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DAINAM Securities Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015 WEEKLY MARKET REPORT DAINAM SECURITIES JOINT STOCK COMPANY From 25/05/2015 To 29/05/2015 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WEEK FROM25/05TO 29/05/2015 Market will fluctuate and correct during the week. Recommend investors to buy stocks with good basic information and already decreased in price for a certain long time. MACD and Signal line were still well under Zero level but MACD started cutting the Signal line from beneath; that indicates a new rally. Meanwhile, RSI and MFI at the end of the week were 54.65 and 56.24 respectively and the two lines created an upscale form, translating the possibility of a mid-term uptrend. However, in terms of individual stocks, there emerged profit taking activities amongst investors. We think that the trend will be stronger in the week from 25-29/May and that despite early indication of a trough, the market still need some correction sessions to officially confirm an obvious rally. NEWS REVIEW FOR THE WEEK FROM18/05 TO 22/05/2015 INTERNATIONAL NEWS TPA: Senate Passes Obama Trade Agenda Authorization Copywright @ DNSE President Barack Obama’s trade agenda legislation passed the Senate, setting up a fight in the House over giving the White House more Page | 1 DAINAM Securities Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015 authority to negotiate new deals. The bill -- called Trade Promotion Authority -- faced staunch opposition from members of the president’s own party, who worked unsuccessfully for weeks to sink the legislation. Supporters of TPP including Obama and most Republicans argue that it will increase American jobs by opening up more global markets and advance several strategic defense goals by not allowing China to gain outsize influence in Southeast Asia. IMF sees less pessimistic outlook for Russian economy Hedge funds lose faith in oil rally as Opec seen boosting supply The International Monetary Fund on Thursday announced a less pessimistic forecast for Russia's economy, predicting no more than 3.4 percent contraction in 2015 and emergence from recession in 2016. The IMF had last month predicted that the economy would contract by 3.8 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2016."A recession is expected in 2015 followed by a mild recovery in 2016," the IMF said in a statement released at a presentation in Moscow. "GDP is expected to decline by 3.4 percent in 2015 driven by a contraction in domestic demand and weighed down by falling real wages, higher cost of capital and weakened confidence." Speculators are losing faith in the oil rally, judging that Opec will keep increasing supply from the highest level since 2012.Their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 2.1 per cent, as long wagers fell the most in two months and short bets declined to the lowest since August, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Opec's push to defend its share of the global oil Copywright @ DNSE Page | 2 DAINAM Securities Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015 market has just begun and its members may further increase production, the International Energy Agency said May 13. Saudi Arabia said it boosted output to the highest level in at least three decades. Oil explorers in the U.S. reduced the rig count last week by the least since December, diminishing the probability that supply will contract. DOMESTIC NEWS Stock market highlights Gasoline prices rise by 6% Copywright @ DNSE Last week experienced explosion in point and liquidity on HOSE and slight improvement on HNX. On HOSE, liquidity rocketed with more than 104 million traded stocks, equivalent to 1.4 trillion, increased by 40% compared to last week. 4 consecutive increasing days helped the VNindex climbed to 562 points, which is 5% higher than last week. HNX, however, showed less impressive recovery with only 1% increasing in the HNX-index. The liquidity on this exchange increased 23% in volume and 16% in value, with more than 44 million stocks traded, equivalent at nearly 500 billion. The ministries of Finance and Industry and Trade yesterday enabled enterprises to increase gasoline prices by VND1,200 (six cents) per litre in the wake of increasing global fuel prices.The Viet Nam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) immediately raised their retail price following the decision.The new prices are VND21,030 ($1) per litre for RON 95 gasoline, VND20,430 (97 cents) per litre for RON 92 gasoline and VND20,100 (95 cents) per litre for biofuel E5. This is the fifth time petrol prices have been adjusted this year, after two cuts and two Page | 3 DAINAM Securities Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015 increases. Petroleum prices were last raised on May 5 by nearly VND2,000 (10 cents) per litre. Vietnam still grows below potential The World Bank chief economist in Viet Nam, Sandeep Mahajan, has shared his views on the country’s socioeconomic performance. The heart of recent improved performance in Vietnam was stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, solid foreign direct investments in manufacturing sector and exports from the sector, and key reforms to the business climate. Industrial production grew by 9.4 percent (year-on-year) in 2015Q1, up from 5 percent in the same period of 2014. Export performance of FDI sector also remains strong, partly compensating for the softening of the commodity export earnings on account of weaker global prices. The agriculture sector has also been a stabilizing force in recent years and the services sector has maintained steady growth rates in the 6-7% range since 2010. It is important to recognize, however, that despite the recent improvements, the Vietnamese economy still performs below its potential. Copywright @ DNSE Page | 4 DAINAM Securities CPI rise 0.16% in May Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015 The consumer price index (CPI) for May showed an increase of 0.16 percentover April and a yearon-year surge of 0.95 percent, the General Statistics Offices (GSO) said on May 24. Hence, average CPI in the first five months of 2015 increased 0.83 percentcompared to the same period last year.Seven out of 11 main commodity groups inthePI baskets showed price increase, led by housing and building materials, which jumped 1.27 percentsince last month. The office forecasted CPI in June will see a slight growth due to continued effect from the petrol price hike on May 20 and high demand of electricity during hot weather FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITIES 150 100 50 HOSE HNX 0 18.05 19.05 20.05 21.05 22.05 -50 11.05 12.05 13.05 14.05 15.05 -100 Net buy 405 billion on HOSE Net buy 111.8 billion on HNX Copywright @ DNSE Last week, the market saw strong net buy activities on both exchange, after a previous week of net sell. This group of investors net bought the whole week on HOSE with total value of 405.15 Page | 5 DAINAM Securities Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015 billion, in which, Friday was the most significant day with 145 billion. Most interested stock last week were SSI, VCB, FPT, GAS while most net sell stocks were HPG, SBT, TDC, SRC and HAG. On HNX, they also net bought in all trading sessions with 111.8 billion trading value. In this exchange, PVS, PVB, VND, HUT and BBC were the most interested ones, while SHB, DBC, BBS, NHM and ONE were in top 5 net sold stocks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The market experienced a strong pull-back after testing the support point of 530 points. Liquidity of the market was significantly improved; VNIndex broke out the 555 resistance threshold. Closing the week, VNIndex reached 561.82 points.Weekly candlestick of VNIndex formed a hollow body covering the last two candlesticks. Other indicators: MACD and Signal line were still well under Zero level but MACD started cutting the Signal line from beneath; that indicates a new rally. Meanwhile, RSI and MFI at the end of the week were 54.65 and 56.24 respectively and the two lines created an upscale form, translating the possibility of a mid-term uptrend. However, in terms of individual stocks, there emerged profit taking activities amongst investors. We think that the trend will be stronger in the week from 25-29/May and that despite early indication of a trough, the market still need some correction sessions Copywright @ DNSE Page | 6 DAINAM Securities Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015 to officially confirm an obvious rally. For more information, please contact: Statement of Disclaimer - Phuong My Hang Pham Department of Analysis Email: [email protected] Phone: (04) 7304 7304 (ext201) DAINAM Securities joint stock company Head office: 12A Floor, Centre buldingHapulico Complex, Number 01 Nguyen HuyTuong, ThanhXuan, Ha Noi. Tel: (04) 7304 7304 Fax: (04) 73 073 073 Website: www.dnse.com.vn Copywright @ DNSE Information contained on this report based on the resources that DNSE believed as accurate at the time, but maybe updated, amended or superseded by subsequent disclosures, or may be outdated and inaccurate over time. DNSE does not undertake any obligation to insure the accuracy, updating of these information. - Recommendations on this report are subjective views of analysts. Investors using this report as source of reference take full responsibility for their investment decisions. Page | 7