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FNCE 4070 FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS Lecture 4 The Behavior of Interest Rates Foreign Cartoons: Interest Rates Japan: 2006 Australia: 2008 Background on Cartoons Japan: AA Corporate Rates Compared to U.S. Australia: Reserve Bank Interest Rate Target Explaining Interest Rates There are two possible approaches to explaining the behavior (i.e., movement) of interest rates: (1) Demand and Supply models: (2) Understanding (through empirical analysis) critical variables that are likely to result in a change in interest rates: (1) Model based on the demand for and supply of loanable funds (i.e., debt instruments) in financial markets (Chapter 2 in the text). (2) Model based on the demand for and supply of various debt instruments (i.e., bonds) in the economy (See appendix 1 at end of this lecture). Variables, such as inflation (inflation expectations), business cycles, central bank actions, safe haven effects. These two approaches are also important because they can be used to help us forecast interest rate changes. Variables Affecting Interest Rates The second approach to understanding the behavior of interest rates is to understand the critical factors that are likely to affect market interest rates. This check list-approach include: The inflation relationship to interest rates. The impact of business cycles on interest rates. Irving Fisher Model of Interest Rates Cyclical Model of Interest Rates The impact of central bank monetary policy actions on interest rates (especially on short term rates) The impact of a financial crisis on interest rates (risk aversion and flight to quality – safety -- issues). Fisher Interest Rate Model Concept developed by the American economist Irving Fisher in his Theory of Interest (1930) Fisher’s interest rate model states that the market rate of interest is the sum of (1) a real rate requirement. The real rate requirement reflects the reward that should accrue to the lender for “lending to a productive economy. “ (2) the market’s expected rate of inflation (i.e., an inflation premium). This inflation premium protects investors against this loss of purchasing power. So: Market interest rate = real rate requirement + inflation expectations. Irving Fisher (1867-1947); Educated at Yale (Ph.D. in economics in1891) and taught at Yale from 1892 1935 A “classical” economist known for: Equation of Exchange; (MV = PT) Phillips Curve A visible index card system - known today as the rolodex Fisher Real Rate Requirement Defined: “The reward for lending into a productive economy.” Problem: This real rate requirement is much easier to conceptualize than it is to actually measure. Conceptually, however, it is probably related to growth theory, with an economy’s growth dependent upon productivity of its workforce and population. So, while the real rate requirement cannot be observed, different estimation methods relying on theoretical “growth” models have suggested: A range of 2-3% for both the United States and the euro area. A rate of 3% for the United Kingdom Sources: Manrique and Manuel Marques (2004), Laubach and Williams (2003), Giammarioli and Valla (2003), Larsen and McKeown (2004) Inflation - Interest Rate Model For default-free securities we assume that: Market rate = real rate requirement + inflationary expectations premium The assumption is that of the two components, the real rate requirement is relatively stable. For securities with a default component (e.g., corporate bonds) we assume: Why? Productivity and population changes are not subject to major short term fluctuations. However, inflationary expectations can change dramatically over shorter time frames. Market rate = real rate requirement + inflationary expectations premium + default risk premium Unlike default free securities, we also need to be aware of changes in default risk premiums which will cause the observed interest rate on these securities to change. Observation: For default free securities (especially longer term Treasuries),we tend to focus on inflationary expectations as the major factor behind changes in market interest rates. While inflationary expectations play a role in the interest rate structure of non-default free securities, will also need to pay attention to changes in default premiums. The Fisher Effect in the United States: 1965 2011; Long Term Government Interest Rates The Fisher Effect in the United States: 19652008; Short Term Government Interest Rates Regression Results: 1954 - Present R-Squares (monthly data): CPI against 3-month T-Bill Rates: 49.17% CPI against 20 year T-Bonds: 67.15% F.F. Rate against 3-month T-Bill Rates: 97.49% F.F. Rate against 20 year T-Bonds: 84.78% F.F. Rate against 10 year T-Bonds: 78.78% The Fisher Effect in the United States: 1965 - 2011; Long Term Corporate (Aaa and Baa) Interest Rates Regression Results: 1954 - Present R-Squares (monthly data) CPI against Aaa Corporate Rate: 41.69% CPI against Baa Corporate Rate: 41.13% Impact of Aaa Risk Premiums on Interest Rates: 1965 - 2011 Impact of Baa Risk Premiums on Interest Rates: 1965 - 2011 Regression Results: 1954 - Present R-Squares (monthly data) Aaa Corporate Rate against CPI: 41.69% Aaa Corporate Rate against CPI and Risk of Default Spread (Aaa – 10 Year T-Bonds): 46.02% Baa Corporate Rate against CPI : 41.13% Baa Corporate Rate against CPI and Risk of Default Spread (Baa- Aaa): 63.00% Do Risk of Default Ratings Matter? Global Default Rates Cumulative Default Rates, 1981-2005 (%): For global and U.S. companies initially rated in 1980 Inflationary Expectations What do you think influences inflationary expectations in an economy? Recent inflation data: “Adaptive response” of market participants to current inflation data. Forward looking data; how events now might affect future inflation: Central bank actions (lag effects of policy changes). Government fiscal policies. Oil, food, etc. Exchange rates impacting on import prices. What’s happening to fiscal deficits. Global demand/supply for key commodities and prospects for future supplies. What’s happening to the money supply and bank reserves. How dependent is the country on critical imports? Need to examine observed data in relation to some benchmarks. Recent inflation data in relation to “explicit inflation” targets of governments and central banks. What the economy actually doing in relation to what it could be doing? What is the economy’s output gap (actual GDP growth in relation to potential GDP growth)? Output Gap Output Gap is a measure of the difference between an economy’s actual output and the output it could achieve when it is at “full capacity.” There are two types of output gaps: positive and negative. A positive output gap occurs when actual output is more than fullcapacity output. Negative output gap occurs when actual output is less than full-capacity output. The chart at the right shows the estimated % output gap for the U.S. economy from 1990 to the present. A negative output gap is shown below the 0 line. A positive output gap, above. U.S. Output Gap and Inflation: 1980 to 2007 Economic theory suggests that positive output gap will lead to inflation as labor and production costs rise. This is also a situation when demand pull inflation is likely to exists. Findings: Every percentage point by which real GDP falls short of (or exceeds) potential tends to reduce (increase) the inflation rate by about half a point over the course of the year. Source: Krugman, 2008 Extending the Model to Incorporate Term to Maturity Considerations The next step in our explanation of interest rates is to incorporate maturity considerations in the model. Generally, the longer the term to maturity, the greater the potential risk (e.g., price risk). To extend the Fisher model to consider maturity, we add a maturity premium, or: Market interest rate = (1) real rate requirement + (2) inflationary expectations premium + (3) maturity premium. Where the maturity premium compensates for a security’s exposure to interest rate risk (i.e., price risk). Recall, the longer the maturity, the greater the potential risk, hence the greater this maturity premium. Maturity Premiums on Government Securities Rates on 1 Year, 10 Year and 20 Year Treasuries 1962 – 2008 6.14% 6.98% 1993 – 2008 1 Year: 10 Year: 1 Year: 10 Year: 20 Year: 1 Year: 10 Year: 20 Year: 4.29% 5.42% 5.92% 2001 – 2008 Maturity Spreads Over Time 1962 – 2008 2.73% 4.42% 5.50% 1993 – 2008 10 Year: 84 Basis Points 10 year: 113 Basis Points 20 Year: 163 Basis Points 2001- 2008 10 year: 169 Basis Points 20 year: 277 Basis Points Maturity Spreads Vary over Time: Sometimes Negative Extending the Model to Non-Risk Free Debt Instruments The final adjustment to this model incorporates a default risk premium, or: Market interest rate = (1) real rate requirement + (2) inflationary expectations premium + (3) maturity premium + (4) default risk premium Where the default risk premium compensates for the chance that the borrower will default. The greater the “estimation” and “expectation” of default, the higher this risk premium. Historical Default Spreads Aaa - Treasuries 1993 – 2008 Default Spreads 1993 – 2008 Aaa: 6.70% 30 Year Treasuries: 6.15% 20 Year Treasuries: 5.92% 2001 – 2008 Aaa: 5.82% 30 Year Treasuries: 5.09% 20 Year Treasuries: 5.05% Over 30 Year Treasuries: 55 Basis Points Over 20 year Treasuries: 78 Basis Points 2001 – 2008 Over 30 Year Treasuries: 73 Basis Points Over 20 Year Treasuries: 77 Basis Points Baa Risk of Default Spreads Business Cycle Impacts on Interest Rates Question: How do interest rates generally move over the course of a business cycle? Historically, while we have observed that interest rates have moved in a “pro-cyclical” manner (i.e., they move with the business cycle), i.e., Rates moving down during a business recession. Why do you think this is the case? Rates moving up during a business expansion. Why do you think this is the case? Business Cycles and Short Term Interest Rates Business Cycles and Long Term Interest Rates Interest Rates in the Current Business Cycle Default Spreads Over the Course of a Business Cycle Default spreads are dependent upon the business cycle and perceptions about the state of the economy. Rising during economic downturns and during periods of increasing economic and financial uncertainty. Falling during economic expansions and during periods of decreasing economic and financial uncertainty. Default spreads influenced by the market’s estimates as to future cash flows available to support outstanding debt obligations. Baa and Aaa Default Spreads and Business Cycles Observations on Relative Rate Changes Over time, short term and long term interest rates tend to move in the same direction. However, short term interest rates exhibit more volatility than long term interest rates. As measured in basis point changes over time. Over time, however, prices on long term debt instruments exhibit more volatility than prices on short term debt instruments. Confirming that there is more price (interest rate) risk associated with these long term securities. Relative Interest Rates Movements: Short term Versus Long term Interest Rates 1900 – 1942 Corporate Bond Yield Curve Data Monetary Policy Impacts on Financial Markets In most countries today (and certainly in all industrial countries), monetary policy uses as its main financial target some key short term interest rate. United States: Federal Funds Rate Bank of England: Official Bank Rate European Central Bank: Main Refinancing Rate Bank of Japan: Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate View these interest rates at: http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm This managed key interest rate is used to achieve inflation goals and other economic goals. Issue for financial markets: How strong is the relationship of this key interest rate to other market interest rates? In major industrial countries, this relationship is very strong with the key monetary policy rate producing almost immediate changes in short term interest rates. Bank of Japan’s Policy Impacts Monetary Policy Reactions to Business Cycles Another issue is the response of central bankers to business cycles. Issue: Do they raise rates during expansions and reduce them during recessions? Answer: Generally Yes Second issue: Are central bankers proactive or reactive to business cycle changes? Do they anticipate future economy activity and act in response to their forecasts (proactive), or do they react as the economy changes (reactive). This would result in either central bank interest rates leading economic activity or taking place at the same time or after the business cycle turning point. U.S. proactive. Other central banks present a mixed picture. Response of U.S. Monetary Policy to Business Cycles, 1965 - 2009 Federal Reserve and Three Cycles Since 1990 Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Induced Interest Rate Changes An additional central bank issue occurs because of the recent adoption of inflation targeting by many central banks. View these targets at: http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm Note: U.S. Federal Reserve adopted an “implicit” 2% long term inflation target in January 2008. Issue: As announced inflation targets are exceeded, should we be on the alert for central bank interest rate response. Specifically, as inflation targets are exceeded, central banks will probably raise their key short term interest rate to slow the economy (demand) and ease inflationary pressures back to their announced target. Safe Haven Effects The last issue to be explored is that of a safe haven effect. Investments in “safe haven” financial assets occurs during periods of financial, economic, political, military uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the demand for “safe haven” financial assets. Examples of safe haven financial assets: Government securities (especially short term) Key currencies (US dollar, Swiss franc) Precious metals (gold, silver). Increase safe haven demand will push up the prices of these assets and in the case of government securities, drive down their interest rates. Safe Haven Effect: T-Bills January 2007: 4.98% December 2008: 0.03% Safe Haven Effect: U.S. Dollar Desert Storm begins: February 24, 1991 Safe Haven Effect: Swiss Franc Percent Change in the U.S. Dollar (Note: CET = Central European Time) Appendix 1 Bond Market Model This appendix discusses the demand and supply bond market model which can be used to explain changes in the market’s equilibrium interest rate Bond Market Model The bond market model uses a demand and supply approach to illustrate how market interest rate changes come about. The model focuses initially on factors that will cause the price of bonds to change. The bond market model incorporates: Since there is an inverse relationship between prices and interest rates, the final step in the model relates to resulting interest rate change from assumed demand and supply changes. (1) a demand curve; which plots the relationship between the market’s demand for bonds and the prices of bonds (holding all other factors constant), and (2) a supply curve; which plots the relationship between the market’s supply of bonds and the prices of bonds (holding all other factors constant. Model assumes that at any point in time, these two curves can be represented as follows (see next slide): Demand and Supply Schedules Bond Demand Schedule: Demand Assumes that as the price (P) of bonds decreases, the demand for bonds will increase because as the price falls, the yield will increase. P Bond Supply Schedule: Supply Q Higher yields will increase the demand to hold bonds. Thus the demand curve is downward sloping (left to right) Assumes that as the price (P) of bonds increases, the supply of bonds will increase because as the price rises, the cost to borrow will fall. Lower borrowing costs will increase the supply of bonds offered by borrowers. Thus the supply curve is upward sloping (left to right) Equilibrium in the Bond Market Bond Market Price Equilibrium: Demand P Supply Also referred to as the market clearing price (which in turn produces a market clearing interest rate; or yield to maturity). Q This is the point where the amount of bonds an economy is willing to buy (i.e., demand) equals the amount of bonds an economy is willing to sell (i.e., supply). Think of the market clearing interest rate as the economy’s required return. What Causes the Schedules to Shift? Changes in the demand and/or supply schedule will cause a change in the market’s equilibrium clearing price (and thus in the market interest rate). Demand Shifts Result From Changes in: Supply Shifts Result From Changes in: Overall financial market risk (resulting in safe haven effects and risk aversion effects) Wealth (or income) levels (impacting on investor portfolios) Expected (relative) return on financial assets other than bonds. Expected inflation (impact on real return to investors; e.g., the higher the real return the greater the demand for bonds) Government debt financing (expenditures – tax receipts) Business investment decisions (business cycle effects and expected profitability) Expected inflation (impact on real cost of borrowing; e.g., the lower the real cost the greater the supply of bonds) Monetary policy (open market operations impact on supply of bonds, specifically T-bills) In addition, global factors need to be considered. Changes in the Equilibrium Price (and thus, Interest Rate) as Demand Schedule Shifts Demand Price Supply Quantity of Bonds Changes in the Equilibrium Price (and thus Interest Rate) as Supply Schedule Shifts Demand Price Supply Quantity of Bonds General Bond Model Versus Specific Bond Markets The bond market model we have developed thus far, is a general representation of the “average” interest rate in the economy at a point in time. In addition to this general representation, we can extend the model to various segments of the bond market to account for relative changes in interest rates among a range of debt markets. As one example, a move out of “riskier” corporate issues into T-Bills, in terms of safe haven effects, and the resulting impact on prices and interest rates can also be illustrated through a “segmented” bond market model approach. This is illustrated with the example on the next slide. Impact of “Relative” Changes in Demand on Interest Rates, September 2008 In September 2008, uncertainly in financial markets resulted in a flight to safety and specifically into T-bills and out of commercial paper. The increase demand for Tbills (schedule shifted out) resulted in an increase in their prices. And as prices rose, their yields fell. In addition, markets moved out of commercial paper This reduced the demand for commercial paper, driving down their prices and pushing up their yields. Reaction of Interest Rates (Yield Curve) to Congress’ Rejection of Financial Bailout Package, Key to Yield Curve: Orange yield September 29, 2008 Curve is for Friday, September 26 th and Green yield curve is for Monday, September 29th. On Monday, September 29, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to reject the Financial Bailout Package. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 777 points on Monday. This represented a shift out of stocks. One “demand” factor in the bond market model are the returns in alternative investments. Investors moved into safe haven financial assets as show in the yield curve. The drop in the yield curve (from Friday to Monday) represented a flight to safety (increase risk aversion) along the entire maturity of government securities. Increase demand for Treasuries (demand schedule moved out) drove up prices and pushing down yields. Reaction of Interest Rates (Yield Curve) to Speculation Financial Bailout Package would be Approved, September 30, 2008 Key to Yield Curve: Orange yield Curve is for Monday, September 29th and Green yield curve is for Tuesday, September 30th On Tuesday, the indications were that Congress would pass the $700 billion bank-rescue package (which had been rejected the day before). On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 480 points (the most in six years). On Tuesday, the yield curve rose as market uncertainty (and flight to safety) eased from the previous day. Reduced demand for Treasuries (demand schedule moved inward), pushed down Treasury prices, thus resulting in higher interest rates. Appendix 2 A Short Bio on Irving Fisher, adapted from: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Fisher.html http://economics.about.com/od/famouseconomists/a/irving_fisher.htm http://www.answers.com/topic/irving-fisher The Life of Irving Fisher Irving Fisher was born in Saugerties, New York on February 27, 1867. He gained an eclectic education at Yale, studying science and philosophy. He published poetry and works on astronomy, mechanics, and geometry. But his greatest concentration was on mathematics and economics, the latter having no academic department at Yale. Nonetheless, Fisher earned the first Ph.D. in economics ever awarded by Yale. After graduation he stayed at Yale for the rest of his career where he taught from 1982 to 1935. Irving Fisher had many interests. Due to developing and surviving tuberculosis in his early 30s Fisher had a great interest in health and hygiene. He wrote a national best-seller titled How to Live: Rules for Healthful Living Based on Modern Science. Fisher was also an inventor. In 1925 his firm, which held the patent on his “visible card index” system, merged with its main competitor to form what later was known as Remington Rand and then Sperry Rand. This merger made his a very wealthy man. However, he lost a great deal of this wealth (around $10 million) in the stock market crash of 1929. During his life Fisher also campaigned for Prohibition of alcohol. Although he damaged his academic reputation by insisting throughout the Great Depression that recovery was imminent (he famously predicted, a few days before the Stock Market Crash of 1929, that "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.“), contemporary economic models of interest and capital are based on Fisherian principles. Similarly, monetarism is founded on Fisher's principles of money and prices (the quantity theory of money). Fisher died in New Haven, Connecticut on April 29, 1947. Appendix 3 Output Gap and Investment Strategy Lombard Research, London Stages Over Output Gap Cycles Stages Stage 1: Positive, with actual rising faster than potential Stage 2: Positive, with actual still rising, but moving down towards potential (the 0 line) Stage 3: Negative, with actual falling below potential (after just crossing the 0 line) Stage 4: Negative, with actual still falling, but moving up towards potential. Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Output Gap and Investment Strategy Output Gap Stage 1: Positive, with actual rising faster than potential Stage 2: Positive, with actual still rising, but moving down towards potential (the 0 line) Stage 3: Negative, with actual falling below potential (after just crossing the 0 line) Stage 4: Negative, with actual still falling, but moving up towards potential. Investment Strategy Phase 1 – common stock but shifting to cash as interest rates rise Phase 2 – bonds as interest rates fall Phase 3 – remain in bonds, shifting to common stock towards the end of the phase Phase 4 – common stock Appendix 4 U.S. Business Cycles: Historical Data U.S. Business Cycle Data 1902 – 2001 Recessions: Average length 13 months 1973 – 2001 Recessions: Average length 10.8 months