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Climate Change Impacts on Polar Terrestrial Ecosystems: Their Importance to the Future State of the Earth System Craig E. Tweedie PhD Department of Biology and the Environmental Science and Engineering Program, UTEP [email protected] www.armap.org www.ipyroam.org www.baidims.org www.ceoninfo.org www.ceonims.org Current Research Directions 1. Assessing the impact and feedback of climate change on arctic terrestrial ecosystems and other extreme environments. 2. Improving interdisciplinary environmental observing networks at local to international scales. 3. Building innovative technologies and cyberinfrastructure to improve capacities for environmental observation and analysis. 4. Improving future research capacities by providing life changing educational opportunities to students and teachers. Temperature Trends Atmospheric Change Observed Air temperature trend 1949-06. Global Change Models predict that differential warming of the Arctic will continue throughout the next century. CGCM2 Modeled Air temperature trend 1990- 2100. Change in temperature greatest at northern high latitudes (IPCC). Arctic is connected to the global system & cannot be studied in isolation. http://www.acia.uaf.edu/ System Science Approach • Hardest thing to teach, learn and understand ~ excellent approach for inquiry based learning • Aims to understand how change in one part of the system regulates and/or invokes change in another component of the system • Understanding connectivity is key to understanding the complexity of the system • Concept originated in electrical engineering ~ switches, voltage regulators, circuit boards etc Discussion Topics for Today 1. Carbon balance and cycling in arctic terrestrial ecosystems – why the big deal? 2. Feedbacks in polar terrestrial ecosystems – Carbon cycling ~ warming, species shifts – Albedo ~ ice retreat, species shifts 3. Impacts of change on polar biodiversity ….. Learning activity using a system science approach to predict changes in arctic terrestrial ecosystems Carbon Balance is important in the Arctic!!! • Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are important to global carbon balance. – Why is this? – What are the major pools of carbon in arctic terrestrial ecosystems? – Why is carbon arranged in these pools? – How does this compare to human greenhouse gas emissions? www.baidims.org Distribution of the major terrestrial biomes Campbell Biology 4th Edition Global relevance of tundra land area, plant carbon, Net Primary Production, and soil carbon % Area Land Area =9% % Plant Carbon Tundra Plant Carbon =1% Deserts Grasslands Boreal Forest Net Primary Production =2% % Soil Carbon % Net Primary Production Soil Carbon = 28 % Temperate Forest Tropical Forest Lakes and Wetlands Croplands Ice (Adapted from WB GU, 1998) Global relevance of tundra land area, Plant carbon, Net Primary Production, and soil carbon Land Area =9% Plant Carbon =1% Net Primary Production =2% Soil Carbon = 28 % Controls: • Coastal erosion, river and stream erosion, treeline, human development. • Species composition, historical factors, many other physical and non-biological factors e.g. herbivores, climate etc. • Plant carbon, Net Primary Production, cold temperatures, water logged soils, permafrost, soil acidity, microbial and fungal activity. Arctic Carbon Rich Soils Seasonal Active Layer Carbon Store C.E. Tweedie Arctic Carbon Rich Soils Seasonal Active Layer Carbon Store •Current atmosphere: 750 GT C •Vulnerable arctic soils: 350-900 GT C •Human C emissions: 5.4 GT C per year •1% loss arctic soil C = annual human C emissions. •Could equate to a global warming C.E. Tweedie capacity of 4-8°C. Feedbacks in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems • Understanding positive and negative feedbacks in the Arctic system is important for developing models that could predict the future state of the Arctic and global system • Understanding connections and feedbacks are key to pinpointing vulnerabilities, processes driving non-liner change, and how adaptation and mitigation can be most effective e.g…. – Carbon cycling ~ potential changes to Arctic Carbon pools – Albedo ~ longer snow free period, species change, glacial retreat Atmospheric GHGs CO2 CO2 CH4 = 23 x CO2 Photosynthesis Soil Aerobic CO2 MicrobialPERMAFROST C CH4 Anerobic Respiration Albedo Observed Snow Cover Change Barrow, Alaska Observed Snow Cover Change Barrow, Alaska Carbon CO2 Carbon Dioxide CH4 Methane Albedo Lake Disappearance in Russia Smith et al. (2005) Science 308:1429 Lake Disappearance in Russia Carbon CO2 Carbon Dioxide CH4 Methane Albedo Smith et al. (2005) Science 308:1429 Greening trend (NDVI) 1982-91 Spring temp. trend 1982-90 (Myneni et al. 1997) Summary of Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion Arctic Report Card 2007 Shrub expansion Alaska 1949 – 2001 (Sturm et al. 2001) Shrub expansion Alaska 1949 – 2001 Carbon CO2 Carbon Dioxide CH4 Methane Albedo (Sturm et al. 2001) It is estimated that shrub and tree expansion may magnify regional warming by a factor of 2-7 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007. Species are Important! • Albedo ~ shrubs and trees absorb more energy than tundra • Differences in photosynthesis • Different Net Primary Production that leads to the deposition of carbon in the soil • Differences in ability to transport methane from the soil to the atmosphere • Differences in the way they impact soil thermal properties and permafrost • …Affect other ecosystem variables as well Biological Change 5 Key ways species respond to environmental change: 1. Acclimation – individual physiological response that can be linked to genetics 2. Adaptation – species respond genetically through natural selection 3. Reorganization – some species compete for resources better than others 4. Migration – behavioral response of animals only 5. No change – species could become vulnerable to extinction • All of these can co-occur… simple isn’t it!!! Cool – mean annual air Temp ~ 0.5°C Warm – mean annual air Temp ~ 4.5°C Flowering delayed with low temperature ~ plants at low altitude finish flowering before plants at high altitude start and therefore do not share genetic material… natural selection acting differently at low altitudes compared to high altitudes. Plot Based Land Cover Change at Barrow: 1972 2000 Dry heath: • Little change in species cover and abundance. • Little change in species richness. Plot Based Land Cover Change at Barrow: 1972 2000 Pond communities: • Dramatic change in species cover and abundance. • Increase in species richness. • Evidence of pond ‘closure’. Barrow IBP Topographic Grid: 110m 390m • Significant change in vegetation cover has occurred across the IBP site suggesting overall drying trend. • Model suggests a decline of 208 g/ha/16th August in Carbon fixing potential due to land cover change alone ~900 g for the entire grid 10% 1972 total. New challenges present themselves when we scale biological change across ecosystem types and across trophic levels….. Wait till you get to your learning activity and realize the challenge first hand Conclusion • System science ~ understanding connectivity in the system is important • Carbon balance in the arctic is important ~ pools, cycling, balance • Feedbacks both positive and negative – Carbon ~ – Albedo ~ snow, vegetation change • Species response to change is important • There are many challenges that lay ahead. Lots of fun… till it catches fire and you have to jump out going full speed across the tundra!!!!… The telly-tubbies conquest of the Russian Far East!!! The Hilton Hotel Laboratory Hungry? Lavrentia in Eastern Russia… Was that you? ….the water got warm all of a sudden…. Acknowledgements National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs UTEP Systems Ecology Lab – Alaska • Santonu Goswami • Amit Raysoni • Karla Martinez • Adrian Aguirre • Yenlai Chee • Edith Juarrieta • Mark Lara • Sandra Villareal • Amorita Armendariz • Perry Houser • Alex Benhumea Follow-up • www.ipyroam.org • Ecological Society of America • SACNAS 2008 • www.ipy.org • www.armap.org California State University, Los Angeles • Dr. John Gamon Florida International University • Dr. Steve Oberbauer • Paulo Olivas • Andrea Kuchy Lund University, Sweden • Dr. Torben Christensen • Dr. Lena Ström • Mikhail Mastepanov San Diego State University • Walt Oechel • Steve Hastings • Rommel Zulueta • Cove Sturtevalent UC Berkeley • Dr. Robert Rhew • Dr. Yit Arn Teh GIS SupportNuna Technologies • Allison Gaylord Logistics Support • Barrow Arctic Science Consotrium • Swedish Polar Research Secretariat