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Transcript
Financial University lecture, Moscow 27.10.10 “Financial development and economic growth: Lessons of History” Richard Sylla, New York University Why are there such extremes of wealth and poverty in today’s world? • Thesis: Financial development—in particular, “financial revolutions” that in brief periods gave some nations modern financial systems early in their modern histories—led them to grow economically much faster than others, producing increased inequality. • Today’s lecture illustrates the thesis by reviewing financial development in modern history. TABLE 1 REAL GDP PER CAPITA RELATIVE TO WORLD AVERAGE, SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1500-2006 (WORLD AVERAGE = 100 AT EACH DATE) Country Date Italy Netherlands U.K U.S.A Japan France Germany 1500 195 133 126 71 88 129 120 1600 185 231 164 67 88 142 131 1700 179 343 203 86 93 160 145 1820 167 273 256 188 100 184 159 1870 173 318 368 282 85 216 210 1913 170 268 326 351 92 231 242 1950 166 284 327 452 91 249 184 1973 259 319 293 407 279 320 292 1998 311 354 328 479 358 343 312 2006 274 324 319 430 311 302 277 Source: Derived from Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD, 2001. Table B-21, p. 264. and Maddison website.. 2006 319 430 302 311 84 36 23 97 Year UK US Fran Japa Chin India Afric Latin Americ 1700 203 86 160 93 98 89 65 86 1820 256 188 184 100 90 80 63 100 1870 368 282 216 85 61 61 51 81 1913 326 351 231 92 37 45 39 100 1950 327 452 249 91 21 29 40 121 1973 293 407 320 279 20 21 33 110 1998 328 479 343 358 55 31 24 102 Table 2 Real GDP Per Capita Relative to World Average, Selected Countries/Regions, 1700-2006 (World average GDP = 100 at each date) Source: Derived from Maddison (2001), Table B-21, p. 264, and Maddison website. Financial Revolution What is it? Emergence, in a brief period of history, of a modern financial system with: • • • • • • Stable public finances and public debt management Stable Currency/Money A good banking system An effective central bank Efficient securities markets Business corporations—financial & non-financial— authorized by governments and with shareholders and managers Historical Financial Revolutions Which countries in modern history had financial revolutions? • Successful cases: – Dutch Republic, 1550-1620 – England, 1688-1740s – USA, 1789-1795 – Japan, 1870s-1880s • Aborted case: – France, 1715-1720 (John Law) Dutch Republic: first modern system • Public borrowing (not forced loans) from late 16th century • Currency stabilization in early 17th century • Central bank: Bank of Amsterdam, 1609 • Banks: kassiers by early 17th century • Securities markets: Amsterdam, 1600-10 • Corporations: Dutch East India Co. (VOC) and West India Co., 1600-1620 The Dutch Golden Age, 17th century • Based in part on financial modernization, the Dutch Republic wins its independence from Spain, a much larger country, in 80-years war, 1568-1648. • The mid 17th century is the Dutch “golden age”, an “embarrassment of riches.” • Dutch build an overseas empire. • Dutch found New Amsterdam, today’s New York City. England (UK): second to modernize by emulating the Dutch Republic, mostly after 1688 • Public finance: long-term debts, 1688-1720 • Currency stabilized: de facto gold standard in early 18th century (Sir Isaac Newton) • Central bank: Bank of England, 1694 • Banking system: London, late 17th century; nationwide after 1750 • Securities markets, 1690s • Corporations: Bank of England, East India Company, South Sea Co., and others, 1690s ff. Great Britain’s leadership • Financial modernization 1688-1740s enables England to win all its wars except one from 1688 to 1815. • The first Industrial Revolution comes after the English financial revolution, and is aided by it. • Britain builds a great overseas empire. • Britain becomes “the workshop of the world” in the 19th century. The USA’s financial revolution, 1789-1795 • Public finances built and national debt restructured, 1790 • Convertible dollar currency introduced, 1791 • Central Bank: Bank of the United States, 1791 • Banking system emerges—state-chartered banks • Securities markets and stock exchanges emerge (eg, NYSE, 1792) • Numerous corporations are chartered during 1790s US expansion and economic growth • US economy expands at modern rates starting in the 1790s and continuing to the present • Geographical territory of USA more triples by 1867, when Alaska is purchased from Russia • By the 1870s or 1880s, the USA is the largest economy in the world and the leading manufacturing nation. • In 1790, the US population is less than 4 million; now it is more than 300 million. Year 2006 1998 1990 1982 1974 1966 1958 1950 1942 1934 1926 1918 1910 1902 1894 1886 1878 1870 1862 1854 1846 1838 1830 1822 1814 1806 1798 1790 2000 USD Real GDP Per Capita in the United States, 1790-2006 $100,000 $10,000 $1,000 $100 Japan’s financial revolution, 1870s-1880s • Public finance: rice taxes to money taxes; bond issues to pay samurai, 1870s • Money: Yen currency, silver- and later gold-based, 1870s-1890s • Central Bank: Bank of Japan, 1882 • Banking system: national banks, ordinary banks • Securities markets: Tokyo and Osaka stock exchanges, both founded 1878 • Corporations: many founded during Meiji era Japan’s expansion • Japan’s economic growth takes off during the 1870s, and continues to the present era, with a great setback in World War II. • Before that, Japan wins Sino-Japanese war in 1890s, and Russo-Japanese war in early 1900s • Japan is the one large non-Western country to equal the West in economic development and growth. Financial Modernization leads to Crises • Dutch Republic: Tulip Mania in the 1630s • France: Mississippi Bubble of 1719-20 under John Law’s modernization plan (next slides) • UK: South Sea Bubble of 1720 (next slides) • USA: First of many crises in 1792, on heels of Hamilton’s financial modernization plan • Japan: Inflationary crisis of late 1870s, just as finances are being modernized by reformers • Conclusion is that financial modernization is exhilarating, leading to excesses that end in financial crises. Pattern recurs: financial innovation, excesses, and then crises. • But crises end, and modern economic growth continues. Lessons of History • The Dutch, British, American, and Japanese cases suggest that financial revolutions precede and promote modern economic growth. • Other countries imported the innovations of these leaders, and their growth followed. • Researchers on today’s emerging markets find similar patterns: countries with stable public finances and sound currencies, with effective central banks and banking systems, and with liquid securities markets and ease of forming corporations, grow faster than countries that lack one of more of these key components of modern financial systems.
