Download Europe and Alpine Region: surface and population

Background, goals and expectations
from the MANFRED Project: management
strategies to adapt Alpine Space forests
to climate change
Marc Hanewinkel
Swiss Federal Institute WSL
MANFRED Final Conference
“The Future Potential of European Mountain Forests: challenges and solutions
between Green Economy and Climate Change”
28th June, 2012 – FAO Headquarters, Rome (Italy)
MANFRED
Management strategies to adapt Spazio alpinoforests to climate change risk
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Outline
1.
Background: The challenges posed by climate change for forests
2.
Goals of the project
3.
MANFRED in brief: workpackages and expected outputs
4.
Conclusions and outlook
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Background: Climate change: challenges for forests
•
•
•
Change in productivity and increased mortality of tree species
Genetic adaptive capacity of tree species will be exceeded
– major tree species – range shifts
Extreme events – changing abiotic and biotic risks:
• Increased risk of fire
• Increased risk of avalanches / landslides / rockfall
• Higher level of storm damage risk
• Increased Ozone concentration
• Increased spread of pests and diseases
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MANFRED bridges the gap between research and practical
forest management and seeks to collect knowledge with regard
to climate change effects on 4 main topics:
•forest growth and land use changes,hazards & stressors, best
practices to face extreme events protection forests;
•identify hot spots with concrete need for action on the regional
& local level;
•develop management strategies able to adapt to changing
environmental conditions;
•contribute to the implementation of the suggested strategies in
cooperation with decision makers in 4 transnational case study
regions.
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Goals of the project
•
Main objectives: protection and preservation of forest ecosystems
as well as risk prevention and effective management of forests by
means of knowledge-based adaptive strategies.
•
These main goals of MANFRED were addressed in three steps
1)
Collection and sharing of knowledge regarding CC effects on
forest ecosystems, with focussing on the regional level
2)
Identification of action requirements on regional and local level
3)
Development of adaptive management strategies in cooperation
with decision makers on regional level.
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Use of results
• Target groups: local authorities, forest administrations, forest owners,
forest practitioners, and other decision makers
• MANFRED: practical help through direct involvement of the target
groups
• dissemination of practice-oriented outputs (handbooks, manuals,
maps)
• Transnational Workshops, excursions, training courses (with regional
stakeholders)
• international conference on adaptive management strategies in forest
ecosystems
• IT: integration of handbooks, guidelines, manuals as electronic tools in
a web platform (e.g. forestknowledge.net)
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MANFRED
6 countries (Alpine Space)
3.3 Mio € (2.4 Mio ERDF)
15 Partners
4 transnational case studies
Cerbu, G. 2011
FVA Freiburg, D
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MANFRED - Work Packages (WP)
WP 4: Climate and land use scenarios, tree provenances
WP 5: pests & pest complexes, hazard scenarios (storm, fire,
drought, ozone), risk maps & hotspots
WP 6: extreme events to forests and best practices to deal with
WP 7: Eco-engineering & protection forest management
WP 8 Adaptive forest management with transnational case studies
Scientific coordination: Prof. Dr. Marc Hanewinkel, WSL, Birmensdorf, CH
Project management: Gillian Cerbu, FVA, Freiburg, D
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WP 4: Climate scenarios/ provenances
4.1 Downscaling existing global/regional climate models
(GCM/RCM) for IPCC scenarios
4.2 Land use & land use change simulations for different
climate scenarios
4.3 Biome shift modelling (bioclimatic envelopes) for tree
species
4.4 Development of silvicultural strategies for mitigating effects
of CC & adapting forests to CC
4.5 a) trans-national Provenance Plot Network b) reaction of
tree species on regional level c) alternative seed sources
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Results: Potential future ranges
N. Zimmermann 2009
WSL, Birmensdorf, CH
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WP 5: hazards
5.1. Establishment of a monitoring network for pests, pest
complexes and diseases
5.2 Risk assessment for EU quarantine pathogens and to the
expected migration
5.3 Internet-based Pests and Diseases information platform
and Guide “Pest management”
5.4 Hazard scenarios for storm, fire, drought and ozone under
climate change
5.5 Development of local scale risk maps - Management
Guide for case-study areas and for risk-hotspots
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risk assessment for quarantine organisms
species list
Existing PRA
& PRA
methodology
Evaluation &
gathering
distribution
data
Climatic
envelopes &
Adaptaion of
PRA and
Endangered
areas
oriental chestnut gall wasp
EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH); Risk assessment of the oriental
chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus for the EU territory on
request from the European Commission. EFSA Journal 2010; 8(6):1619.
Probability of entry moderately likely, uncertainty moderate
Probability of establishment very likely, uncertainty low
Probability of spread likely, uncertainty low
Potential impact moderate, uncertainty high
endangered areas include: all areas of C. sativa fruit and timber
production in southern Europe, particularly the Mediterranean,
are endangered. e.g. in northern Portugal, northern Spain and
south-west France must be considered to be at the greatest risk.
The northern limits to the distribution of D. kuriphilus in Europe
can not be predicted.
MANFRED
Management strategies to adapt Alpine Space forests to climate change risk
Naumann, M. 2011
LWF, Freising, D
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WP 6: Extreme events
6.1 Definition of “extreme event”, questionnaire and
identification of areas with extreme events
6.2 Database and a web-Gis application of the census results.
6.3 Ranking of events, analyses on most significant events,
ecological and socio-economic impacts and management
practices
6.4 Network for sharing experiences (4 roundtables with
stakeholders and experts)
6.5 Best management practices and policies for prevention and
post-event management
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fires
Pan-alpine database on fires:
• more than 23.500 occurrences;
• large part of the Alpine Space
covered:
Oliveri, S., 2011
UNICATT, Brescia,I
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WP 7: Eco–engineering
7.1European guidebook (multilingual) on eco-engineering
7.2 Risk based, Forest Ecoengineering Projects (FEP) with a
transnational expert team and students
7.3 E-Learning course on the use of eco-engineering practices
for risk prevention
7.4 Alpine Platform on 'eco-engineering in alpine forests for
risk prevention‘
7.5 Documentary DVD on 'eco-engineering in alpine forests for
risk prevention'
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WP 8: Adaptive forest management
8.1 Compiling information on future forest conditions in the
alpine space from Wps 4, 5, 6
8.2 Strategic guidelines for Adaptive Forest Management for
the Alpine Space
8.3 Transboundary and transnational case studies in the Alpine
Space
8.4 Integrated manual for adaptive forest management in the
alpine space
8.5 Book on the "22nd-century potential" of forests in the alpine
region
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Conclusions – strategies:
•
•
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Adaptation strategies:
• Active:
• Change tree species (forest transformation)
• Use genetically better-adapted provenances
• Change forest management (reduce tree height, early
thinnings, reduced rotation times, mixed forests)
• Passive: use adaptation potential (succession,…)
Risk management !!
• Pest & diseases monitoring (invasive species)
• Effective risk modelling (fire, storm, drought, ozone, …)
• Early warning systems for fire
• Include uncertainty in decisions
Transnational approach
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Conclusions – final remarks from the coordinator
•
MANFRED – a success story
•
Consortium developed a common spirit
•
Transnational – Climate Change exceeds boundaries
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Interdisciplinary (ozone vs. silviculture vs. eco-engineering)
•
Transdisciplinary (integration of stakeholders)
•
Knowledge transfer within and beyond the group
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