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Modeling how the planning horizon, risk perception and behavioral changes influence epidemic dynamics Luis G. Nardin, Craig R. Miller, Benjamin J. Ridenhour, Stephen M. Krone, Bert O. Baumgaertner Center for Modeling Complex Interactions, University of Idaho Background and Objective Human behavior contributes to the spread of infectious diseases. However, there is no comprehensive understanding of how behavioral changes shape such dynamics. We aim to understand how individuals’ planning horizon and risk perception influences their behavior, and how this in turn impacts epidemic dynamics. Methods We develop an epidemiological agent-based model, SPIR, in which agents decide to adopt susceptible or prophylactic behavior by maximizing their expected utility. Agents consider the time they expect to spend in each state constrained by the planning horizon, the payoff for being in each state, the disease’s prevalence, and the protection efficacy of the prophylactic behavior. Results Agents never adopt the prophylactic behavior for low protection efficacy. Increasing the planning horizon or risk perception reduces the level of disease’s prevalence necessary for agents to adopt the prophylactic behavior. The adoption of this behavior reduces the peak size while prolonging the epidemic and can generate secondary waves of infection. This dampening effect is made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency. Discussion and Conclusions The impacts of longer planning horizons and elevated risk perception are not linear. Small increases result in higher adoption of the prophylactic behavior and reduced peak prevalence. Greater increases, however, have the opposite effect: no adoption of prophylactic behavior and increased peak prevalence. Grant Support: Research reported in this work was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number P20GM104420. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.