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Transcript
The Critical Path
Energy System Decarbonization
Stephen Stretton
Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for
Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR)
http://www.4cmr.org
Founder, Cambridge Zero Carbon Society
http://www.zerocarbonnow.org
2nd June 2009
Contents
Energy System Decarbonization
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Why?
Terminology
Carbon
Rough Numbers for UK (Physics)
Land
Cost
Rough Numbers for UK (Economics)
The Critical Path
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Why?
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Why? Energy demand is rising rapidly
Energy Demand (GW)
45,000
40,000
Reference Scenario
35,000
Fast Economic Growth - A1T
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Notes
•
All energy (not just electricity) is expressed in terms of GigaWatts (GW)*.
•
1 Gigawatt = 0.75 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent per year = 8.8 Terawatt-Hours per Year
•
1 Gigawatt is the usual size of a nuclear power station or large coal power plant
* In agreement with the recommendations from the Royal Commission for Environmental Pollution
Sources: Reference Scenario, IEA (2004) World Energy Outlook; A1T Scenario IEA (2003) Energy to 2050
World Energy Consumption By Fuel
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World Electricity By Fuel Type
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Why?
7 of 15
Carbon: Terminology
Carbon Emissions
Per Person Per Year
(tonnes CO2eq)
High Carbon
~10
Lower Carbon
4
Low Carbon
2
Ultra-low Carbon
1
Zero Carbon
0
Negative Carbon
<0
*Imports of embodied energy not included
8 of 15
Technology: Terminology
Technology
LCA
gCO2eq/kwh
High Carbon Coal
~1000
Lower
Carbon
Gas
~400
Low Carbon
CCS
~150
Ultra-low
Carbon
Renewables & Nuclear?
~5 to ~50
Zero Carbon (Decarbonize Lifecycle Costs) ~0
Negative
Carbon
Reforestation
Biomass with CCS
Air capture
<0
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Carbon: All Electricity
Technologies
Source:
Parliamentary
Office of Science
and Technology
10 of 15
‘LowCarbon’
Tech.
CSD
11 of 15
Physics Rough Numbers
Total
Per Person
Carbon Emissions
600million tCO2/yr +
Imports
10 tCO2/yr
Energy
Consumption
300GW
5kW
Electricity
Consumption
~45GW
1kW
12 of 15
Land
See
www.withouthotair.com
Energy
Source
Density
MWavg/km2
Biomass
~0.5
Wind
~2-3
CSP
~15
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Do Everything… to Save the Planet!
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Unit Costs p per kWh
Levelized Costs pence per kWh
8.0
Waste & Decommissioning
Carbon Cost
Fuel Cost
O&M Costs
Investment Costs
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Coal (PC)
Gas
Nuclear
£2bn/GW
Nuclear £3bn/GW
Onshore Wind Offshore Wind
Coal CCS
17 of 15
Economics Numbers
Total
Per Person
GDP
£1.2trillion/yr
£20,000/yr
Public Spending
£500billion/yr
£8,000/yr
Market Value of
Houses etc
£7trillion
£100,000
National Debt
£700billion
£12,000
Other Liabilities
Old nukes / PFI / Pensions /
Banks
~£500billion?
£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn
£9,000
18 of 15
Fiscal Reform
1. Tax ‘bads’
2. Remove tax on ‘goods’
3. Tax ‘rent’
• Fossil fuels are both a ‘bad’ and
a ‘rent’
• So “change VAT to CAT”
19 of 15
Investment Cost & Tax Revenue
• UK needs 300GW to sustain current energy
use. 1GW costs ~£2bn.
• £600bn cost = 50% of one year’s GDP
– UK energy spend ~£100bn on energy each year
– Cost of Trident £40bn total
• £100/tCO2 (10p/kgCO2) would
–
–
–
–
–
–
Add £50 to a barrel of oil
4p/kWh on gas
10p/kWh on coal
23p/litre on petrol
Raise £60bn/yr initially
£1000 citizens income or replace VAT
20 of 15
Discussion Points
• How do we scale up renewable R&D by a large factor &
coordinate internationally?
• How fast can we build a super-grid with CSP?
• Does doing one technology prevent us from doing another?
Are possible supply chain shortages ‘across’ technologies
or ‘within’ technologies
• If the cost of high and low carbon are the same, is there any
financial limit on what we can do? Does tackling climate
change then cost anything at all?
• If new technology costs more, is there a limited ‘pot’ of
subsidy to be allocated to most promising technology?
• Can ‘inflexible’ technologies promote a path to electric-car
charging, leading to further intermittent renewable power
being easily integrated?
• Market Incentives (19th Century Railways) or State
Intervention (20th Century Wars) or Both?
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Carbonomics meets Freakonomics…
Total
Per Person
Carbon Emissions
600million tCO2/yr + Imports 10 tCO2/yr
Energy Consumption
300GW
5kW
Electricity
Consumption
~50GW
1kW
Land Area
?
?
GDP
£1.2trillion/yr
£20,000/yr
Public Spending
£500billion/yr
Market Value of
Houses etc
£7trillion
£100,000
National Debt
£700billion
£12,000
Other Liabilities
Old nukes / PFI / Pensions /
Banks
~£500billion?
£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn
£9,000
22 of 15
Conclusions: The Critical Path
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Public Understanding and Proposed Policy
Skills and Capacity Building
Govt Guarantee Carbon & Electricity Prices
Secure Finance e.g. with ‘Climate Bonds’
Start Energy Efficiency Rollout
Build Energy Infrastructure
Fiscal Reform: ‘VAT to CAT’
Strategy transfer around the world
Switch Transportation
Complete Decarbonization of Britain and other countries
Reforest the world
Permanently avoid fossil fuel extraction
23 of 15
Thanks for your attention!
Contact me:
Stephen Stretton
[email protected]
Links:
http://www.4cmr.org
http://www.withouthotair.com
http://www.zerocarbonnow.org
24 of 15