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DG ECFIN Ten Years of the Euro Inspirations for the Czech Republic Session III: Panel discussion Euro and macroeconomic stability Servaas Deroose Director DG ECFIN, European Commission Conference hosted by Mr. Miroslav Kalousek, Minister of Finance of the Czech Republic, November 25, 2008 Outline DG ECFIN Assessing macroeconomic stability o Domestic: from overheating to hard-landing? o Financial: Are financial systems resilient? o External: Are external positions sustainable? Lessons from EMU@10 for future € members o Challenges o Policy requirements Conclusion S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 2 DG ECFIN Real convergence is advancing but remains a long-term challenge GDP per capita in 2007 (in PPS, EU=100) and average change, 2004-2007 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 3 Growth is slowing considerably due to global and domestic factors DG ECFIN (in %, y-o-y) 14 14 Bulgaria Estonia 12 12 Latvia Lithuania 10 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -2 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 2007 H1-08 0 2002 4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H1-08 Price level convergence but also demand pressures DG ECFIN 12-month average inflation (in %, y-o-y) 10 18 16 8 14 12 6 10 4 8 6 2 4 2 0 0 -2 2002 2003 2004 reference value Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania 2005 2006 2007 2008 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs reference value Hungary Romania -2 2002 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 Czech Republic Poland Slovakia 2007 2008 DG ECFIN Financially-driven convergence – large capital inflows and extension of external balance sheets Net capital inflows (surplus on the capital account and financial account of the BoP without reserves, % of GDP) NMS - External debt in percentage of GDP 30 120 25 100 2002 20 2007 80 15 60 10 40 5 20 0 NMS-9 Fixers' Floaters' 0 Average 9 NMS 2000 2007 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs Baltics + BG CZ HU RO PL SK Source: Eurostat and Commission services and ECB 6 Very rapid financial deepening from a low base (less pronounced amongst ‘floaters’) DG ECFIN Domestic credit growth (in % of GDP) 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania 20% 10% 0% Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Romania 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 2007 H1-08 2002 7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H1-08 Large external imbalances (especially in ‘fixers’) DG ECFIN Balance on current account (in % of GDP) -25% -25% Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania -20% -20% -15% -15% -10% -10% -5% -5% 0% 0% 2002 2003 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia 2004 2005 2006 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 2007 2002 8 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fiscal positions DG ECFIN External constraints seem to matter for fiscal performance General government balance and government debt (in % of GDP; 2007) 6 budget balance (in % of GDP) 4 BG EE 2 0 LV 60% LT -2 RO CZ SK PL -3% -4 HU -6 -8 0 10 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 20 30 40 50 government debt (in % of GDP) 9 60 70 Exchange rate developments DG ECFIN vs. euro, monthly averages (index numbers, Jan 2007 = 100) 70 BGN EEK LVL LTL 80 70 80 90 90 100 100 110 110 120 ↓ depreciation ↓ depreciation 120 130 2002 CZK HUF PLN RON SKK 130 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 2008 2002 2003 10 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Lessons from EMU@10 for future euro area members (1 - challenges) DG ECFIN Price stability: equilibrium real appreciation complicates inflation control ; shorter history of anti-inflation policy and lower credibility ; conflict between fiscal and monetary authorities ; wage catching up Effective adjustment capacity (incl. stabilisation): To deal with shocks without exchange rate instrument (but nominal exchange rate flexibility acts also as shock propagator, hence less ‘cost’ of giving up the XR instrument); Relatively more frequent and persistent common shocks with asymmetric impact (exchange rates, terms of trade, shifting comparative advantages…); asymmetric shocks still possible (see Spain, Ireland, …) Correction of large current account imbalances may require long and painful disinflation processes if coupled with stagnating productivity EMU and financial integration help efficient resource allocation and allow for longer adjustment periods, but managing credit booms can be a challenge (already well before euro adoption) Do not lose sight of long-term challenges: sustain high potential growth, in a context of ageing, globalisation (with more rapid shifts in comparative advantages) S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 11 Lessons from EMU@10 for future DG ECFIN euro area members (2 – policy needs) Improved budgetary control to reduce the risk of fiscal policy pro-cyclicality; budgetary frameworks in NMS are less developed and assessing cyclical component even more challenging Sustainability of public finances Quality of public finances ; bias towards current expenditure in NMS Flexible and integrated goods and factor markets More efficient use of labour resources (participation rates, structural unemployment, skill mismatches) Business environment and investment climate (innovation, FDI, education, favour entry /exit of firms) Growth-enhancing use of capital inflows ; NMS are receiving huge inflows , included EU funds; utilisation has differed a lot across NMS Effective supervision and regulation of financial markets ; NMS experience accelerated financial development S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 12 Fiscal policy DG ECFIN Fiscal policy has to balance multiple challenges vs need for well-targeted public spending (infrastructure, education and R&D) fiscal policy key to rein in demand pressures and overheating risks, especially in fixed XR regimes Preventing imbalances may require substantial surpluses of longer periods Quality of public finances (pro-growth priorities) S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 13 Coping with financial deepening and credit growth DG ECFIN Vigilance to prevent the build-up of imbalances and vulnerabilities Prudential and administrative measures o o o Raise minimum capital adequacy ratio Strengthen loan-loss provisioning Mandatory loan-to-income or loan-to-value limits Strengthen supervisory framework o o o Improvements in credit registers Strengthening risk management, expand stress testing Harness cross-border supervision S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 14 Structural policy implications DG ECFIN Boost external competitiveness Ensure favourable business environment and investment climate Encourage innovation and entrepreneurship to maintain competitiveness and move up the value-added chain Move toward high value-added and fast-growing sectors Sectoral composition of exports Productivity growth in the tradables sector Enhance internal economic adjustment NMS will have to manage underlying structural divergences for some time Ensure functioning of goods, services and labour markets labour mobility, skill development & wage flexibility wage setting in line with productivity gains Entrepreneurship, etc. S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 15 Conclusion DG ECFIN Catching-up is proceeding but accompanied by varying imbalances Euro adoption – readiness more important than timing Ability to cope with country-specific adjustment needs Adequate preparation in fiscal, structural and prudential domains Short-term challenges: deal with fall-out from the financial crisis; manage orderly unwinding of imbalances among the ‘fixers’, keep progress towards convergence on track for the ‘floaters S. Deroose, Director, Macroeconomy of the euro area European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 16