Download in Sub-Saharan Africa and

Challenges of URBANIZATION
in Sub‐Saharan Africa and the role of universities
Dr. Joan Clos
United Nations Under‐Secretary‐General and UN‐HABITAT Executive Director
www.unhabitat.org
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The XXI century: an unprecedented
process of URBANIZATION
World Population Growth (in billions) Number of years to add each billion (year)
First Billion
Unknown (1800)
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Sixth
Seventh
Eighth
Ninth
Source: UN
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
14 (2027)
21 (2048)
Urban challenges are larger in LDCs
Billions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Developing Regions
3
2
1
Developed Regions
0
1950
Source: UN
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Developing world is urbanizing more rapidly
Over 50 %
Reaching 50%
Least Urbanized
6
Urbanization has regional character
85
Urban Population
82
76
Percent
74
61
55
54
53
47
42
37
37
29
17
15
World
Africa
Asia
1950
Source: UN
2000
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
2030
More
Developed
Regions
East Africa major cities
Cities income per capita (USD)
Urban challenges to face:
north/south/west/east
developing/developed
Concurrent trends & urban impacts
There are 4 issues with long‐term and deep impact on urbanization in the developed and developing worlds:
•Differential impacts of climate change
•Differential urban growth
•Differential urban demographics •Not so different urban social impact
•
Developed World Developing World (more than 30,000 USD per capita)
(less than 1,000 USD per capita)
Climate change:
•
Cities are sources of high level emissions of CO2
•
Urban growth: Low urban growth
Urban population diminishing in big cities
13
Climate change: Highest impact due to climate change in vulnerable and poor cities (floods, droughts, famines…)
•
Urban growth:
Urban population increasing at unprecedented rate
Developing World Developed World (less than 1,000 USD per capita)
(more than 30,000 USD per capita)
•
Demographic Shift: •
A growing youth population, potential economic asset. High rates of urbanization with low levels of industrialization
Aging population
Growing cost of old age services
•
Social impact:
Growing inequalities
Youth unemployment
High political impact of immigration coming from developing countries
Financial crisis of the welfare services
Low economic growth 14
Demographic shift:
•
Social impact: Growing inequalities
Youth unemployment
High social impact of emigration to develop countries (brain drain)
Endemic urban poverty, manifested as slum formation and resort to informal low value economy
Fast economic growth
The urban failure:
the lost of generations
The challenge of slums
1 billion people living in slums
•Sub‐Saharan Africa: 62% of the total
•South Asia: 43%
•East Asia: 37%
•Latin America and the Caribbean: 27%
The way forward: New world, new conditions, new urban paradigm
The XIX century model
• The XIX century model of urbanization was driven by the hygienist movement (Paris, Amsterdam, Vienna, Barcelona, NY, Chicago, San Francisco, Delhi, Shanghai, …) • Attention given to water and sanitation, drainage and better smell and air quality as improvement of the first Dickensian industrial city. The improvement of the poor conditions of labour population
• Promoted by progressive political movements. The socialists, labour parties, Fabians and liberals.
The XX century model
• The modern city movement (congress CIAM 1933 and the functional city – Le Corbussier): •
•
•
•
•
•
Separation of car from people…
The superblock (village like, self‐contained, romantic view…)
Zoning…
Specialized uses…
Suburbia model
Very high demand of mobility
• Initially supported by socialists and communists
The XX century model
The XX century model
The post World War II model
•
The “mutation” of the modern city ideal. The success of the modern city after WWII. The car based economy: the CAR BASED CITY. •
Commercially very successful, industrialized production of the city, real estate friendly. Suburbia, specialization zoning and very low density. •
High use of green as a “decorative” and “softening” of the model. •
Loss of the grammar of urban planning. Loss of cultural identity and values. Unhappiness about the city. Homogeneity of the model (similarities of forms everywhere) •
Universally supported by all political parties. Overall and general consensus. The post World War II model
Recreational
Residential
Business district
Industrial
TechnologicalP
ark
Commercial
The post World War II model
The post World War II model
A new Urban Paradigm
XXI century: need of a new urban paradigm
Paradigm change
Sustainable Urban Planning & Design
•
Better Planning & Design with optimal density and diversity •
Plan in advance and to the scale of expected growth
•
Planning starts with the street & public space, water & sanitation , energy supply, urban mobility and other basic services
•
Avoid urban development on steep slopes, water beds, quake prone zones and other risky areas
•
Avoid zoning as much as possible •
Preservation of the land mosaics
The urban economy
Promote Urban Economy
• Economies of Urbanization: Economic value generated by location near urban services and common goods.
• Economies of Agglomeration: Economic value generated by the proximity and diversity of factors of production, diminishing transactions costs, favouring specialization. Massive increase of productivity. The new urban model
Why the change of urban paradigm is so difficult? Land markets (successful commercially)
Low level of regulation High architectural creativity (singular buildings, icons…)
Apparently “green” city, but not an ecological model at all (high emission of green gas houses)
The problems:
Based on a very cheap energy price which allows for a lot of mobility, the model is UNSUSTAINABLE. This is not a question of opinion, but a question of energy prices. The new urban model
THE NEED OF CITY ENLARGEMENTS
Good words… if it is well planned
DENSITY
DIVERSITY
MOBILITY
PRACTICAL LEGAL INSTRUMENTS
EQUITY
EFFICIENCY
Universities as the best place to elaborate the new paradigm. The hope is in the universities of the developing countries. New generations… your turn!
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