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Download Macroeconomic Policy and the Euro Area after the Crisis
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Macroeconomic Policy and the Euro Area after the Crisis George Alogoskoufis The Financial Crisis and the Global Recession Crisis unveiled serious weaknesses in the global financial and economic system Need for coordinated policy response Open world trading and financial system must be preserved New global economic governance (G-20) The Crisis and the Euro Area Euro area has responded in coordinated and relatively effective manner Severe recession in 2009 Unemployment set to continue to rise Inflation fell Severe worsening of public finances Figure 1 Growth Before and After the Crisis 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2006 -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 EA US UK Figure 2 Unemployment Before and After the Crisis 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% EA US UK 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 3 Inflation Before and After the Crisis 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% EA US UK 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2006 -0.50% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 4 General Government Balance Before and After the Crisis 0.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -2.00% % of GDP -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% -12.00% -14.00% EA US UK Figure 5 Government Debt Before and After the Crisis 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 75.00% % of GDP 70.00% EA US UK 65.00% 60.00% 55.00% 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The Stability and Growth Pact Fiscal deficits below 3% of GDP at all times Fiscal balance in the medium term Public debt tending towards 60% of GDP or lower Rules for corrective action Macroeconomic Policy for a Sustainable Recovery Limited role for fiscal policy to play an active role in sustaining the recovery. Core economies must adopt a cautious approach to fiscal consolidation and take time so as not to stifle the recovery Peripheral economies must proceed with fiscal consolidation immediately to gain credibility The ECB must continue providing adequate liquidity Microeconomic and Social Policy Important for the medium run to persist with the Lisbon agenda The European social model should function within the available budgetary limits