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Socio-economic Characteristics
and Alternative Scenarios of
Growth
By the External Consultant
D. Tsamboulas
Progress of WP3
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Socio-economic characteristics are revised
and analyzed (although the task is not
completed yet), we will present
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Socio-economic indicators of today
Changes from 2000 to 2003
Some conclusions
Report on this task will be submitted next week
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Alternatives Scenarios of Growth
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There are ideas for forecasting but still in process
Table 1 Socio-economic Indicators for 2003
Table 2 Population Changes 2000-2003
Table 3 GDP Growth 2000-2003
Table 4 Foreign Trade Annual Change (Imports) 1998-2002
Table 5 Foreign Trade Annual Change (Exports) 1998-2002
Drawing some conclusions..
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Situation differs from country to country
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respective potentials and historical development
entered into the process of transition at different times and
were
not affected in the same way by recent political crisis in the
region
Low level of trade within the TEM and TER region
may be easily explained by the remaining natural
“hostility” between certain countries.
Despite unfavourable external conditions, most
economies in the TEM and TER region, managed to
preserve some of their dynamism in 2003, but there
was a general moderation of the pace of growth.
Alternative Scenarios of
Growth – Ideas
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Due to the many countries affected by TEM and TER system the
scenario would be global, though with major emphasis on the
TEM and TER countries. Also the scenario assumptions would be
as realistic as possible.
For the scenario, 2000 was chosen as the base year and years
1995-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004 were used for the forecasting.
Trend forecasting (one scenario with several variants) of
population, economy and trade started from this base line and
has been prepared on a group-country level (and in each on a
country level where possible) for 2020 projections.
Where projections are available they will be used for the trend
forecasting.
Outline of report “Alternative
Scenarios of Growth” (completed by 50% )
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Scope
Basic assumptions for the alternative scenarios
Base Scenario Description
Trend extrapolation
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Traffic/ demand forecasting based on the forecasted
indicators
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Demographic indicators
Economic Indicators
Trade Indicators
Demand Drivers
Model
Sensitivity Analysis
Truck and Coaches specificities
Conclusions