past (approximately 1250 years) low growth with emphasis on economic efficiency Paleo Conditioned: economic resurgence (population and energy) and current preferences toward human and environmental values * future hydrologic trends and variability are represented by a blend of the wet dry states of the paleo-climate record but magnitudes are more similar to the observed period Downscaled GCM Projected: future climate will continue to warm with regional precipitation trends represented through an ensemble of future GCM projections * Preliminary – Subject to change Expansive Growth: Enhanced Environment and Healthy Economy: expanded environmental awareness and stewardship with growing economy* * Additional “branches” possible depending upon assumed trajectory of specific socio-economic factors. Integration of Supply and Demand Scenarios Water Supply Scenarios (multiple realizations for each scenario) Recent Trends Water Demand Scenarios Recent Trends Climate indexing for demands Addressing an Uncertain Future • The path of major influences on the Colorado River system is uncertain and can not be represented by a single view • An infinite number of plausible futures exist • A manageable and informative number of scenarios are being developed to explore the broad range of futures Scenario Funnel Thank You Questions?