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Background, goals and expectations from the MANFRED Project: management strategies to adapt Alpine Space forests to climate change Marc Hanewinkel Swiss Federal Institute WSL MANFRED Final Conference “The Future Potential of European Mountain Forests: challenges and solutions between Green Economy and Climate Change” 28th June, 2012 – FAO Headquarters, Rome (Italy) MANFRED Management strategies to adapt Spazio alpinoforests to climate change risk http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject Outline 1. Background: The challenges posed by climate change for forests 2. Goals of the project 3. MANFRED in brief: workpackages and expected outputs 4. Conclusions and outlook http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject Background: Climate change: challenges for forests • • • Change in productivity and increased mortality of tree species Genetic adaptive capacity of tree species will be exceeded – major tree species – range shifts Extreme events – changing abiotic and biotic risks: • Increased risk of fire • Increased risk of avalanches / landslides / rockfall • Higher level of storm damage risk • Increased Ozone concentration • Increased spread of pests and diseases http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject MANFRED bridges the gap between research and practical forest management and seeks to collect knowledge with regard to climate change effects on 4 main topics: •forest growth and land use changes,hazards & stressors, best practices to face extreme events protection forests; •identify hot spots with concrete need for action on the regional & local level; •develop management strategies able to adapt to changing environmental conditions; •contribute to the implementation of the suggested strategies in cooperation with decision makers in 4 transnational case study regions. http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject Goals of the project • Main objectives: protection and preservation of forest ecosystems as well as risk prevention and effective management of forests by means of knowledge-based adaptive strategies. • These main goals of MANFRED were addressed in three steps 1) Collection and sharing of knowledge regarding CC effects on forest ecosystems, with focussing on the regional level 2) Identification of action requirements on regional and local level 3) Development of adaptive management strategies in cooperation with decision makers on regional level. http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject Use of results • Target groups: local authorities, forest administrations, forest owners, forest practitioners, and other decision makers • MANFRED: practical help through direct involvement of the target groups • dissemination of practice-oriented outputs (handbooks, manuals, maps) • Transnational Workshops, excursions, training courses (with regional stakeholders) • international conference on adaptive management strategies in forest ecosystems • IT: integration of handbooks, guidelines, manuals as electronic tools in a web platform (e.g. forestknowledge.net) http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject MANFRED 6 countries (Alpine Space) 3.3 Mio € (2.4 Mio ERDF) 15 Partners 4 transnational case studies Cerbu, G. 2011 FVA Freiburg, D http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject MANFRED - Work Packages (WP) WP 4: Climate and land use scenarios, tree provenances WP 5: pests & pest complexes, hazard scenarios (storm, fire, drought, ozone), risk maps & hotspots WP 6: extreme events to forests and best practices to deal with WP 7: Eco-engineering & protection forest management WP 8 Adaptive forest management with transnational case studies Scientific coordination: Prof. Dr. Marc Hanewinkel, WSL, Birmensdorf, CH Project management: Gillian Cerbu, FVA, Freiburg, D http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject WP 4: Climate scenarios/ provenances 4.1 Downscaling existing global/regional climate models (GCM/RCM) for IPCC scenarios 4.2 Land use & land use change simulations for different climate scenarios 4.3 Biome shift modelling (bioclimatic envelopes) for tree species 4.4 Development of silvicultural strategies for mitigating effects of CC & adapting forests to CC 4.5 a) trans-national Provenance Plot Network b) reaction of tree species on regional level c) alternative seed sources http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject Results: Potential future ranges N. Zimmermann 2009 WSL, Birmensdorf, CH http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject WP 5: hazards 5.1. Establishment of a monitoring network for pests, pest complexes and diseases 5.2 Risk assessment for EU quarantine pathogens and to the expected migration 5.3 Internet-based Pests and Diseases information platform and Guide “Pest management” 5.4 Hazard scenarios for storm, fire, drought and ozone under climate change 5.5 Development of local scale risk maps - Management Guide for case-study areas and for risk-hotspots http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject risk assessment for quarantine organisms species list Existing PRA & PRA methodology Evaluation & gathering distribution data Climatic envelopes & Adaptaion of PRA and Endangered areas oriental chestnut gall wasp EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH); Risk assessment of the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus for the EU territory on request from the European Commission. EFSA Journal 2010; 8(6):1619. Probability of entry moderately likely, uncertainty moderate Probability of establishment very likely, uncertainty low Probability of spread likely, uncertainty low Potential impact moderate, uncertainty high endangered areas include: all areas of C. sativa fruit and timber production in southern Europe, particularly the Mediterranean, are endangered. e.g. in northern Portugal, northern Spain and south-west France must be considered to be at the greatest risk. The northern limits to the distribution of D. kuriphilus in Europe can not be predicted. MANFRED Management strategies to adapt Alpine Space forests to climate change risk Naumann, M. 2011 LWF, Freising, D http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject WP 6: Extreme events 6.1 Definition of “extreme event”, questionnaire and identification of areas with extreme events 6.2 Database and a web-Gis application of the census results. 6.3 Ranking of events, analyses on most significant events, ecological and socio-economic impacts and management practices 6.4 Network for sharing experiences (4 roundtables with stakeholders and experts) 6.5 Best management practices and policies for prevention and post-event management http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject fires Pan-alpine database on fires: • more than 23.500 occurrences; • large part of the Alpine Space covered: Oliveri, S., 2011 UNICATT, Brescia,I http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject WP 7: Eco–engineering 7.1European guidebook (multilingual) on eco-engineering 7.2 Risk based, Forest Ecoengineering Projects (FEP) with a transnational expert team and students 7.3 E-Learning course on the use of eco-engineering practices for risk prevention 7.4 Alpine Platform on 'eco-engineering in alpine forests for risk prevention‘ 7.5 Documentary DVD on 'eco-engineering in alpine forests for risk prevention' http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject WP 8: Adaptive forest management 8.1 Compiling information on future forest conditions in the alpine space from Wps 4, 5, 6 8.2 Strategic guidelines for Adaptive Forest Management for the Alpine Space 8.3 Transboundary and transnational case studies in the Alpine Space 8.4 Integrated manual for adaptive forest management in the alpine space 8.5 Book on the "22nd-century potential" of forests in the alpine region http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject Conclusions – strategies: • • • Adaptation strategies: • Active: • Change tree species (forest transformation) • Use genetically better-adapted provenances • Change forest management (reduce tree height, early thinnings, reduced rotation times, mixed forests) • Passive: use adaptation potential (succession,…) Risk management !! • Pest & diseases monitoring (invasive species) • Effective risk modelling (fire, storm, drought, ozone, …) • Early warning systems for fire • Include uncertainty in decisions Transnational approach http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject Conclusions – final remarks from the coordinator • MANFRED – a success story • Consortium developed a common spirit • Transnational – Climate Change exceeds boundaries • Interdisciplinary (ozone vs. silviculture vs. eco-engineering) • Transdisciplinary (integration of stakeholders) • Knowledge transfer within and beyond the group http://www.manfredproject.eu http://www.facebook.com/manfredproject http://www.twitter.com/manfredproject