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Engineering Design and Climate: Change and Variability Ana P. Barros March 7, 2005 1. Back to the early 20th century… (engineering thinking) Climate variability – refining the concept From periods to cycles of varying periodicity to modes of variability and nonstationary Space-Time Variability and Interconnectedness (the missing science piece) Design Implications 2. Practice, Science, Risk Assessment and Man-Made Change (engineering doing) 3. Design for the Future (engineering renaissance) Water Resources Management and Engineering Paradigm “We the Governors of the States and Territories of the United States of America, in Conference assembled, do hereby declare the conviction that the great prosperity of our country rests upon the abundant resources of the land chosen……..” “These natural resources include the land on which we live…. The living waters which fertlize the soil, supply power, and form great avenues of commerce…..The forests …..” “We recognize in our waters a most valuable asset of the People of the United States…… enactment of laws … irrigation, water supply, power production, navigation, to the end that navigable and source streams may be brought under control complete and be fully utilized for every purpose” Declaration of the Conservation Conference, May 15, 1908 The beginning of the race … “Is it possible that climatic oscillations can exist alone (with no effect upon anything else) ? … So far, we are completely in the dark as the plotting of meteorological observations alone will not determine it.” Brückner, 1890 “For instance, a sharp controversy has raged for several years between States bordering on the Great Lakes and the City of Chicago ..cause Abnormally low lake levels…The question is whether the recurring variations in lake level are another of the …climatic cycle established by Brückner.” Streiff, 1926 Chronology … Huntington, 1914 (tree rings) ……… Streiff, 1926 (Nile floods, nonstationary) Streiff, 1928 ………. Shuman, 1931 (lake levels) ……… Gilette, 1935 (rainfall) ……… What they were saying…. “ Most of our park systems drive-ways, and roads of all types for auto travel, in the various States, have been completed within the past 30 years, namely, beginning at the very lowest point of our climatic swing (1900 and 1910). There is every reason to believe, therefore, as the next 20 years comes on apace, we will witness considerable damage to work done during this past regime of weather.” Jesse W. Shuman, C.E Monthly Weather Review, June 1931 “..It would seem as though the mean annual levels of Lake Ontario Were due for an oscillating reduction (first, high, then lower, but generally downward) for a few years, then an upward trend till 1940…” Shuman, 1931 The prediction …. “We are in the middle of one of those long dry periods in history, which in old times caused famines migrations and wars. averaged by decades, rainfall in general will be subnormal for about 40 years.” Gillete, June1935 (AMS) Water Works and Sewage, August 1935 Andover Oxford 70-80 years “The design of works for control of water requires the estimate of future runoff. This is usually done by taking the probability of occurrence a priori equal to that a posteriori, which procedure often based on short records often does not take into consideration the oscillations in precipitation which occur. A better procedure is to analyze these trends and oscillations and to estimate their extrapolation for such length of time as may be involved in the project under consideration.” Abraham Streiff, C. E. Monthly Weather Review, March 1928 1. Back to the early 20th century… (engineering thinking) 2. Practice, Science, Risk Assessment and Man-Made Change (engineering doing) Predictability and Uncertainty Precipitation, Runoff “Extremes” Adaptation 3. Design for the Future (engineering renaissance) Precipitation Processes Clausius-Clapeyron Equation vapor pressure saturation vapor pressure Clouds ??? (3) e Evaporation Heating (2) Td (1) T Temperature (T) Cooling / Lifting Rainfall Freshwater Resources EvapoTranspiration Evaporation Precipitation 70% 10% Runoff Soil Moisture Blue Green Virtual Report of the Water Sector Assessment Team of the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change September 2000 http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov Evidence… •There is evidence of historical trends of both increasing and decreasing precipitation in different parts of North America since 1900. The intensity of precipitation has increased for very heavy and extreme precipitation days. •Vegetation is blooming earlier in spring and summer and continuing to photosynthesize longer in the fall (medium confidence). •The flood related consequences of climate change may be as serious and widely distributed as the adverse impacts of droughts and there is more evidence now that flooding is likely to become a larger problem in many temperate regions, requiring adaptations not only to droughts and chronic water shortages, but also to floods and associated damages, raising concerns about dam and levee failure.” Vegetation and Hydrologic Resilience San Joaquin Valley 3000 BC Cedars of Lebanon Precipitation Soil Vegetation Runoff Fraction Vegetation Control Monongahela River Basin 1988 Drought April-August Soil Water Control Evaporative Fraction May 13, 2001 Photo-Op with the the president of the ANEEL The energy crisis: What went wrong Hydroclimatology…. Reservoirs Rainfall SON DJF MAM JJA Spring Fall Summer “Winter” Time Hydrometeorological Asymmetry….. (Land Controls on Space-Time Variability) Streamflow = Surface Runoff + Subsurface Runoff +Baseflow Shifts in Seasonality ….. Summer Rainfall Fall Rainfall Evapotranspiration Rainfall Intensity Subsurface Runoff Temperature Diurnal Cycle Reservoirs Prediction… 1) Uncertainty of fact Prediction… 2) Mandelbrot uncertainty Observations Joseph effect *Low-Frequency Analysis *Noah Effect Joseph Effect 1950 1970 Pe=1: 15,000 years Multifractals as Design Alternative to Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation with known Risk Douglas and Barros, 2003 Pe=1: 1 million years Noah Effect Multifractals And Small Dam Design Current Best Practice Estimate Known Risk Global Warming and Uncertainty Noah (?) , Joseph (?), Noah-Joseph (?) Effect State (higher-order moments) Tails Mean 1. Back to the early 20th century… (engineering thinking) Climate variability – refining the concept From periods to cycles of varying periodicity to modes of variability and nonstationary Space-Time Variability and Interconnectedness (the missing science piece) Design Implications 2. Practice, Science, Risk Assessment and Man-Made Change (engineering doing) 3. Design for the Future (engineering renaissance) Recommendations…. A continued reliance solely on current engineering practice may lead us to make incorrect – and potentially dangerous or expensive – decisions. These systems were designed and for the most part are operated assuming that future climatic and hydrologic conditions will look like past conditions. Accordingly, two of the most important coping strategies must be to try to understand what the consequences of climate change will be for water resources and to begin planning for and adapting to those changes. It is vital that uncertainties not be used to delay or avoid taking certain kinds of action now. Water managers and policymakers must start considering climate change as a factor in all decisions about water investments and the operation of existing facilities and systems. (Barros and Evans, 1996) Challenges and Opportunities Paradigm Shifts… •Control ---- Management •Reactive (static) ---- Adaptive (dynamic) Design •Modeling - - - Monitoring •Inter/Transdisciplinarity •Complex Multiscale Dynamical Systems Science & Technology •Understanding (new science) •Methodologies and Metrics •Space-Time Observations (from Remote Sensing) •Computational Power •Information Technology Engineering is a “Process” …. *Monitoring (data) *Analysis Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle at spatial and temporal scales needed to detect change in the dynamics of limiting physics; * Synthesis, Integration & Adaptation Resilient Design Embraces Variability