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The Critical Path
Energy System Decarbonization
Stephen Stretton
Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for
Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR)
http://www.4cmr.org
Founder, Cambridge Zero Carbon Society
http://www.zerocarbonnow.org
2nd June 2009
Contents
Energy System Decarbonization
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•
Why?
Terminology
Carbon
Rough Numbers for UK (Physics)
Land
Cost
Rough Numbers for UK (Economics)
The Critical Path
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Why?
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Why? Energy demand is rising rapidly
Energy Demand (GW)
45,000
40,000
Reference Scenario
35,000
Fast Economic Growth - A1T
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Notes
•
All energy (not just electricity) is expressed in terms of GigaWatts (GW)*.
•
1 Gigawatt = 0.75 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent per year = 8.8 Terawatt-Hours per Year
•
1 Gigawatt is the usual size of a nuclear power station or large coal power plant
* In agreement with the recommendations from the Royal Commission for Environmental Pollution
Sources: Reference Scenario, IEA (2004) World Energy Outlook; A1T Scenario IEA (2003) Energy to 2050
World Energy Consumption By Fuel
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World Electricity By Fuel Type
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Why?
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Carbon: Terminology
Carbon Emissions
Per Person Per Year
(tonnes CO2eq)
High Carbon
~10
Lower Carbon
4
Low Carbon
2
Ultra-low Carbon
1
Zero Carbon
0
Negative Carbon
<0
*Imports of embodied energy not included
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Technology: Terminology
Technology
LCA
gCO2eq/kwh
High Carbon Coal
~1000
Lower
Carbon
Gas
~400
Low Carbon
CCS
~150
Ultra-low
Carbon
Renewables & Nuclear?
~5 to ~50
Zero Carbon (Decarbonize Lifecycle Costs) ~0
Negative
Carbon
Reforestation
Biomass with CCS
Air capture
<0
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Carbon: All Electricity
Technologies
Source:
Parliamentary
Office of Science
and Technology
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‘LowCarbon’
Tech.
CSD
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Physics Rough Numbers
Total
Per Person
Carbon Emissions
600million tCO2/yr +
Imports
10 tCO2/yr
Energy
Consumption
300GW
5kW
Electricity
Consumption
~45GW
1kW
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Land
See
www.withouthotair.com
Energy
Source
Density
MWavg/km2
Biomass
~0.5
Wind
~2-3
CSP
~15
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Do Everything… to Save the Planet!
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Unit Costs p per kWh
Levelized Costs pence per kWh
8.0
Waste & Decommissioning
Carbon Cost
Fuel Cost
O&M Costs
Investment Costs
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Coal (PC)
Gas
Nuclear
£2bn/GW
Nuclear £3bn/GW
Onshore Wind Offshore Wind
Coal CCS
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Economics Numbers
Total
Per Person
GDP
£1.2trillion/yr
£20,000/yr
Public Spending
£500billion/yr
£8,000/yr
Market Value of
Houses etc
£7trillion
£100,000
National Debt
£700billion
£12,000
Other Liabilities
Old nukes / PFI / Pensions /
Banks
~£500billion?
£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn
£9,000
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Fiscal Reform
1. Tax ‘bads’
2. Remove tax on ‘goods’
3. Tax ‘rent’
• Fossil fuels are both a ‘bad’ and
a ‘rent’
• So “change VAT to CAT”
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Investment Cost & Tax Revenue
• UK needs 300GW to sustain current energy
use. 1GW costs ~£2bn.
• £600bn cost = 50% of one year’s GDP
– UK energy spend ~£100bn on energy each year
– Cost of Trident £40bn total
• £100/tCO2 (10p/kgCO2) would
–
–
–
–
–
–
Add £50 to a barrel of oil
4p/kWh on gas
10p/kWh on coal
23p/litre on petrol
Raise £60bn/yr initially
£1000 citizens income or replace VAT
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Discussion Points
• How do we scale up renewable R&D by a large factor &
coordinate internationally?
• How fast can we build a super-grid with CSP?
• Does doing one technology prevent us from doing another?
Are possible supply chain shortages ‘across’ technologies
or ‘within’ technologies
• If the cost of high and low carbon are the same, is there any
financial limit on what we can do? Does tackling climate
change then cost anything at all?
• If new technology costs more, is there a limited ‘pot’ of
subsidy to be allocated to most promising technology?
• Can ‘inflexible’ technologies promote a path to electric-car
charging, leading to further intermittent renewable power
being easily integrated?
• Market Incentives (19th Century Railways) or State
Intervention (20th Century Wars) or Both?
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Carbonomics meets Freakonomics…
Total
Per Person
Carbon Emissions
600million tCO2/yr + Imports 10 tCO2/yr
Energy Consumption
300GW
5kW
Electricity
Consumption
~50GW
1kW
Land Area
?
?
GDP
£1.2trillion/yr
£20,000/yr
Public Spending
£500billion/yr
Market Value of
Houses etc
£7trillion
£100,000
National Debt
£700billion
£12,000
Other Liabilities
Old nukes / PFI / Pensions /
Banks
~£500billion?
£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn
£9,000
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Conclusions: The Critical Path
1.
2.
3.
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5.
6.
7.
8.
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11.
12.
Public Understanding and Proposed Policy
Skills and Capacity Building
Govt Guarantee Carbon & Electricity Prices
Secure Finance e.g. with ‘Climate Bonds’
Start Energy Efficiency Rollout
Build Energy Infrastructure
Fiscal Reform: ‘VAT to CAT’
Strategy transfer around the world
Switch Transportation
Complete Decarbonization of Britain and other countries
Reforest the world
Permanently avoid fossil fuel extraction
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Thanks for your attention!
Contact me:
Stephen Stretton
[email protected]
Links:
http://www.4cmr.org
http://www.withouthotair.com
http://www.zerocarbonnow.org
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