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China---Vision 2020
Speech at the Croatian Institute of International Relations
November 28, 2012, Zagreb
The Mayan calendar terminates by the end of December 2012. Someone
assumed that this year would be the end of the world. Let me show you
how the Hollywood movie describes the world of 2012.
Fortunately, this is a faked story. It will not come true. We are still alive.
However, the year 2012 is indeed not an easy one. The world economy is
still in recession, many countries are still affected by the financial and
sovereign debt crisis, while the Middle East is still at war….. This is the
fact of today.
Turning your eyes to China, you might see a totally different scene of
prosperity. You may ask why China is still thriving during the time of
crisis. What are the prospects of China’s future and what can China bring
to the world with its rapid development? The recently concluded the 18th
National Congress of the Communist Party of China answers all the
questions and gives us a China vision 2020.
To talk about the future 10 years, we must start by reviewing the past 10
years’ development in China. Let me share with you some basic facts of
what happened in China in the last decade.
The past 10 years for China is a period in which the country witnessed the
most rapid development and substantial achievements, while the people’s
living standard has also been greatly improved. Let me share with you
some basic figures and facts: the average annual growth of China’s
economy is 10.7% during the last 10 years, much higher than the world
average of 3.9%; China’s GDP reached 7.5 trillion USD in 2011. China is
now the second largest economic of the world; China’s share in the world
economy increased from 4.4% to 10% within 10 years; China’s
contribution to the world economic growth accounts for more than 50%;
China’s GDP per capita reached 5432 USD ranking No.90 of the world;
the total import and export trade volume reached to 3.6 trillion USD in
2011 ranking the second place of the world. At present, China is the
world largest export and second largest import country. I believe China
will become the world largest import country in the near future. China
has established a relatively comprehensive social security system and
achieved the largest poverty alleviation goals of the world. China
maintains low unemployment rate and the registered unemployment rate
is under 4%. The average per capita income increased by 1.8 times over
the past 10 years. China’s scientific innovation has also achieved
tremendous accomplishments.
On the basis of such progress, the 18th CPC Congress set our targets
for 2020. The vision can be depicted by figures.
By the year 2020, China’s goal is to double both its total GDP amount
and the income per capita for both urban and rural residents of 2010.
Calculated in constant prices of 2010, the total volume of China’s
economy will reach 13 trillion USD by 2020, close to the amount of the
first world economic entity. The GDP per capita will also surpass 10,000
USD. This will be a substantial development for China’s economy,
especially with the doubling of the income per capita as a major
breakthrough. Let’s put this in simple mathematic terms, the average
income of urban residents in China will increase from more than 3000
USD in 2010 to almost 7000 USD by 2020.
This is not only a plan to enrich the people, but also a strong engine in
promoting China’s economic development. The income-doubling refers
to the actual growth regardless of the price element in which the real
purchasing power can be guaranteed. In the past 10 years, regardless of
the price element, the actual annual growth rate of the average Disposable
Personal Income was 9.2% and the total volume of retail sales has
increased from less than 1 trillion USD to 3 trillion USD with an annual
growth of 16%. If this progress continues, by the year 2020, the scale of
total consumption will exceed 10 trillion USD. The income-doubling
measures will create 600 million middle-income consumers. They are the
firm foundation and the driving force for long-sustained economic
development. They will directly lead to sharp increase of total volume of
consumption and consumption structure, providing greater space for
industrial development and better opportunities for investment.
Urbanization is another key word for China’s future development. At
present time, China’s urbanization rate has reached to 51.27% and by
2020, it will be up to over 60%. Urbanization becomes the largest
potential demand of the domestic market as well as the driving force for
its high-speed economic development during the next 20 to 30 years.
Urbanization is an important factor to the promotion of consumption
demand, investment stimulation and promotion of economic service.
However, the healthy sustainable development of urbanization must be
established on real economy and industry to realize a harmonious
development of urbanization, industrialization, agricultural modernization
and informationization.
Ecological civilization as entitled “Beautiful China”, is another strategic
goal adopted by the Congress. The “Beautiful China” concept represents
the targets of sustainable development and building a harmonious society.
The overall target is to achieve harmonious development of human being
and the nature. During 2006-2011, the average energy consumption of per
GDP unit in China decreased by 21%, which is an equivalent to a
reduction of 1.6 billion tons of CO2 emission. The total emission of
principal pollutant decreased by 15%, and the afforestation area of
620,000 sq. km. was developed. The target for 2020 is a further reduction
of CO2 emission by 40-45%. The Chinese government has made the
solemn commitment to the world that China will follow a model of green
development.
These targeted goals better prove that China will enter into a new
round of economic growth. This is a clear and beautiful vision of
China in 2020. Can we achieve these goals? Yes, we can.
China’s tremendous achievements in the past 10 years attributed to our
road of socialism with Chinese Characteristics. As the leading party of the
country with the largest population of the world, CPC can never copy any
other political system and development model. We firmly believe that we
can only realize Chinese nation’s great renewal and rapid development by
unswervingly following the path in line with China’s actual conditions.
The success in the past demonstrates that we have made the right choice.
The new generation of Chinese leadership, with Xi Jinping as the General
Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, will unswervingly follow this
path with Chinese characteristics and achieve the objectives of political
stability, economic development, cultural prosperity, harmonious society
and ecological civilization.
The Chinese Communist Party is guided by Scientific Outlook on
Development. This is a major component of the guiding theory of CPC.
The essence of the theory is to achieve sustainable development by
overall rational programming and reshaping the economy while put
people’s benefits in the first place. Development must be based on the
acceleration of transformation of economic development pattern and the
formation of new growth modality which puts quality and effectiveness
as the priority of economy. Technological innovation will be dynamic to
economic development while an up-to-date system of industry and a
global-oriented economy will foster our new economic advantages.
China’s fast growth in the past 30 years depends on the input of cheap
labor, consumption of large amount of resources and extensive
government investment. However, such an extensive development mode
is not sustainable. The key to China’s economic restructuring is the
increase of labor and production efficiency through the improvement of
technological progress in order to achieve the endogenous growth of
economy. To meet this requirement, we are encountered with new tasks
including full utilization of innovation capabilities, promotion of
technological innovation projects, establishment of new technological
innovation system with enterprises as the main entity and the market as
the orientation, accelerating the reform and upgrading of traditional
industry with high and new technology, as well as the improvement of
industrial innovation and market competition capacities.
Do we have challenges and what the world can benefit from China’s
future development?
Yes, we do face very serious challenges and our task is arduous. After a
few decades of rapid development, China is encountered with multiple
challenges, such as the ever-changing international situation, slow-down
of the economic growth, aging of the population, the factors of social
unfairness and sharpening of difference of income, the sustainability of
resources and environment and so on. The 18th CPC Congress well take
these challenges into consideration and our future development are
targeted at solving all these problems by introducing new thinking and
new measures. Sustainability of development and fairness of distribution
will be achieved. I have full confidence in the future of my country.
As the second largest economy in the world, China has always been a
focus of attention of the international community as what direction China
is heading and in what way the world will be affected. The 18th CPC
Congress has signaled to the world that China will always be a positive
force in safeguarding the world peace and promoting common
development and prosperity. China was for long time in history on the
forefront of world economy and technology, but hegemony was never its
option. The Silk Road was a road of peace, prosperity and cooperation
which once linked up China and the world. China will still be a
developing country in a long-run and China’s continued, fast and healthy
development will provide the world with more opportunities for
cooperation and development. China’s huge market will provide the
world with numerous business opportunities. We can see a mutual
beneficial vision from the cooperation between China and the world.
Even if when China becomes stronger and developed, we will still uphold
the banner of peace, development, cooperation and mutual-benefit and to
contribute to the world with peace, development and prosperity in a
manner of a world power with responsibilities.
Ladies and gentlemen,
My vision of China in 2020 is----a country with real political democracy,
highly developed economy, prosperous culture, comfortable livelihood of
the people, friendly environment in a world of peace, harmony and
cooperation.
speech.
Thank you!
Let me quote Mr. Xi Jinping’s words to conclude my