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GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Carrying Capacity as an Ecosystem
Management tool,
http://www.ecowin.org/smile/
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
• Hydrodynamic model – simulates the circulation and
phytoplankton productivity. Used to generate water exchange
and boundary conditions to implement ecological models
• Shellfish model – Growth predicted by ShellSIM of individual
shellfish species is used in the EcoWIN ecological model to
simulate the population dynamics of cultivated oysters and
mussels
• EcoWIN2000(E2K) is an ecological model that provides a
platform for integration of the other models and adds
functionality of its own. Runs for multi-year periods
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Delft3D
Run Delft 3D for large domain
(Western Irish Sea and four
loughs) using a fine grid (each
lough has hundreds of cells)
Define larger boxes (<50) within
the loughs with GIS for E2K
using (I) current and
bathymetry data (ii) WFD (iii)
aquaculture distribution
Use D3D to calculate water
fluxes across these larger
boxes at 30m intervals, and at
the seaward boundary of the
lough domain – supply these
offline as spreadsheets
Hydrodynamic transport
simulated in E2K by reading
these spreadsheet files during
an E2K model run
Modelling framework
EcoWin2000
Enter larger box
areas, volumes
etc from GIS into
E2K
Implement individual
growth model in E2K,
test, and then add
population dynamics
Run full E2K
model, calibrate
and validate
Management
scenarios
Extract E2K initial conditions for
state variables in each box,
boundary conditions and calibration
data
Measure individual shellfish
growth rates in the field
ShellSim2006
Simulate individual
shellfish physiology
using a raceway
model
Use results to
conceptualise an
energy budget model
for individual growth
Implement and validate
individual growth model
in Stella or other simple
modelling package
Prepare a water quality
database including both
the individual lough and
inputs from freshwater
and ocean boundaries
(measurements)
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
SMILE is an ecosystem model, a series of
interconnected boxes
34 boxes, 2 layers
Criteria for boxes:
Water framework Directive
Topography
Biogeochemistry
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Strangford Lough
EcoWin2000
ecological model
340 boxes
8 s layers
34 boxes
2 σ layers
Delft3D
Hydrodynamic model
A much coarser grid is used in
biogeochemical models than in hydrodynamic models.
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
So far!
• Developed growth models for Modiolus modiolus,
Ostrea edulis and Pecten maximus in addition to
existing species
• Growth models integrated into software to check that
individual growth can be accurately scaled up for
ecosystem models
• SMILE model framework changed to deal with three
new species
• Now in position to simulate growth in certain areas at
varying densities
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Objectives
• Examine growth of Modiolus
• Simulate growth
• Investigate growth at varying stocking
densities for Modiolus
• Determine optimal locations for
restoration
• Examine knock-on effects
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
ShellSIM – simulation of shellfish growth
Real time feeding experiments required to measure Modiolus
feeding rates. Experiments show how temp and food availability
effect feeding. Allowing us to model how changes in the
lough (or different areas) will effect Modiolus feeding and hence
growth
With the addition of population dynamics to the individual model,
shellfish stocks can be modelled over mutil-year periods (E2K)
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
• Simulated temperature, illustrating
northern and southern trends. Matches
well with measured values.
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Simulated temperature graph
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
200
Year 1
400
600
Year 2
Box 21
800
Box 22
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Strangford Lough
Box 22 - Lough entrance
Phytoplankton (µg Chla l-1)
7
8
SPM (mg l-1)
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
DIN (µmol l-1)
16
J
F
M
A
M
J
3
14
J
A
S
O
N
D
N
D
POM (mg l-1)
2.5
12
2
10
8
1.5
6
1
4
0.5
2
0
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Simulated growth curve for Pecten maximus
160
Observed growth
Shell length (mm)
140
Simulated growth
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
365
730
1095 1460 1825 2190 2555 2920 3285 3650 4015 4380 4745 5110 5475 5840
Julian Days over 15 years
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
M. modiolus growth
y = 25.058Ln(x) + 13.677
R2 = 0.6814
160
140
120
100
shell length
80
Log. (shell length)
60
40
20
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Modiolus individual growth
16
14
12
10
Box 27
8
Box 28
6
Box 29
4
2
0
0
500
1000
Year 1500
5
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Year 10
size refuge/ sexual maturity
match to measured growth, 10y mean
length of 7cm
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Possible factors
Phytoplankton biomass at 50
POM at 50
6
5
4.5
5
4
Box 27
3.5
3
Box 28
2.5
2
Box 29
4
Box 27
3
Box 28
Box 29
2
1.5
1
1
0.5
0
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
0
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
NB. Important to remember, only modelling
Mytilus, Crassostrea and Modiolus at present,
need to turn on wild species and additional
aquaculture species
3600
3700
Run 1 no shellfish - Simulated Chl a values, bottom Box 28
Run
3 all2.29,
shellfish
Simulated
Chl a, bottom Box 28
Run
2(mean
M.m
and
wild4.47,
- -Simulated
max
min 0.75) Chl a, bottom Box 28
(mean
1.35,
max
2.55,min
0.48)
(mean
1.35,
max
2.56,
min 0.48)
1010
10
8 88
6 66
Box28
28
Box
Box
28
4 44
2 22
0
0
0 2900
3000
2900 3000
3000
2900
3100
3100
3100
3200
3200
3200
3300
3300
3300
3400
3400
3400
3500
3500
3500
3600
3600
3600
3700
3700
3700
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
• Food does not seem to be limiting!
•
•
•
•
Other factors, including:
Suitable habitat
Predation pressure
Brood stock availability…..
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Next step
• Integrate Wild species
• Turn on new Aquaculture species
• Invite scenarios
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
Address
http://www.ecowin.org/
Operate at Eunis level three or four;
.
Rather than worrying about individual species use broadscale habitat layers;
Assign loss rates or or “feeding” rates based on top five keystone species;
Each habitat will be assigned a feeding type – i.e deposit, suspension feeder;