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Transcript
BT Monthly Markets Chart
Pack – April 2009
An overview of movements in global financial markets
Global share markets rallied for a second month in a
row in April...
 Global share markets rallied further in April thanks to a
series of better-than-expected first quarter earnings results
on Wall Street and signs that investor optimism is beginning
to improve. In the US, the benchmark S&P 500 Index
gained an impressive 9.4% and this had a positive knock-on
effect elsewhere, with indices in the UK (+8.1%), Europe
(+14.7%) and Japan (+8.9%) also closing the month higher.
 The Australian share market made it back-to-back gains
in April, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index closing
5.6% higher thanks mainly to another firm lead from the US
market.
2
…and continue to perform well over the long-term,
despite some major market events
Impact of major market events on global shares since 1987
6,200
Jul 01
Tech Wreck
5,700
5,200
4,200
Aug 97
Asian Currency
Crisis
3,700
3,200
Nov 89
Fall of the
Berlin Wall
2,700
2,200
1,700
Sep 01
Attack on
Twin Towers
Jul 98
Russian Bond
Crisis
4,700
Oct 87
Wall Street
crash
Jun 07
US Sub-prime
Crisis
Feb 94
Bond Market Crash
Mar 03
Troops enter
Iraq
Jan 91
Gulf War
1,200
700
Apr-87
Apr-89
Apr-91
Apr-93
Apr-95
Apr-97
Apr-99
Apr-01
Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$.
Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI
3
Apr-03
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
The Australian share market closed 5.6% higher in
April
S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 30 April 2009
39,000
37,000
35,000
33,000
31,000
29,000
27,000
25,000
23,000
21,000
30/04/2008
30/06/2008
30/08/2008
Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data
4
30/10/2008
30/12/2008
28/02/2009
30/04/2009
Key Australian economic news – April
 The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 3.00% following its
early May meeting. The Bank acknowledged that the near-term outlook for the
economy remains weak but expressed confidence that global markets, including
China, are beginning to show signs of improvement.
 Australia’s trade balance was sharply higher in February, coming in at A$2.1
billion after a jump in exports offset a fall in imports.
 The Consumer Price Index (inflation) gained just 0.1% in the first quarter of
2009, below what the market had expected.
 The unemployment rate continued to trend higher in March, jumping 0.5% to a
five-year high of 5.7% after the economy lost a further 34,700 jobs during the
month. Newspaper advertisements were also lower, down 6.6%.
 The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer confidence survey showed an
increase of 8.3% in February, taking the index to its highest level in 14 months.
Source: BT Financial Group
5
The Australian dollar continued to rally against the
US dollar in April
 The Australian dollar (A$) managed to post further gains against the US dollar in
April thanks to a modest rise in commodity prices and improving investor
sentiment.
 Given the current market environment, it’s difficult to imagine any sort of
sustained recovery in the A$ until we see a similar recovery in the global
economy, which means the local currency is likely to continue trading around
current levels in the near-term
 At the end of April:
A$1 bought
Source: BT Financial Group
6
US$0.7251
+4.8%
€0.5486
+5.1%
¥71.47
+4.5%
The Australian dollar versus the US dollar…
Currency markets – A$ per US dollar
0.9900
0.9600
0.9300
0.9000
0.8700
0.8400
0.8100
0.7800
0.7500
0.7200
0.6900
0.6600
0.6300
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 April 2009
7
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
the Euro…
Currency markets – A$ per Euro
0.6550
0.6400
0.6250
0.6100
0.5950
0.5800
0.5650
0.5500
0.5350
0.5200
0.5050
0.4900
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 April 2009
8
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
and the Yen
Currency markets – A$ per Yen
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 April 2009
9
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Official world interest rate movements – April
 April was a relatively quiet month in terms of interest rate movements, with only
the European Central Bank lowering its benchmark refi rate by a further 0.25%.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the US Federal
Reserve all left their respective rates on hold.
 Here in Australia, the Reserve Bank decided to leave the official cash rate at
just 3.00% following its early May meeting.
Current rate
Last moved
Australia
3.00%
Apr 2009
US
0% - 0.25%
Dec 2008
Europe (ECB)
1.25%
Apr 2009
Japan
0.10%
Dec 2008
United Kingdom
0.50%
Mar 2009
Source: BT Financial Group
10
Direction of
last move
Global share market returns
30 April 2009
1 year
3 years (pa)
5 years (pa)
S&P 500 Index (US)
-37.01%
-12.67%
-4.65%
Nasdaq (US Tech.)
-28.83%
-9.57%
-2.21%
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
-36.26%
-19.47%
-5.58%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong)
-39.74%
-2.34%
5.38%
DAX (Germany)
-31.36%
-7.42%
3.66%
CAC (France)
-36.76%
-15.24%
-2.97%
FTSE 100 (UK)
-30.29%
-11.02%
-1.12%
S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind.
-28.82%
-6.35%
6.71%
S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries
-40.54%
-10.40%
-3.99%
S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop.
-57.23%
-24.20%
-9.02%
Global
Australia
Source: BT Financial Group
11
Short-term asset class performance
1-year rolling returns to 30 April 2009 (%)
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Best performing
asset class for the
year
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
Australian
cash
6.28
7.10
6.32
5.75
5.61
5.17
4.93
4.71
6.34
5.31
5.07
5.31
7.02
7.80
6.52
5.05
Australian
bonds
12.76
3.59
5.01
4.50
7.44
2.64
9.12
4.84
10.30
1.86
6.94
13.99
12.65
12.81
4.73
3.26
Australian
property
-57.23
-23.56
33.20
18.04
21.29
11.73
13.25
18.53
11.49
6.70
1.92
29.88
19.11
3.19
6.39
12.89
Australian
shares
-28.99
-5.85
22.50
37.95
21.93
18.24
-6.44
4.29
10.46
7.14
16.06
15.44
12.05
17.11
3.84
23.43
International
bonds
7.85
7.43
7.07
3.08
9.79
5.43
12.56
7.84
10.32
0.96
8.71
11.50
11.08
13.20
7.94
4.55
International
shares
-22.02
-14.08
6.30
27.70
1.71
12.06
-26.98
-18.30
-4.26
27.91
14.03
55.36
11.05
9.85
7.85
10.40
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property
Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A , UBS Bank Bill 0+ years
12
Short-term asset class performance (cont’d)
1-year returns to 30 April 2009 (%)
30 April 2008
30 April 2009
3.6
Australian bonds
Listed property
Australian shares
12.8
-23.3
-57.2
-5.9
-29.0
7.4
7.9
Global bonds
Global shares
-14.1
-22.0
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property
Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A
13
Long-term asset class performance
30 April 2009
$24,000
Australian shares
$22,500
$21,000
$19,500
$18,000
Listed property
$16,500
$15,000
Australian bonds
Global shares
$13,500
$12,000
$10,500
$9,000
$7,500
Cash
$6,000
$4,500
$3,000
$1,500
$0
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property
Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years
14
08
Oil prices moved higher again in April, up 4.1% thanks
to stronger gains on Wall Street
Oil prices – US$ per barrel
$150
$135
$120
$105
$90
$75
$60
$45
$30
$15
$0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 30 April 2009
15
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Summary

At BT, we believe the Australian economy is currently in a moderate recession
and we expect this will continue until late next year.

Whilst economic data is expected to deteriorate in the near-term, we don’t see
this as a reflection of financial markets. It’s likely we’ve seen the worst of the
current downturn.

There is growing confidence that share markets, including our own, have
already seen the bottom. Regardless, share markets will remain volatile in the
near-term.

Shares are currently trading at historically low levels and we believe they
represent good value for investors with a long-term investment horizon.

With global growth likely to slow further and commodity prices likely to remain
under pressure in the months ahead, it’s hard to see any sort of sustained
recovery in the Australian dollar in the near-term.
16
This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general
information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete
description of the matters described. The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal
objectives, financial situation or needs. It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or
securities recommendation. Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making
investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice. BT
does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this
presentation. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and
consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage
suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance
figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges
but exclude the entry fee. It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held.
No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author.
For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)
17