Download Climate Change in the Caribbean: Water, Agriculture and Forestry

Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)
Issue Paper (DRAFT)
Climate Change in the Caribbean:
Water, Agriculture, Forestry
Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty
University of Colorado and
NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center
Boulder CO 80305
• Background
• Water Resources in the Caribbean: an overview
• Agriculture, Food Security and Forestry in the Caribbean
• Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change
in the Caribbean
• Impacts on Water Resources
• Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security
• Approaches to Adaptation: Integrating climate and
natural resources assessments under a decisionoriented framework
Appendices
APPENDIX B. Climate and APPENDIX A: Water and Climate
Dialogue Summary Statements
Food Security: Implications for Research and Policy
APPENDIX C. IWCAM Summary statements
APPENDIX D. Climate and agricultural applications in the
Caribbean: A case study of climate information use in sugar
production in Trinidad (summary)
Three questions under the MACC framework:
(1) Are planning strategies for water, agricultural
and forest resources in the Caribbean
supported by the climate record?
(2) What additional pressures will be placed on
these resources as a result of projected
climatic variability and change?
(3) What practical strategies may be engaged to
reduce vulnerability and enhance social,
economic and ecological resilience?
Characteristics of small island environments
• Ecological/environmental
• Geographical
• Socio-economic
• Historical and political
Climate change projections for the Caribbean region
Trends
• Avg. annual air temp 1 F
• Sea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrs
• Generally drier conditions
Scenarios for Future Climate
• 2-3 C
• Drier mid-year, wetter end of year
• Ocean surface warming
• Salt water intrusion into freshwater
• Some models suggest more persistent ENSO-like conditions and less but
more intense more intense tropical storms (5-10% windspeed)
Changes in the total amount of precipitation and in its frequency and
intensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and the
intensity of floods and droughts; however, at present, specific
regional effects are uncertain
The impacts of climate change will depend on the baseline conditions
of the water supply system and the ability of water resource
managers to respond not only to climate change but also to
population growth and changes in demands, technology, and
economic, social and legislative conditions
Note: the latter are also “baseline” conditions
Where does climate variability
come from?
• NAO
• TA
• ENSO
Trinidad Monthly Rainfall 1997 and 1998
450
400
350
300
250
mm
Mean
PPT97
PPT98
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Sugar-industry operations chain
Cane cultivation
•Planting schedule
•Pesticide and
herbicide applications
•IPM application
•Irrigation timing
•Runoff/erosion control
•Fire management
•
Harvest operations
and transport
•Initiation of harvest
•Completion of harvest
•Selective harvesting
•Road repair
•Soil compaction and
field conditions
•Fire management
Milling and
Sugar production
Marketing and
Shipping
•Milling initiation
•Cane and
sugar storage
Secondary economies impact, minimizing
environmental impacts, land-use/settlements
•Likelihood of
meeting quota
•Shipping timing
(delays etc)
• storage
requirement
Tonnes sugarcane per hectare for CARICOM countries 1961-1996
110
Barbados
90
Belize
80
Guyana
70
Jamaica
60
St. Kitts
50
Trinidad
40
30
Year
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
20
1960
tonnes cane/ha
100
Year
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
1951
1946
1941
1936
1931
1926
1921
1916
1911
1906
1901
inches
Puerto Rico Rainfall 13mth and 109 mth (9year) moving average
9
8
7
6
5
4
Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of global sea surface temperature(SST) 1870-2000.
(A) spatial correlations between first EOF and Atlantic SSTs; (B) temporal reconstruction of
variability averaged over the rectangle in A (Goldenberg et all 2001)
Caribbean hurricane tracks and strength during (A) warm and
(B) cold Atlantic multidecadal modes
• The question remains “ Can we produce reliable
baselines for planning give the large amount of
year to year and decade to decade variations in
the Caribbean?”
• Need for careful monitoring and inventory of
critical variables and indicators (available and
gaps)
• Need for “upscaling” local climate/met./hydro
data and experience as well as “downscaling”
models (precision vs. accuracy)
…viewed from Sectors
Agriculture
&
silviculture
Urban
Development
Ecosystem &
Land Use
Management
Health &
Disease
Mineral &
Fossil Fuel
Extraction
Water &
Sustainability
Conservation
& Biodiversity
Recreation
and more…
Integrated Water Resource Assessments
Assessment of biophysical impacts on:
• hydrologic resources,
• water quality, and
• aquatic ecosystem integrity.
Assessment of socio-economic impacts on:
• demand from market water use sectors, and
• water resources management systems
Water resources adaptations
Supply adaptation:
• modification of existing physical infrastructure;
• construction of new infrastructure; and
• alternative management of the existing water
supply systems
Demand adaptation:
• conservation and improved efficiency;
• technological change; and
• market/price-driven transfers to other activities.
Table 2.
Renewab le Water Resources in Se lectedCa ribbean S tates
Countries
Internal r enewable water
resources perca pita (cubic
metres peryea r), 2000.
Belize
69565
Barbados
303
Antigu a yBa rbuda
770
Domin ica
.
Grenad a
.
Guyana
281542
Jamaica
3640
Trinidad
3869
Haiti
1,473
Wor ldTo tal
7,122
Source: UNDP, 2000 : Table 21,p.231 -234.
Trends and conditioning factors
• Unit(s) of analysis: Upstream-downstream,
watershed, urban
• Relevant hydro-climatic variables: data,qc, uncertainties
• Demands : Scale, trends and criticality
• Reliability of supply and distribution
• Separation of regulatory and operational responsibilities
• Integration of water quantity and quality
• Security of rights
• Incorporation of climate issues in existing networks priorities and
policies
• Post-audits of past events and technical interventions
-
if we did or are doing everything possible why did it work or not work?
Established frameworks for water allocation:
national level
• Legal basis- water rights, legal/regulatory framework
• Institutional base-Govt. and Non-govt. Mandates,responsibilities and
practices
• Technical base-monitoring, assessment, decision support modeling
• Financial and economic aspects-costs/benefits,pricing trading
• Participation
• Structural and development base-water supply and operations, users
If so…………
………So
what
Optimizing the net social benefit
• Difficulty in dealing with all related social aims of water/natural
resource uses
• Difficulty in forging agreed-upon criteria for program evaluation
• Lack of progress in comprehensive integrated management and in
coordinating watersheds plans
• Lack of comprehensive assessments of projects and initiatives
“Sufficient, reliable data are not available or shared
at present to undertake a thorough analysis of the
multiple threats to water resources, forestry, or food
security”
e.g. water consumption rates (availability per capita) and
access to network water and sanitation facilities: changing
levels of domestic water use, deterioration? Of piped water,
tourism, costs of obtaining water
IWCAM…
• Institutional mechanisms must be put in place at
the national and regional level, to undertake the
regular dissemination of user-friendly information
on such technologies as well as to assist with the
training of nationals in the use of such technology
• Introduction of incentives to encourage the use of
appropriate
What does “capacity building” mean in this context?
….viewed from Information chain
Improved
Decision
Process
••Framing
the
question
Climate
Network
Types
Place-based
Dialog,
ofnot
simulations
design
models
two
and
Distributed
••Synthesis
tools
&
Platforms
Scale
sector-based
monologues
scenarios
dissemination
••Data
assimilation
&
• User
Social
Appropriate
Temporal
oriented
trendsmix of
• New
technologies
visualization
•
Demographics
• Scenarios
observations
• Spatial and
•• Complexity
models
Energy
use
• probabilistic
Quality
Performance
assurance
Interactive
•• Scenario
Land usedevelopment
and
metrics
outcomes
control
and
testing
• Institutions
User friendly
Synthesis
••Understanding
• Policies
•methodologies
Flexible
• Laws
••Place-based
Values
• Politics
Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of waterrelated Ministries and organizations to identify pathways
for decision-making
1.
Establishing and consolidate a viable scientific basis for
water resources management sector and for (inter)national
(water) policies
2. Initiating a multi-stakeholder process that builds the
knowledge to cope with climate variability and change.
3. Building and share knowledge and information by bridging
climate variability/change and water communities
4. Raising awareness of the issues relating climate and water,
and broaden scientific, political and water managers
participation in the discussion
Poten tial matrixo f responsibi lities within agenc ies, p riva te and commun itypa rtners
________________________________________________________________________
Publi c and Priva te Agenc ies and Organi zations
Tasks
Water & Met.
Agricu lture Health Nat. Others
Sewerage Servic es Agribu siness
Res.
_______________________________________________________________________
Water Supply
Sani tation
Irrigation
Flood Cont rol
Recreation
Watershed Managem ent
Ports
Qual ity (Pollu tion )
Groundw ater manag emen t
Instreamm anage ment
Othe r…
________________________________________________________________________
Understand Current Vulnerability and Assess Trends
• Effects Related to Altered Resources
• Characterize the Risk of Climatic Variations and Review Past
and Potential Responses
• National Food Balance
• Institutional Development
• Household Food Poverty
• Income Components
• Cultural Preferences
• Demography
• Individual Food Deprivation
• Nutritional Status
• Health Status
• Social Status: Three pillars of food security: food production,
economic access to available food, and nutritional security
Which group(s) really maintain these pillars?
Developing effective decision environments
(a role for C5)
Establish Regional Climate and Natural Resources Roundtables
(which also provide for data sharing)
• Serve as a clearinghouse mechanism for promoting, initiating and
facilitating climate change programs and policies;
• Review national strategies for enhancing the objectives of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change and advising government
on the way forward
Such Roundtables should:
• Evaluate options, information, and technology and to examine the
sectors that will most benefit from these inputs among existing
institutions
• Explore the feasibility of establishing a regional plan of action to
identify and adapt, where appropriate, successful examples of water
conservation and watershed programs;
• Identify entry points for information at different levels of governance
(not just information provision)
Indeterminate
Long-term
Climate and cross-scale watershed issues:
Linear vs. Adaptive management
Decade
Year
Seasonal
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
Household-municipalNational
Parish/County
Global
Regional
Developing prototypes or pilot studies for climate
impacts assessments
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Select the exposure unit (usually at the watershed)
Define the study area and critical issue
Determine general data availability and adequacy
Select a time horizon
Identify trends and influences on trend for critical issues
Identify a preliminary range of adaptations
Determine the need for integration across sectors
Problem-orientation
• Do we really know how we adjust to drought condtions?
….viewed from Information chain
How do we effectively
integrate these two?……
Improved
Decision
Process
••Framing
the
question
Climate
Network
Types
Place-based
Dialog,
ofnot
simulations
design
models
two
and
Distributed
••Synthesis
tools
&
Platforms
Scale
sector-based
monologues
scenarios
dissemination
••Data
assimilation
• User
Social
Appropriate
Temporal
oriented
trendsmix &of
• New
technologies
visualization
•
Demographics
• Scenarios
observations
• Spatial and
•• Complexity
Energyassurance
usemodels
• probabilistic
Quality
Performance
Interactive
•• Scenario
Land usedevelopment
and
metrics
outcomes
andcontrol
testing
• Institutions
User
friendly
Synthesis
••Understanding
• Policies
•methodologies
Flexible
• Laws
••Place-based
Values
• Politics
Differing perspectives on the Use of Climate Information
Between Scientists and Wa ter Managers
Factor
Identif ying a critical issue
Time fr ame
Goals
Basis for Decisions
Expectation
Scientist’s Perspective
Based on a b road
und erstanding o f t he n ature
of water ma nagement
Indefinit e
Prediction
Explanation
Understanding o f natural
system
Generali zing multiple facts
and obs ervations
Use of s cie ntifi c
procedures, me thod s
Availabilit y of research
fund ing
Understanding
Ongo ing improvement
(project never actuall y
comple te)
Statistical signi fic ance of
results
Product Cha racteristics
Complex
Scientif ically defensible
Frame
Physical (atmospheric)
condi tions as drivers
Dependen t on s cientific
discipli ne
Conceptual
Nature of U se
Water Manag er’s
Perspective
Based on exp erience of
partic ular, urgent
circumstance
Immediate
Optimiz ation o f
multiple condi tions and
minim ization o f ri sk
Tradit ion
Procedure
Profe ssional judg me nt
Training
Econo mi cs
Poli tic s
Accuracy of
information
Appropria te
methodology
Precision
Save mon ey, time
Protect the pub li c
As simple as possible
wit hout losing accuracy
Importance of c ontext
Safe ty, well being
Profit
Cons istency with
institutional cult ure
Appli ed
Approaches to risk communication and associated
assumptions
___________________________________________________________________________
Approach
Assumptions and actions
Development and
delivery of a risk message
From the risk expert to the public--finite and
uni-directional
Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views
Assumes expert view has more validity for decisionmaking
Dialogue about risk
Interactive exchange of risk information--continuous
Aimed at balancing the content of risk message
Assumes both views contribute to decision-making
Social processes
of risk communication
Engage in a process that addresses concerns about risk
Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders
(DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process
is as important as the product
__________________________________________________________________________
___
i.e. more than a one-way or even two-way street
Link pilots to strong institutional mechanisms: Realizing
implementation
• Past recommendations and interventions: How
effective were they? What criteria are used for
evaluation?
• Not simply communicating after project is over
Involving local organizations in planning and
implementation
• Partnerships (not just stakeholder assessments)
• How is the common interest pursued and secured?
Where and why have particular local organizations
been successful and sustained?
Mainstreaming……..
• What partnerships need to be engaged? What activities already exist?
• Goals of participants: What is being valued?
(by “experts and role of experts”, state agencies, NGOs, local
communities) Whose agenda are we agreeing on?
• Trends: Robustness: choice, inventory and baselines
• Conditioning factors: reconstructing influences on events, past
interventions
• Projections (scenarios and uncertainties)
• Alternatives: acting under uncertain information
• Pathways to decision-making: ,data, methods,Entry points: salience,
legitimacy, acceptability, context
How does innovation occur?
Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation in
water resources agencies
Y= f(Xi)
Xi = (compatibility of innovation with needs
and values
.capacity and characteristics
.1/complexity of innovation
.communicability within agency
.communication networks outside
(incl. other resources and other
national water agencies)
.% of initial innovators
.investment in innovation
Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation Y= f(Xi)
Xi =
.observability in practice:who is else is involved?
.evaluation of support tools:DSS,pricing
(transfer of tested and untested approaches)
.respect conferred)