Download Weather Impact on the Olympic Winter Games

Weather Support for the 2002 Olympic and
Paralympic Games
Dr. Tom Potter
SLOC Weather Coordinator
and NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional
Prediction. U. of Utah Department of Meteorology
Presented by John Horel
KSL
2002 Winter Games
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2500 Athletes
78 Events at 10 Venues
1.5 Million Spectators
9000 Accredited Media + 4 K more
26,000 Volunteers + 5000 Staff
Budget $ 1.3 Billion
Games Labeled “Outstanding” by
Athletes,Spectators,TV Audience,
and the Media.
KSL
Wasatch Front
KSL
D. Judd
Downtown Salt Lake City
KSL
Paralympics
CIRP
Weather Effects on Olympic Activities
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Sport Competition Delays
Transportation (Ground and Air)
Spectator Safety & Comfort
Medical Emergency Response
Security
Snowmaking & Snow Removal
Engineering & Construction:
Seats,tents,flags,displays,…
• Environmental Quality & Air Pollution
• Ceremonies with weather-critical shows
before 50,000+ people in stadium
Potential Wx Concerns
• Forecasts of Precipitation in the Mountains
• Forecasts for tiny sports venues at precise
fixed times
• Heavy Snow
• Strong Winds
• Too Warm for Snowmaking
• Rain on Snow
• Low Visibility: Fog or Snow
• Lightning
• Avalanches
• Air Pollution
Westwide Avalanche Network
Actual Weather
• Nearly perfect for Winter Games:
Colder & drier than normal, with
no big snowstorms, strong wind
gusts, or low visibilities
• Few weather
delays/postponements
- Mostly from winds
- Only one postponement from
snow
- Potential wind/lightning impacts
at all 4 Opening/Closing
Ceremonies
What Was Provided
• Forecasts & Warnings : For 5 Outdoor
Venues,the Salt Lake Area, and Roads
• Official Weather Conditions at Venues
• Historical Climate Data: Venues & Cities
plus Climate Forecasts from CPC
• Consultant advice on applications:
snowmaking,engineering & construction,
transportation, security, ceremonies,...
Who Did the Job
Unique Weather Team from public,
private, academic and military sectors
- NWS WFO: Area-wide & road corridor fcsts,
plus led twice-daily conference calls
- KSL : Detailed fcsts for sports venues
- U: Pre-Game Planning, Sensors, MesoWest,
Research, Fcst Tools, Hi-Res Analyses &
Fcsts, Wx Aides
- Hill AFB: Helicopter Support and TMOS
- NWS Western Region SSD, NCEP, SLOC
IS/Comm/Others, USFS Avalanche Center,
FSL (FX-Net), UOPSC
Real-time Operations
• Weather Operations Center at NWS Office
near SLC Airport (24/7)
• Coordinator/Aides at SLOC/MOC(04-1900)
• Weather Forecasters at Outdoor Venues
( 0400 to 1800 on event days)
• Volunteer Weather Aides at Outdoor
Venues: Official Obs (0600 to 1800)
• High-res MM5 and ADAS Runs,
MesoWest DataBase at U of U (24/7)
• Aviation Weather from Hill AFB (24/7)
Weather Operations Center
KSL
Weather Operations Center
KSL
Media Operations Center
KSL
CIRP
KSL Weather Team
KSL
Hill AFB
CIRP
Ingredients for Success
• Planning Before the Games
– Science
• IPEX February 2000 field program
• Local studies
– Technology
• FX-Net
• MesoWest
• MM5/MM5-MOS
IPEX- Intermountain Precipitation Experiment
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IPEX field program during
February 2000
Research ongoing to
improve the understanding,
analysis, and prediction of
precipitation and
precipitation processes in
complex terrain
More information: BAMS.
February 2002
J. Steenburgh
FX NET
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PC-based weather display
system from NOAA/FSL
• Provides access to
NWS/AWIPS information at
outdoor venues and Hill AFB
• Insures all forecasters on
Olympic team have access to
the same weather information
KSL
MesoWest surface network
• 2600 stations & 70
networks in western US
• 250+ stations in
northern Utah
• BAMS. February 2002
www.met.utah.edu/mesowest
Monitoring Weather
MesoWest
Mesoscale modeling/(MOS)
Mesoscale Model Skill
Temperature MAE
5
MM5-12km
MM5-4km
MM5-12km Adj
MM5-4km Adj
MOS
4.5
4
MAE (oC)
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
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Mountain
Mountain Valley
Wasatch Front
Valley
Site Type
The mean absolute error (MAE) of
temperature by geographic region for the
period 23 Jan 2002 – 24 Mar 2002.
Ingredients for Success
• Operations During the Games
– Clearly Defined Areas of Forecast
Responsibility During the Games
• NWS: protection of life and property and
coordination with federal and state agencies
• KSL: provide SLOC with detailed guidance for
weather critical events
* Forecasters Knew Local Mtn Weather
* Each Component of Weather Team brought
unique strengths
* Twice Daily Conference Calls Aided in
Accurate & Well-Coordinated Forecasts
Outdoor Venues
Park City
Alpine GS, Snowboard GS
Snowboard Half Pipe
Snowbasin
Downhill, Combined, Super-G
Olympic region sites
Utah Olympic Park
Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton,
Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined
Deer Valley
Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls
Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined
Locations of Weather Stations
Venue Forecasts
Soldier Hollow
Cross Country/Biathlon
CIRP
Deer Valley
Aerial/Slalom/Moguls
KSL
Park City
Snowboard/Grand Slalom
CIRP
KSL
Utah Olympic Park:
Ski Jump/Bobsleigh/Luge
CIRP
SnowBasin
Downhill
KSL
D. Judd
Closing Ceremonies
CIRP
• Set-Up
•4-5 PM Lightning
•Ceremonies Begin
•6-7 PM Calm
• Balloons and Fireworks
•8:30-9:05 PM Calm
•Post Ceremony Cold Front
•9:20 PM Gust to 21 mph
•9:45 PM Gust to 41 mph
Forecast Results
• Overall, forecasts were excellent,
according to customers.
• Superb data sets and wide range of
models available to experienced
forecasters who coordinated well.
• Had high resolution analyses/forecasts.
• MM5/MOS forecasts for venues were quite
accurate.
• Detailed, precise forecasts for
Opening/Closing Ceremonies were
exceptionally good.
LEGACIES
• More observations and new forecast tools
• Better understanding of winter weather
in complex terrain as a result of research
& experience
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Will result in better forecasts in mountain
regions well after the Olympics
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Model of multi-sector cooperation
Ongoing scientific issues
• QPF!!!
– When, where, how much
• Highway surface modeling/guidance
• Air quality during cold
pools/inversions
• For additional information:
BAMS Feb 2002